College Football Week 11 Picks & Betting Preview: UNLV vs Colorado State and San Diego State vs Hawaii
UNLV Rebels vs Colorado State Rams
Colorado State has covered the spread in five straight meetings between these programs. The Mountain West rivals did not meet last season, setting up a renewed matchup with plenty of intrigue.
This will be Colorado State’s second game since firing former head coach Jay Norvell. The Rams were shut out in their first outing under the interim staff, falling 28–0 at Wyoming, but this week’s contest represents a fresh opportunity for improvement.
UNLV vs Colorado State Offensive & Defensive Breakdown
For UNLV, defensive struggles have dominated recent weeks. Four of the Rebels’ last five games have gone over the total, largely due to major breakdowns on that side of the ball.
- UNLV’s defense ranks in the bottom five nationally in EPA per rush attempt allowed.
- The Rebels have surrendered 56 and 40 points in back-to-back losses to Boise State and New Mexico.
- Over the last five contests, UNLV opponents have averaged 39.8 points per game.
That trend paints a clear picture — UNLV’s defense has been unable to contain opposing rushing attacks or limit explosive scoring drives.
UNLV vs Colorado State Prediction: Over 61.5
While Colorado State may not replicate the scoring pace of UNLV’s recent opponents, anything approaching that production level should be enough to push this matchup’s total over once again.
Both teams’ trajectories — the Rams’ post-coaching change adjustments and UNLV’s defensive vulnerabilities — make this one of Week 11’s most interesting Mountain West games.
⭐ Pick Rating: 3 Stars
San Diego State Aztecs vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Following Boise State’s loss to Fresno State last week — and with the Broncos now without their starting quarterback — San Diego State has emerged as the favorite to win the Mountain West.
The Aztecs have dominated this series recently, winning four straight meetings against Hawaii. However, the average margin of victory is just 4.75 points, and none of those games were decided by more than a touchdown.
That historical trend provides important context for this year’s matchup, as San Diego State enters favored by a touchdown.
Hawaii’s Recent Form
Hawaii’s competitiveness has been a defining feature of its 2025 campaign:
- The Warriors have not lost by more than a touchdown since Week 1 at Arizona.
- They benefited from a bye two weeks ago, reducing travel fatigue heading into this contest.
- Quarterback Micah Alejado impressed in his last outing, going 31-of-46 for 367 yards and three touchdownsagainst San Jose State in a back-and-forth game that came down to the final minute.
Hawaii’s consistent offensive output and late-game resilience have kept the program in nearly every contest.
San Diego State vs Hawaii Prediction: Hawaii +6.5
San Diego State’s strong month of play has elevated its standing in the Mountain West, but recent results between these two programs suggest a competitive game.
The Aztecs’ winning streak over Hawaii has come by narrow margins, and both sides enter Week 11 with confidence in their respective offensive units.
⭐ Pick Rating: 4 Stars
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