2026 Air Force Football Preview and Win Total Prediction
Despite missing a bowl game in back-to-back seasons, there is plenty of optimism surrounding the Air Force football program ahead of the 2026 season. With (hopefully) a full season of good health for QB Liam Szarka and the return of defensive coordinator Steve Russ, the vibes are high in Colorado Springs. GoldSheet’s college football specialist Bruce Marshall shares his thoughts on the upcoming Air Force football season.
2026 Air Force Football Preview
Mountain West Betting Odds
| Team | 2025 Record | 2026 Win Total | MW Odds | Make CFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 10-4 (6-3) | 7.5 (o -175 / u +135) | +260 | +1000 |
| New Mexico | 9-4 (6-2) | 8.5 (o +140 / u -180) | +265 | +1300 |
| North Dakota State | 12-1 (8-0) | 8.5 (o -180 / u +140) | +300 | +1500 |
| Air Force | 4-8 (3-5) | 7.5 (o +120 / u -150) | +550 | +4000 |
| Hawaii | 9-4 (5-3) | 7.5 (o +120 / u -150) | +480 | +2800 |
| Wyoming | 4-8 (2-6) | 5.5 (-115 each way) | +2000 | +50000 |
| Nevada | 3-9 (2-6) | 4.5 (o +120 / u -150) | +3000 | +50000 |
| San Jose State | 3-9 (2-6) | 4.5 (o -130 / u EV) | +1800 | +40000 |
| Northern Illinois | 3-9 (2-6) | 3.5 (o -120 / u -110) | +6000 | +50000 |
| UTEP | 2-10 (1-7) | 3.5 (o +110 / u -140) | +8000 | +50000 |
Odds above courtesy of DraftKings as of July 28. Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State have all left the conference and were replaced by North Dakota State, Northern Illinois and UTEP.
The Falcons went 4-8 straight-up, 5-7 against the spread last season. Their first six games all went over the total before oddsmakers (and opposing coaches) caught wind of the Falcons’ preferred style of play. Five of Air Force’s last six games stayed under the total. The Falcons lost to both Army and Navy by a field goal last season.
2026 Air Force Football Roster
Projected Returning Starters: 11 (Three on offense and eight on defense)
Projected Starting QB: Liam Szarka (Returning)
Returning Production: 59-percent (42-percent on offense and 75-percent on defense)
Incoming Talent Class: No. 141 Nationally / Last in Mountain West
Coaching Changes: No major changes. Long-time head coach Troy Calhoun and offensive coordinator Mike Thiessen are both back. Defensive coordinator Steve Russ returns to Colorado Springs after taking a one-year detour to UAB. Russ, a 1995 Air Force graduate, previously served as an assistant head coach and defensive coordinator for the Falcons.
Returning starters are courtesy of CBS Sports. Returning production is courtesy of Bill Connelly’s conference preview series at ESPN. Incoming talent rankings are courtesy of 247 Sports’ Composite Ratings, which capture the talent rankings of both incoming freshman and incoming transfers.
Air Force Football Outlook
Has Troy Calhoun lost the magic touch? Fair to ask after back-to-back subpar and bowl-less seasons from Air Force, which has often flown at much-higher altitudes during Calhoun’s 19-season run since succeeding mentor Fisher DeBerry in 2007. That link to the past might be poignant here, as DeBerry’s decorated run lasted for 23 fall campaigns thru 2006. Now approaching that sort of longevity in the job, might the hourglass be about empty at the academy for Calhoun?
Only once previous (2017-18) has Calhoun missed bowls in back-to-back years at the foot of the Rockies, but note the subsequent 2019 was one of Calhoun’s masterpieces when the Falcons soared to an 11-2 mark and a win over Mike Leach’s Washington State in the Cheez-It Bowl at Phoenix.
Calhoun’s unique Flexbone, with roots to the Wishbone that Kenny Hatfield introduced in Colorado Springs after succeeding Bill Parcells nearly a half-century ago, still has the capacity to generate big rushing yards. Last year’s 281.4 yards per game ranked 3rd nationally. The offense serves as a nuisance for opposing defenses, who almost uniformly detest facing Calhoun’s modernized version of the option.
Calhoun, however, needs a competent pilot to fly the Flexbone, and in the past two seasons, didn’t uncover electric Quentin Hayes (who subsequently left the academy) until later in the 2024 campaign, and didn’t identify clever Liam Szarka until after last season began.
Szarka, also adept at sneaking the occasional deep pass downfield, was proving quite dynamic until being KO’d in November, as the offense generated 38 ppg and 518 ypg in the four games in which he took the majority of the snaps. His presence in the fall should be a boon for Calhoun, as should north-south FB Owen Allen, now ready for a featured role after cracking the century mark in three of the last four games of 2025. Experienced pieces abound across the forward wall, and Calhoun’s alter-ego Mike Thiessen returns for his 12th season as offensive coordinator.
Still, the very best Air Force editions for DeBerry or Calhoun have all featured competent, playmaking defenses, of which last year’s platoon fell rather short, but the return of eight starters plus former DC Steve Russ, a staple of Calhoun’s staff for years before moving to the NFL in 2018 and now re-assuming his old coordinator role, has regional observers believing the stop unit should see marked improvement.
Having stayed behind in the Mountain West after much of the top-tier of the loop switched alliance to the new-look Pac-12 might also prove a plus for the Falcons, who get three of their four toughest games (North Dakota State, Navy, and UNLV) all at home, while trekking to West Point on November 7 for another Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy battle vs. Army.
2026 Air Force Football Win Total Prediction
As Air Force never was much involved in the transfer market (at least incoming), the portal era has had little impact on the Falcons, who are hoping that the program’s continuity and good health (knock on wood) for dynamic QB Szarka foretells a return to the postseason and a potential big year beneath Pike’s Peak.
Off the field, we would keep an eye on developments in the administration, especially as recently-removed AD Nathan Pine had been an ardent Calhoun supporter, but we suspect they know better than to consider Calhoun’s job in any jeopardy.
True, clearing 7.5 wins is a pretty big ask after winning just four a year ago, but as long as Szarka stays out of the infirmary, the Falcons are poised for a dramatic recovery this fall. After all, we’ve seen it before from Calhoun. Decent prices around +120 are available on the “over” into late July. OVER 7.5 WINS (+120)
2026 Air Force Football Schedule
| Date | Day | Home/Away | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 5 | Sat | Home | Duquesne |
| September 12 | Sat | Home | North Dakota State |
| Bye | |||
| September 26 | Sat | Road | Nevada |
| October 3 | Sat | Home | Navy |
| October 10 | Sat | Road | Northern Illinois |
| October 17 | Sat | Home | UNLV |
| October 23 | Fri | Road | Wyoming |
| October 31 | Sat | Home | UConn |
| November 7 | Sat | Road | Army |
| November 14 | Sat | Home | San Jose State |
| November 20 | Fri | Home | UTEP |
| November 27 | Fri | Road | New Mexico |
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Air Force football games from their release in May all the way through Week 1 in September. Find free college football picks from season win total bets through National Championship futures on our free picks pages.
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