2021 Heisman Betting Odds Update: NCAAF Week 6

Tracking the Heisman Betting Market

WagerTalk college football handicapper Tony Mejia offers his NCAAF Week 6 Heisman betting update. At DraftKings Sports Book, Alabama quarterback Bryce Young has emerged as the +120 Heisman betting favorite, followed by Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral (+200).

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Heisman Betting Favorite

Alabama QB Bryce Young is favored to win the 2021 Heisman, but at this point in the season, I am going to encourage you to look elsewhere. At one point deep into the 2020-21 NBA season, mid-February to be exact, LeBron James was pulling ahead as the MVP favorite. He was ahead of eventual MVP Nikola Jokic, two-time reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and 76ers center Joel Embiid, the most impressive two-way force in the game.

The Lakers appeared headed to a second straight title. I wrote that no one should be betting on James to win his fifth MVP award, which had nothing to do with disrespecting the “King.” Simply put, the value was gone and there was too much that could go wrong and too many variables in play with months remaining in the season.

Nearly eight months later, we’re running with the same script in college football now that Alabama’s Bryce Young has ascended into the role of Heisman betting favorite.

Over the weekend, the Alabama defense did their second-year freshman quarterback a solid by dominating against Ole Miss QB Matt Corral, who came into the Oct. 2 showdown as the newly minted favorite to win college football’s most prestigious individual award.

Corral was +150 at DraftKings entering the Rebels’ visit to Tuscaloosa on Saturday, while Young was fetching +175 as the No. 2 option. Corral led Ole Miss on an 83-yard opening drive that ended on fourth down before reaching the Alabama end zone, leaving his team without points. Ole Miss’ offense was then limited to just 26 yards the rest of the half.

The Crimson Tide won 42-21 after racing out to a 28-0 halftime edge, and Corral has been demoted to No. 2 behind Young at every shop you look. Young is now +120 at DraftKings and +125 at BetMGM and FanDuel to win the award, making him the heavy Heisman betting favorite for the first time. Before the season, Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler, Corral, North Carolina QB Sam Howell, Iowa State RB Breece Hall, Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei, Georgia QB J.T. Daniels and his former teammate, USC QB Kedon Slovis, were among the names most often rattled off as front-runners.

Young had only thrown 22 passes entering the season, completing 13 as a true freshman playing behind Mac Jones. Although he was in the conversation considering that he had already emerged as the likely starter at the nation’s premier program, DraftKings listed him at +400 to win the Heisman. Caesars had 9-to-1 odds on him.

We may be in the midst of the final week where you can still bet Young at plus-money to win the Heisman. Laying at least $110 to win $100 seems like it’s just around the corner.

Alabama must still visit Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Auburn in addition to hosting LSU, but the Crimson Tide will be a double-digit favorite against all those teams. Young will face arguably the toughest defense he’ll see until that likely showdown with the Bulldogs when he matches up with A&M this weekend in College Station, but the Tide is close to a 20-point favorite in the game.

The SEC Championship game is set for Dec. 4 and Heisman ballots are due on Dec. 6, so there’s no question that if Georgia and Alabama do square off as undefeated division champs, whoever plays best in that game has a huge advantage. If it’s Young, he’ll be a Heisman betting lock. However, there’s someone in his own backfield who might emerge.

Alabama’s Brian Robinson and Will Anderson earn weekly honors from Maxwell Football Club.https://t.co/XYPT8aP5ba

— Touchdown Alabama (@TDAlabamaMag) October 5, 2021

Brian Robinson Jr. Emerging

Brian Robinson Jr., a Tuscaloosa product, has served in a backup role since arriving at Alabama in 2017 but had his coming out party against Ole Miss. The 6-foot-1 running is a load to bring down and comes off a four-touchdown game that gives him six scores on the season. The 230-pounder dealt with some injuries in 2021 but now looks to be in line for a significant number of carries since second-year freshman Jase McClellan has been lost for the season due to a knee injury.

Robinson carried the ball 36 times against Ole Miss, a career-high that surprised the running back himself. He’d never even topped 30 carries at Tuscaloosa H.S. Now a fifth-year senior, Robinson had accrued just 274 carries and gained 1,361 yards over his first four seasons while working behind Damien Harris (Patriots), Josh Jacobs (Raiders) and Najee Harris (Steelers), all of whom are first-string backs in the NFL now. Robinson is up to 21 career touchdowns and has averaged five yards per carry to date.

Freshmen Roydell Williams and Trey Sanders will see increased workloads with McClellan out, but if the Ole Miss game is an indication, it’s going to be Robinson’s show. New Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and offensive line coach Doug Marrone are going to trust the team’s big guys up front and will utilize the ground game more often than predecessor Steve Sarkisian, now the head coach at Texas.

Sarkisian preferred a pass-happy approach since he had a veteran quarterback and elite receivers at his disposal in addition to Harris. Young is poised beyond his years but lacks experience. That opens the door for Robinson to supplant him as the straw that stirs the drink for Alabama’s offense. From a value standpoint, he’s the best bet available regardless of sport in the futures game.

As of Oct. 6, Robinson was +10000 at FanDuel and +8000 at BetMGM. DraftKings reduced their Heisman betting odds on the Alabama running back to +2500, recognizing the possibility that he rises fast. Backing Robinson as a 100-to-1 shot is a must.

Heisman Betting Front-Runners

Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder is running third behind Young and Corral after leading his team past Notre Dame in South Bend. Tough games against UCF, unbeaten SMU and the American Athletic Conference Championship remain, but Cincinnati is going to be favored to finish the season undefeated prior the college football playoff rankings being released.

Ridder, a four-year starter who led the Bearcats to a 9-1 finish in 2020 and the AAC title behind a 27-24 conquest of Tulsa, was named the Davey O’Brien National Quarterback of the Week after helping his team take down the Fighting Irish. His odds have now come down to +1600 at FanDuel, +1400 at BetMGM and +1200 at DraftKings.

Oklahoma’s Rattler, the preseason Heisman favorite, remains in the mix despite his odds now standing at +2000 FanDuel and +2500 at BetMGM and DraftKings. Ohio State freshman CJ Stroud (+1600 FanDuel/BetMGM, +2000 DK), Pittsburgh senior Kenny Pickett (+3500 BetMGM, +4000 FanDuel/DK) and Georgia’s JT Daniels (+10000 FanDuel, +8000 BetMGM, +4000 DK), currently injured, are other quarterbacks who remain on the radar.

Rattler has seen his draft stock slip significantly due to questionable decision-making and accuracy issues. Entering August, he was not only expected to win the Heisman, he was also likely to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. He’s now getting a mid-first round grade at best.

Outside of a 76-0 win over FCS member Western Carolina, the Sooners have failed to cover a single spread against an FBS foe. Oklahoma defeated Tulane 40-35, Nebraska 23-16, West Virginia 16-13 and Kansas State 37-31 despite being a double-digit favorite in all of those games.

Rattler shouldn’t be written off since the Sooners have at least managed to avoid an upset. His Heisman hopes aren’t a lost cause like they are for UNC’s Sam Howell or Clemson’s Uiagalelei. Currently, Rattler has completed over 76 percent of his passes and has a 10-4 TD-INT ratio but half of his touchdown passes came in that rout against the Catamounts. Against FBS foes, it’s just 5-4. Rattler threw 28 TD passes last season and still has statement games against Texas and TCU scheduled for this month and will face Iowa State and Oklahoma State come November.

Ohio State’s Stroud was at the controls for his team’s upset loss to Oregon but has the top receiving trio in the nation at his disposal. The Buckeyes’ redshirt freshman has already passed for 13 touchdowns and 1,293 yards in just four contests. He sat out the Akron win due to injury but lit up Rutgers for five touchdown passes to open October, setting the stage for a big run after Ohio State’s mid-October bye. Remaining games against Indiana, Penn State, Nebraska, Purdue, Michigan State and Michigan mean there will be plenty of opportunities for Stroud to make a serious run.

With Clemson and UNC already having dropped a pair of games this season, the ACC appears wide open. Pitt’s Pickett, who already has broken some of Dan Marino’s school records, just completed a three-game stretch where he thew 15 TD passes, eclipsing Marino’s best run of 13 in that same span back in 1981. He now has 9,751 passing yards over a five-season career and has his sights set on Alex Van Pelt’s school record of 11,267 yards set from ’89-’92. Pitt is tied at 1-0 with Virginia Tech atop the ACC Coastal Division and visits Blacksburg on Oct. 16 following this week’s bye. They’ll play Clemson and Miami to close out the month, so eyeballs will definitely be on Pickett as he keeps climbing the charts. With a 19-1 TD-INT ratio working, Pickett’s odds of 40-to-1 are awfully tempting.

Georgia’s Daniels is questionable going forward due to a lat injury, but the hope is that he’ll be healthy for the Dawgs’ toughest games against Kentucky (Oct. 16), Florida (Oct. 30), Tennessee (Nov. 13), Georgia Tech (Nov. 27) and the SEC Championship (Dec. 4). It’s tough to back him due to concerns that he’ll remain injured, but odds of 100-to-1 at FanDuel and 80-to-1 at Bet MGM are enticing when you consider he can change everything by conquering the Tide just before the votes are counted.

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— Tony Mejia (@MejiaDinero) October 7, 2021

College Football Daily

Can Notre Dame bounce back after last week’s loss to Cincinnati, or will the Irish hangover linger a little longer? Join Joe Raineri, Dave Cokin, Teddy Covers and Tony Mejia for College Football Daily as we preview the marquee Week 6 college football matchups, including Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame; Texas Tech vs TCU; Baylor vs West Virginia; and Ohio State vs Maryland.

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