Rutgers vs Miami Free Picks: Pinstripe Bowl Massive Predictions, Best Bets 12/28

Miami Hurricanes vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Best Bets: Pinstripe Bowl Preview & Prediction

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his expert analysis of The Pinstripe Bowl being played on December 28th, between Miami and Rutgers. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting?

Should anyone be surprised that Miami finished just 7-5?  They stood at 6-2, but got there with a pair of tossup overtime wins.  Losses to NC St, Florida State and Louisville put them right in the middle of the pack.  Rutgers keeps plodding along, but for them, 6-6 is a step in the right direction. 

They have a fully one-dimensional offense, but also field a tenacious defense.  They’ll likely be the more motivated team in this spot, but will that be enough?  Let’s see if there’s an edge to be had.  

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Pinstripe Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Miami Overview

QB Van Dyke was decent, but he’s gone.  Jacurri Brown is 6’4” and did not attempt a pass in 2023.  That’s how many bowl games now where we have the 3^rd string QB starting?  How can we project his numbers? 

The first thought is that Miami will try to be run centric, and the rush figures improved in 2023, going 5.15-174 per game.  Two fine RB’s are available but two of the TEN starters who will be missing are along the OL.  I have only two comps for how Rutgers might defend the run in this spot, and the totals were 66-271, which were fairly similar to what they gave up all season long. 

Miami needs to establish the run and stick to it for this game.  Two of their top WR’s are playing, while TE play was down more than ever this past season.  Rutgers performed exactly as I expected vs. the pass, so the main question will be this: How accurate will the raw QB be, as these two WR’s are capable of making a splash. 

Pinstripe Bowl Picks: Miami Has a Solid Defense and Kicking

Miami outperformed my rush and pass defensive projections.  At full strength, this would be a big issue for the vanilla Rutgers offense.  About five defensive starters will be missing.  The secondary could be affected, but passing is not a Rutgers strong suit.  The top two sack specialists are playing.  The Rutgers OL has done a good job in protection.  Miami’s kick returner remains.  The PK was 21-25.

PinStripe Bowl Best Bets – Take a Look at Rutgers

Rutgers is one of the worst teams in all of the NCAA at passing the football, so it’s a good thing that the run game improved.  Their workhorse RB ran for almost 1,100 yards (5.05 per carry), and his performance vs. comparable teams was admirable.  I chart him here at 22-88, but if this becomes a defensive struggle, he’ll carry even more than that. 

QB Wimsett has severe accuracy issues. 

He “improved” to 48.4%, with a paltry 10-8 ratio.  I’m projecting 12-26, for nearly 140 yards, and an overall rush total of no more than 25 yards. 

Maybe with Miami having five starters out those numbers can be better, and remember, the site of this game likely favors Rutgers, as I doubt Miami fans will travel to the Bronx to see their team play against a non-marque opponent.  There’s actually modest WR talent on the team, but their TE is injured. 

Clearly, they need to run effectively and/or win the turnover battle vs. Miami’s raw QB.  The defense “slightly” improved, and it took some effort for Big Ten opponents to score like they used to in the past.  The final points against figure came to about 25 per game in conference play. 

Two back seven starters will miss the game.  Yards-per-completion vs. Rutgers was limited, and that is a good sign.  Kicking was solid at 14-17.  Rutgers had just 19 sacks, but now face a rather raw QB.

Pinstripe Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

How will Miami’s raw QB fare.  Will there be issues protecting him when at full strength, no issues would have been present?  Can Rutgers slow down a good group of RB’s and WR’s?  What effect will Miami’s lack of defensive starters have in this game? 

Can Rutgers shorten the game with their RB carrying the ball as many as 30 times?  Who wins when Miami’s pass rushers square off vs. a decent Rutgers team in pass protection?  Will Miami be motivated in this spot?

Pinstripe Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

We’re in a group of bowl games where no concrete decisions are possible.  Barring multiple defensive turnovers, the UNDER might be the best look. The odds are so low right now that Miami seems to carry some value, but it’s a true “gamble” figuring out what the QB is capable of.

The Pick: Pinstripe Bowl Prediction!

Additional recommendations.  QB Wimsett under his rush total with a reasonable line.  The Rutgers RB OVER for number of carries.  Consider one Miami RB OVER his rushing total.

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