Peach Bowl Free Picks : Mississippi vs. Penn State Best Bets, #1 Predictions 12/30

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Best Bets: Peach Bowl Analysis & Massive Predictions

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers huge betting picks on The Peach Bowl being played on December 30th, between Mississippi and Penn State. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top predictions here.

Mississippi lost twice, but there’s no shame in losing to Georgia and Alabama.  Penn State lost twice, but there’s no shame in losing to Ohio State and Michigan. 

Both schools would love to get over that hump, but on this day, two very good programs instead square off against each other.  This is will one of the better games to handicap.

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Peach Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Mississippi Overview

Lane Kiffin vowed to finish this season stronger than the last, when adversity got the best of them.  Mission accomplished.  QB Dart was efficient, but not spectacular.  He has limited turnovers, and has a nice run skill set.  The Penn State defense will be a great test in both areas.  RB Judkins had a banner 2022 and a very slow start to 2023. 

His yards-per-carry dropped significantly (4.4), which had a direct effect on Mississippi’s yearly output (5.65 in 2022, 4.5 in 2023).  He did find the endzone, with 15 rushing TD’s.  I like the WR talent, and again, we’ll have a great chess match brewing.  Kiffin is one of the best at designing an offense, but they face a very stingy Penn State defense. 

Ole Miss Defense Overview: Peach Bowl Analysis

In good news, Mississippi allowed just 4.05 yards-per-carry (4.55 in 2022).  Better teams broke through, so I do not expect complete stoppage in this game.  The goal would be to limit Penn State to about 160 yards (they averaged 190). 

This is the 6^th straight season that the Rebels have allowed over 60% through the air (62%).  I project near seasonal averages allowed in this game, with a slight chance for even better.  In player news, one of their top pass rushers won’t play, but so far most of the other starters are playing.  Kicking was at 16-21, and the sack ratio was 34-26.  Two concerns are their -5:30 time of possession disadvantage and the 19 rushing TD’s allowed.  

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Peach Bowl Picks: Penn State Strengths and Weaknesses

QB Allar is developing, but had some rough outings vs. the top defensive teams he faced with the exception of Iowa.  Mississippi is a step up from many defenses faced, so let’s put Allar near his seasonal numbers for this one.  He threw just one interception on the season.  Penn State has two solid RB’s who share the load almost equally. 

Allen outperformed Singleton this season and could be a threat to have a better than average game.  Like with Mississippi, Penn State has a variety of reliable WR’s, plus some stout TE’s.  They may lack the athleticism of the Rebels, but they can move the chains.

Penn State’s Defense is Peachy…

It’s not a shock that Penn State plays great defense.  The run defense (3.05 per carry) was even better than usual and the pass defense (58%) was solid, although down from 2022.  In doing a deeper dive, Penn State allowed 95-140 through the air in games 7-12.  This is where QB Dart needs to make a difference.  The return game is solid, but the punt returner may or may not play (in the portal). 

The sack ratio was tremendous at 48-15.  Their main kicker was 18-22.  Their time of possession figure was +6:05.  In coaching and player news, defensive coordinator Manny Diaz is now the Duke Head Coach.  Several players are in the portal, but at the present time, it has been reported that some will play in this bowl game.  Watch this development carefully.  

Peach Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Can QB Dart avoid Penn State’s pass rush?  If so, he has some good matchups downfield.  Can Mississippi get off the field?  They clearly project to a below par time of possession figure, and now must slow down or stop two capable RB’s.

Peach Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

Maybe you can take 1-2 points off Penn State’s Power Number due to site of game and loss of Manny Diaz, but that still gives Penn State value.  The Nittany Lions have the point/rush stat double in their favor, which is typically a solid edge. 

They are currently 13-4 against the spread as a bowl favorite, and we know James Franklin takes every game (and every snap) seriously. 

I thought coming into this writing I would like Mississippi, but bad things happen when I go against the numbers I’ve just listed.  It’s a bowl season like no other, so Power Numbers often take a very long back seat to bowl motivation.  For this game, the opt-outs as of 12/26 are not that much a factor, and both teams seem motivated.

The Pick: Peach Bowl Prediction!

 I have a token play UNDER 49 points, and would lean Penn State at the current line of -5 (possible play at -4).  As for the player news, my best recommendation right now is going UNDER RB Junkins rushing total of 87.5 yards.

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