Boca Raton Bowl Predictions : Syracuse vs USF Free Picks, Best Bets 12/21

Syracuse Orangemen vs USF Bulls Best Bets: Boca Raton Bowl Preview & Prediction

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky gives you tips on The Boca Raton Bowl being played on December 21st, between South Florida and USF. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting?

South Florida (USF) is thrilled to be bowling.  6-6 doesn’t sound like much, but the Bulls went 4-29 the past three seasons before new coach Alex Golesh got this thing going in the right direction. 

Conversely, Syracuse is less than thrilled to play this game. 

Streaky as always, they needed a victory over Wake Forest to achieve 6-6.  They got that win, but without Head Coach Dino Babers, who was fired just prior to that game. 

Syracuse is clearly the higher rated team, both by Power Numbers and by on-field data.  This game will be a classic test case for how much motivation might play a part in deciding bowl outcomes. 

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The Boca Raton Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: USF Overview

USF saw improvement in most offensive areas.  They averaged 31 points per game, and 28 points per game vs. five bowl teams.  They ran for over 180 yards per game, led by freshman QB Brown (7435, 11 rush TD’s) and senior RB Wright (757-4.5-7 rush TD’s). 

Using comparable opponent analysis, USF does not project to rush for more than 4.0 per carry in this spot, partially due to their 40 sacks allowed (I do not use my adjusted rush stat formula teams in the American Conference).  

Brown’s debut season as a passer was quite good, at 64% with a 23-11 ratio.  I expect he can achieve 64% in this spot, but he needs to tone down the interceptions (eight of twelve games with an interception). 

Defense is Better But Still Not Good

USF’s defense has been quite poor the last few seasons, and this year’s version still has work to do. 

They allowed 35 points per game, a decent 4.4 (for them) yards per rush attempt, and 61% through the air, with a modest 21 defensive sacks.  Kicking was average.

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Boca Raton Bowl Picks: Syracuse Strengths and Weaknesses

In 2022, Syracuse opened with a perfect 4-0 mark vs. bowl teams.  Fast forward to now, where the Orange went winless (0-6) vs. 2023 bowl teams.  The run game did improve, thanks to freshman RB Allen, who had a stat sheet of 1,062-4.7, with 9 rush TD’s.  QB Shrader adds a rushing dynamic to the mix, and he has nearly 2,400 career rushing yards, and 37 rushing TD’s! 

His career figures in the pass game are 47 TD’s and 22 interceptions, with improved accuracy.  He missed much of November but is slated to be fully healthy for this game.  No WR or TE stood out this season, and the unit is younger than usual. 

Defensive numbers were modest, but the run defense did show improvement.  Penalties were an issue, leading to a negative 3:27 time of possession figure.  Kicking dropped off (10-16).  The sack ratio was also modest, at 26-28.

Boca Raton Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

How motivated is Syracuse?  I think their QB will be fine, but the rest of the team can’t be too excited to play USF with an interim coaching staff.  Can the young USF offense take advantage of a relatively average Syracuse defense?  What about USF’s defense?  The extra bowl practices are nice, but the team talent suggests that Syracuse can have some success.

Boca Raton Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

The portal news is relatively quiet, at least as far as impact players go.  The good news is that the interim coach is 1-0.  He is slated to remain with Syracuse for 2024, with a role to be determined.  On paper, the Orange have numerous edges. 

They are both the rush pick and the point stat pick (that combination is typically 66% in bowl games vs. the spread).  They have line value.  They have a far more experienced QB who is a dual threat.

The Pick: Boca Raton Bowl Prediction!

What Syracuse lacks is overall motivation, especially playing a team from a lower-level conference. 

However, with so many on-field edges, I have to side with the Orange.  Take Syracuse moneyline and possibly spread as well. Let’s see if QB Shrader can put together a final game that overcomes playing a team full of excitement.

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