Cal Poly vs Arizona Predictions, Picks and Odds

Arizona did not begin its post-Final Four era the way anyone in Tucson expected. The Wildcats shot just 37% in an 84-75 loss to UCLA, wasting a 38-point night from Ivan Kharchenkov. Now they return to McKale Center looking to extend an 18-game winning streak in home openers, but they face a Cal Poly team that returns 13 players and more than 83% of its scoring.

With Arizona laying more than 30 points and the total climbing five points since opening, this Cal Poly vs Arizona matchup offers real value for bettors willing to look past the name on the jersey. Before you set your college basketball predictions, here is the full breakdown of the odds, line movement, matchups, and best bets.

Cal Poly vs Arizona Quick Picks and Prediction

Spread Pick: Cal Poly +30.5 (-105)
Total Pick: Under 173.5 (-112)
Projected Final Score: Arizona 96, Cal Poly 70

Odds and Line Movement for Cal Poly vs Arizona

The Cal Poly Mustangs visit the No. 5 Arizona Wildcats on November 5, 2026, at 10:30 PM ET at McKale Center at ALKEME Arena in Tucson. Arizona opened as a 29.5-point favorite and has moved to -30.5, touching -31.5 briefly. The total has surged from 168.5 to 173.5, even as 100% of the recorded money and tickets have landed on the under. Check the latest live odds before tipoff.

Opening Odds

Team	Spread	Total
Cal Poly	+29.5 (-105)	Over 168.5 (-112)
Arizona	-29.5 (-115)	Under 168.5 (-108)

Current Odds

Team	Spread	Total
Cal Poly	+30.5 (-105)	Over 173.5 (-108)
Arizona	-30.5 (-115)	Under 173.5 (-112)

Line Movement – Spread

Date	Cal Poly	Arizona
11/04	+30.5 (-105)	-30.5 (-115)
11/04	+31.5 (-112)	-31.5 (-108)
11/04	+30.5 (-108)	-30.5 (-112)
11/04	+29.5 (-105)	-29.5 (-115)
11/04	+30.5 (-115)	-30.5 (-105)
11/04	+29.5 (-105)	-29.5 (-115)

Line Movement – Total

Date	Over	Under	Public ($, #)
11/05	173.5 (-108)	173.5 (-112)	UN 100%, UN 100%
11/05	172.5 (-110)	172.5 (-110)	UN 100%, UN 100%
11/04	172.5 (-112)	172.5 (-108)	UN 100%, UN 100%
11/04	172.5 (-108)	172.5 (-112)	—
11/04	171.5 (-112)	171.5 (-108)	—
11/04	171.5 (-105)	171.5 (-115)	—
11/04	171.5 (-110)	171.5 (-110)	—
11/04	169.5 (-108)	169.5 (-112)	—
11/04	169.5 (-112)	169.5 (-108)	—
11/04	168.5 (-112)	168.5 (-108)	—

Key Matchups and Handicap: Cal Poly vs Arizona

This early-season matchup pits a talented but heavily reshuffled Arizona roster against one of the most experienced mid-major teams in the country. Arizona holds clear advantages in size and overall talent, but covering a spread north of 30 points requires sustained dominance, and the Wildcats’ offense has yet to show it is in sync.

Arizona Looking to Rebound From a UCLA Loss

Arizona enters 0-1 after an 84-75 loss to UCLA in which it shot just 37% from the field while collecting 44 rebounds and 13 assists. Sophomore Ivan Kharchenkov was outstanding, posting 38 points and 10 rebounds. North Carolina transfer Derek Dixon added 18 points, and Washington transfer JJ Mandaquit dished out six assists without committing a turnover. The talent is clearly there, but head coach Tommy Lloyd will want much better offensive efficiency from the group as a whole.

ARIZ Reloaded After a Final Four Run

Arizona experienced significant turnover following its Final Four appearance. Jaden Bradley, Tobe Awaka, and Anthony Dell’Orso exhausted their eligibility, while Koa Peat and Brayden Burries left for the NBA. The Wildcats reloaded with Dixon, Mandaquit, Clemson transfer RJ Godfrey, Nebraska transfer Ugnius Jarusevicius, and highly regarded freshman Caleb Holt. Building chemistry among that many new pieces typically takes time.

Arizona Frontcourt Depth in Question

Godfrey’s eligibility remains unresolved, which could limit Arizona’s frontcourt depth. Motiejus Krivas still provides considerable size inside, giving the Wildcats a clear interior edge, but a thinner rotation could make it harder to maintain the relentless pace needed to cover such a large number.

Cal Poly Brings Rare Continuity

Cal Poly enters with substantially greater roster continuity than most programs, returning 13 players and more than 83% of its scoring production. Unlike many teams, the Mustangs experienced minimal transfer-portal departures. Hamad Mousa, who transferred from Dayton before last season, scored 18 points in a 78-62 opening win over Cal State San Marcos after averaging 20.4 points per game during the 2025-26 campaign. Cayden Ward grabbed 11 rebounds, and Jackson Mosley recorded five assists.

Mustangs Can Shoot and Run

The Mustangs shot 44% from the field, collected 59 rebounds, and made 12 three-pointers against Cal State San Marcos. Their up-tempo offense and perimeter shooting could generate scoring opportunities, although facing Arizona’s athleticism represents a substantial increase in competition. An experienced group that can knock down threes has a chance to keep the margin manageable.

CP vs ARIZ Betting Trends

Arizona has won 18 consecutive home openers.
Arizona is 4-0 all-time against Cal Poly.
Arizona lost 84-75 to UCLA in its season opener while shooting 37% from the field.
Cal Poly opened with a 78-62 win over Cal State San Marcos and made 12 three-pointers.
Cal Poly returns 13 players and more than 83% of its scoring.
The spread has moved from Arizona -29.5 to -30.5.
The total has climbed from 168.5 to 173.5 despite 100% of recorded money on the under.

CP vs ARIZ Key Injuries and Notes

Arizona: RJ Godfrey’s eligibility remains unresolved.
Arizona: Ivan Kharchenkov scored 38 points with 10 rebounds against UCLA.
Arizona: Newcomers include Derek Dixon, JJ Mandaquit, Ugnius Jarusevicius, and freshman Caleb Holt.
Arizona: Motiejus Krivas anchors the interior.
Cal Poly: No major new injury absence has been established.
Cal Poly: Hamad Mousa averaged 20.4 points per game last season and scored 18 in the opener.

Cal Poly vs Arizona ATS and Total Picks

ATS Pick: Cal Poly +30.5 (-105). Arizona is the far more talented team, but laying more than 30 points with a reshuffled roster that just shot 37% is a big ask. Cal Poly’s experience, continuity, and perimeter shooting give it a path to stay within the number, especially if Arizona’s frontcourt depth is limited by Godfrey’s eligibility situation.

Total Pick: Under 173.5 (-112). The total has climbed five points from the opener, but all the recorded money is on the under. Arizona’s offense was inefficient in its opener, and the Wildcats’ size advantage inside should allow them to control the glass and limit Cal Poly’s second chances. This number has been pushed too high.

Cal Poly vs Arizona Best Bets

Best Bet: Cal Poly +30.5 (-105)
Total Pick: Under 173.5 (-112)
Key Factor: Cal Poly’s experience and continuity against Arizona’s new-look rotation
X-Factor: Hamad Mousa’s scoring and Cal Poly’s three-point shooting

Final Score Prediction for Cal Poly vs Arizona

Arizona should bounce back and extend its home opener winning streak, but Cal Poly’s veteran roster and perimeter shooting can keep this from turning into a 30-point rout. Expect a comfortable Wildcats win that falls short of the spread and stays under the inflated total.