Home Run Prop Picks, Predictions and Odds 7/12/22

Today’s MLB Home Run Prop Bets For July 12

Austin Riley hit his 24th home run last night as he’s what some might say is the biggest all-star snub. WagerTalk content contributor Kyle Kargel provides his daily home run prop picks and predictions for Tuesday, July 12 with odds provided by PointsBet.

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Home Run Prop Prediction 1: Manny Machado (+220)

The Rockies are rolling out left-hander Austin Gomber tonight at home against the Padres and he sports a bloated 6.64 ERA at home and 6.98 ERA during night games so far this season.

In his two July starts Gomber has allowed seven earned runs including three home runs in 10.2 innings pitched, all against the Diamondbacks. He has a much tougher opponent in the Padres tonight and Manny Machado is looking to build off his day yesterday in which he went 2-5 with a home run.

Eight of Machado’s 15 home runs have come against lefties and he hits .278 against southpaws as well. Gomber has allowed 13 home runs to right handed hitters and if you breakdown the numbers he gives up a home run every 18 right handed hitter at-bats.

On the season against the Rockies Machado is 9-30 with three home runs. Machado is listed at +220 but if you want better odds look at Jake Cronenworth at +450 who hit a home run yesterday as well or Trent Grisham at +650.

Home Run Prop Prediction 2: Gleyber Torres (+370)

The Reds come storming into Yankee Stadium having won four straight games including a sweep of the Rays at home. The Yankees lost their last two against Boston and are looking to take out some anger on a vulnerable opponent.

Sure, we could go with the power bats to hit a home run tonight but let’s go with some more value in Gleyber Torres.

He hit 38 home runs in 2019, fell to nine in 2021 and has rebounded well so far this season already hitting 13. The problem is he doesn’t have a home run in July yet despite hitting a whopping .419. The power has to come soon so why not tonight against Reds starter Graham Ashcraft who has a 6.98 road ERA this season.

In his last road start against the lowly Cubs, he pitched 2.1 innings and allowed seven earned runs. If Torres doesn’t have a home run by the time Ashcraft exits the game, the Reds bullpen in vulnerable as well providing the league’s worst bullpen ERA and allowing the second most home runs of any MLB bullpen.

Get Torres at +370 but if you want the Yankees bigger bats, consider Aaron Judge at +170 or Giancarlo Stanton at +210.

Interested in placing a home run prop bet? PointsBet is offering two risk-free bets up to $2,000 for bettors in New Jersey, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Colorado, Michigan, Virginia and New York.

First Pitch | MLB Betting Preview for Tuesday, July 12

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