North Dakota State vs San Francisco Predictions, Picks and Odds | November 6, 2026
North Dakota State’s California road trip got off to a brutal start. The Bison were blown out by 41 points at Saint Mary’s on Wednesday, allowing the Gaels to shoot a staggering 67% from the field, and no North Dakota State starter reached double figures.
Now the trip continues to the Hilltop, where San Francisco is coming off an impressive opening win behind a pair of international newcomers who look ready to make an immediate impact. The market has noticed, pushing the Dons from 7.5 to 9.5.
This North Dakota State vs San Francisco matchup sets up as another tough night for a Bison team still searching for answers. Before you lock in your free college basketball predictions, here is the full breakdown of the odds, line movement, matchups, and best bets.
North Dakota State vs San Francisco Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: San Francisco -9.5 (-108)
- Total Pick: Over 146.5 (-108)
- Projected Final Score: San Francisco 82, North Dakota State 66
Odds and Line Movement for North Dakota State vs San Francisco
San Francisco opened as a 7.5-point favorite and has been steadily bet up, toggling between 8.5 and 9.5 several times before settling at -9.5. The total has held firm at 146.5 since opening, with the juice shifting slightly toward the under. Compare the latest live odds to find the best number before tipoff.
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | +7.5 (-102) | Over 146.5 (-115) |
| San Francisco | -7.5 (-118) | Under 146.5 (-105) |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | +9.5 (-112) | Over 146.5 (-108) |
| San Francisco | -9.5 (-108) | Under 146.5 (-112) |
Line Movement – Spread
| Date | North Dakota State | San Francisco |
|---|---|---|
| 11/05 | +9.5 (-112) | -9.5 (-108) |
| 11/05 | +8.5 (-105) | -8.5 (-115) |
| 11/05 | +9.5 (-112) | -9.5 (-108) |
| 11/05 | +8.5 (-105) | -8.5 (-115) |
| 11/05 | +9.5 (-112) | -9.5 (-108) |
| 11/05 | +8.5 (-105) | -8.5 (-115) |
| 11/05 | +9.5 (-112) | -9.5 (-108) |
| 11/05 | +8.5 (-105) | -8.5 (-115) |
| 11/05 | +9.5 (-112) | -9.5 (-108) |
| 11/05 | +8.5 (-105) | -8.5 (-115) |
| 11/05 | +8.5 (-112) | -8.5 (-108) |
| 11/05 | +7.5 (-108) | -7.5 (-112) |
| 11/05 | +7.5 (-102) | -7.5 (-118) |
Line Movement – Total
| Date | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 11/05 | 146.5 (-108) | 146.5 (-112) |
| 11/05 | 146.5 (-115) | 146.5 (-105) |
Key Matchups and Handicap: North Dakota State vs San Francisco
These two programs are heading in opposite directions early in the season. San Francisco is positioning itself as a potential successor power in the WCC, while North Dakota State is trying to rebuild after a roster overhaul and is coming off a lopsided road loss. The Bison’s defensive struggles are the central issue in this handicap.
San Francisco Making Its Case in the WCC
San Francisco opened with a 76-62 home win over Big South contender Radford on Monday night. With Gonzaga leaving for the Pac-12 and the Randy Bennett era ending at Saint Mary’s, the Dons are beginning to make their case as the next power in the WCC. It was a solid opener against a quality opponent.
USF Newcomers Make an Immediate Impact
Bay Area sources have indicated that head coach Chris Gerlufsen found some real nuggets on the recruiting trail. Argentinian freshman guard Dylan Bordon, who played professionally in Spain the past couple of years, made his presence felt right away with 20 points and seven rebounds in just 30 minutes against Radford. That kind of experience and production from a freshman gives San Francisco a dangerous new weapon.
North Dakota State Routed at Saint Mary’s
Do not try to tell North Dakota State that Saint Mary’s is no longer formidable. The Bison were blown out by 41 points in Moraga on Wednesday, and their California tour may not get easier until Sunday afternoon at CS Bakersfield. The roster was largely stripped after last season’s 27-win campaign and NCAA Tournament bid out of the Summit, and the new group looked totally inept against the Gaels, with no starter scoring in double figures.
North Dakota State Defense Must Tighten Up
David Richman’s defense was a step slow across the court and was torn apart by Saint Mary’s 67% shooting. Questions are mounting in Fargo about all of the newcomers on the roster. If the defense does not tighten up quickly, this trip to the Bay Area is not going to get any better on Friday night.
Dons Frontcourt Anchored by Ismalia Diagne
The Dons also have a dominant interior presence in 7-foot Senegalese Gonzaga transfer Ismalia Diagne, who looked positively beastly in the opener with 16 points and 11 rebounds. Against a North Dakota State defense that struggled to contain Saint Mary’s, Diagne should have another big night inside.
NDSU vs USF Betting Trends
- San Francisco beat Radford 76-62 in its season opener.
- North Dakota State lost by 41 points at Saint Mary’s on Wednesday.
- Saint Mary’s shot 67% from the field against North Dakota State.
- No North Dakota State starter scored in double figures against Saint Mary’s.
- North Dakota State won 27 games and reached the NCAA Tournament last season.
- The spread has moved from San Francisco -7.5 to -9.5.
- The total has held at 146.5 since opening.
NDSU vs USF Key Injuries and Notes
- San Francisco: Freshman guard Dylan Bordon scored 20 points with seven rebounds in 30 minutes in the opener.
- San Francisco: 7-foot Gonzaga transfer Ismalia Diagne posted 16 points and 11 rebounds against Radford.
- North Dakota State: Playing on the road for the second time in three days.
- North Dakota State: Finishes its California trip Sunday afternoon at CS Bakersfield.
- North Dakota State: Roster largely rebuilt after last season’s 27-win team.
North Dakota State vs San Francisco ATS and Total Picks
ATS Pick: San Francisco -9.5 (-108). San Francisco has a talented freshman guard and a dominant big man who both produced immediately, while North Dakota State’s new-look roster was overwhelmed at Saint Mary’s. The Bison’s defense needs to improve dramatically to keep this close, and playing a second road game in three days does not help. The line has moved two points toward the Dons, and there is still value at -9.5.
Total Pick: Over 146.5 (-108). North Dakota State’s defense was torn apart by 67% shooting in its last game, and San Francisco has the inside-outside combination of Bordon and Diagne to exploit that weakness. Even if the Bison struggle offensively, the Dons should do enough scoring to push this game past the number.
North Dakota State vs San Francisco Best Bets
- Best Bet: San Francisco -9.5 (-108)
- Total Pick: Over 146.5 (-108)
- Key Factor: North Dakota State’s porous defense against San Francisco’s impact newcomers
- X-Factor: Ismalia Diagne’s dominance in the paint
Final Score Prediction for North Dakota State vs San Francisco
San Francisco has the talent and the momentum, while North Dakota State is still searching for defensive answers after a lopsided loss in Moraga. Expect Dylan Bordon and Ismalia Diagne to lead the Dons to a comfortable home win that covers the spread and clears the total.
- Final Score Prediction: San Francisco 82, North Dakota State 66
- Spread Pick: San Francisco -9.5 (-108)
- Total Pick: Over 146.5 (-108)
