Best Thunder vs Mavericks Odds, Picks and Predictions | October 28, 2026
A perfect 4-0 record usually means a healthy roster, but Oklahoma City is winning in spite of an injury report that reads like a who’s who of its rotation. That’s the central tension in this Thunder vs Mavericks prediction. The Thunder visit American Airlines Center on October 28, 2026, at 9:30 PM ET without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso, among others.
Dallas is banged up too, but Cooper Flagg has emerged as a legitimate centerpiece, and the market can’t seem to settle on whether this spread belongs at 5.5 or 6.5. Before you finalize your free NBA predictions, here’s a complete breakdown of the odds, line movement, matchups, and best bets.
Thunder vs Mavericks Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Dallas Mavericks +6.5 (-115)
- Total Pick: Under 228.5 (-108)
- Projected Final Score: Thunder 113, Mavericks 109
Odds and Line Movement for Oklahoma City vs Dallas
The spread has flipped back and forth between Oklahoma City -5.5 and -6.5 throughout the day, currently resting at -6.5. The total has done the same between 228.5 and 229.5, with the latest move landing on 228.5. Public spread money has backed Dallas, while the majority of total money is on the under. Keep up with every swing with our live odds.
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | -6.5 (-105) | Over 229.5 (-105) |
| Dallas Mavericks | +6.5 (-115) | Under 229.5 (-115) |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | -6.5 (-105) | Over 228.5 (-112) |
| Dallas Mavericks | +6.5 (-115) | Under 228.5 (-108) |
Line Movement – Spread
| Date | Oklahoma City | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| 10/28 | -6.5 (-105) | +6.5 (-115) |
| 10/28 | -5.5 (-115) | +5.5 (-105) |
| 10/28 | -6.5 (-105) | +6.5 (-115) |
| 10/28 | -5.5 (-115) | +5.5 (-105) |
| 10/28 | -6.5 (-105) | +6.5 (-115) |
| 10/28 | -5.5 (-118) | +5.5 (-102) |
| 10/28 | -6.5 (-105) | +6.5 (-115) |
| 10/28 | -5.5 (-115) | +5.5 (-105) |
| 10/28 | -6.5 (-102) | +6.5 (-118) |
| 10/28 | -5.5 (-118) | +5.5 (-102) |
| 10/28 | -6.5 (-105) | +6.5 (-115) |
Line Movement – Total
| Date | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10/28 | 228.5 (-112) | 228.5 (-108) |
| 10/28 | 229.5 (-105) | 229.5 (-115) |
| 10/28 | 229.5 (-110) | 229.5 (-110) |
| 10/28 | 228.5 (-115) | 228.5 (-105) |
| 10/28 | 229.5 (-110) | 229.5 (-110) |
| 10/28 | 229.5 (-105) | 229.5 (-115) |
| 10/28 | 229.5 (-112) | 229.5 (-108) |
| 10/28 | 229.5 (-108) | 229.5 (-112) |
| 10/28 | 228.5 (-112) | 228.5 (-108) |
| 10/28 | 229.5 (-105) | 229.5 (-115) |
| 10/28 | 228.5 (-112) | 228.5 (-108) |
| 10/28 | 229.5 (-105) | 229.5 (-115) |
Key Matchups and Handicap: Thunder vs Mavericks
Oklahoma City has opened the 2026-27 season with four straight wins, including a 125-114 victory over Phoenix, a 108-101 win against the Clippers, and a 96-84 defensive clinic against Denver. The Thunder are averaging 111.3 points per game while allowing just 100.8, proving their defense can carry them even with a short-handed roster. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the way with 27.3 points per game.
The problem is how many key contributors are missing. Chet Holmgren, who averages 9.3 rebounds, has been ruled out with a knee injury. Jalen Williams is unavailable after suffering a fractured fibula and dislocated ankle that requires surgery. Cason Wallace is sidelined with a shoulder injury that also requires surgery, and Alex Caruso will miss this game with an ankle problem.
Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber remain out, and Ajay Mitchell is questionable with an ankle injury. Those absences take a big bite out of Oklahoma City’s perimeter defense and offensive depth, and Gilgeous-Alexander will need plenty of help.
Dallas sits at 2-2 after a 113-109 win over Miami, and Cooper Flagg has quickly become the focal point of the offense. Flagg leads the Mavericks with 25.0 points and 6.3 assists per game, while P.J. Washington adds 7.5 rebounds per contest. Dallas is averaging 112.5 points on an impressive 50 percent shooting from the field, but the defense has been an issue, allowing 116.0 points per game.
The Mavericks have injury concerns of their own. Kyrie Irving is questionable with a knee issue, Naji Marshall is questionable due to illness, and Dereck Lively II remains sidelined with a foot injury, limiting Dallas’ interior depth. Caleb Martin is dealing with a thumb injury, and Santi Aldama, Tarik Biberovic, and Sergio de Larrea have all been ruled out.
Oklahoma City’s defensive efficiency gives it a clear edge, but covering a sizable road spread with this many players out is a challenge. Without Holmgren protecting the paint, Flagg and Washington should find opportunities inside. At the same time, both rotations are so depleted that consistent offense could be hard to come by on either side.
Betting Trends: OKC vs DAL
- The Thunder are 4-0 straight up to start the season.
- The Mavericks are 2-2 straight up to start the season.
- Oklahoma City is averaging 111.3 points per game and allowing 100.8.
- Dallas is averaging 112.5 points per game and allowing 116.0.
- The Mavericks are shooting 50 percent from the field.
- The Thunder held Denver to 84 points in a 96-84 win.
- Public spread money has backed Dallas, and the majority of total money is on the under.
Key Injuries and Notes: OKC vs DAL
- Oklahoma City: Chet Holmgren (knee) is out.
- Oklahoma City: Jalen Williams (fractured fibula, dislocated ankle) is out and requires surgery.
- Oklahoma City: Cason Wallace (shoulder) is out and requires surgery.
- Oklahoma City: Alex Caruso (ankle) is out.
- Oklahoma City: Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber are out.
- Oklahoma City: Ajay Mitchell (ankle) is questionable.
- Oklahoma City: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 27.3 points per game.
- Dallas: Kyrie Irving (knee) is questionable.
- Dallas: Naji Marshall (illness) is questionable.
- Dallas: Dereck Lively II (foot) is out.
- Dallas: Caleb Martin is dealing with a thumb injury.
- Dallas: Santi Aldama, Tarik Biberovic, and Sergio de Larrea are out.
- Dallas: Cooper Flagg is averaging 25.0 points and 6.3 assists per game.
ATS and Total Picks for Thunder vs Mavericks
ATS Pick: The spread has bounced between 5.5 and 6.5 all day, and grabbing Dallas at the higher number is the play. Oklahoma City is missing four rotation players and possibly a fifth, which strips away much of its perimeter defense and depth. Flagg has been excellent, and with Holmgren out, the Mavericks should have openings around the basket. The Thunder can still win this game, but laying 6.5 on the road with this roster is asking a lot. Take the Mavericks +6.5.
Total Pick: The total has shifted between 228.5 and 229.5 and is currently sitting at the lower number. Oklahoma City is allowing just 100.8 points per game, and its strong defense has held up even with all the absences. With both rotations heavily depleted and Irving questionable for Dallas, consistent scoring could be hard to find. Take the under 228.5.
Oklahoma City vs Dallas Best Bets
- Best Bet: Dallas Mavericks +6.5 (-115)
- Total: Under 228.5 (-108)
Final Score Prediction for Thunder vs Mavericks
Gilgeous-Alexander and Oklahoma City’s defense should be enough to stay unbeaten, but Flagg and a Dallas team that can exploit the Thunder’s thin frontcourt should keep this one within the number.
- Final Score Prediction: Thunder 113, Mavericks 109
- Spread Result: Mavericks cover +6.5
- Total Result: Under 228.5
