Colorado State vs Texas State Picks, Predictions & Odds for October 15, 2026
Colorado State is heading into a road showdown with one of the most explosive offenses in the country, and the Rams still have nobody officially running their defense. First-year head coach Jim Mora demoted defensive coordinator Tyson Summers during the first half of a lopsided loss to Oregon State, then fired him before the team reached the locker room.
Now an angry Texas State team with a quarterback who has thrown 12 touchdown passes in his last three games is waiting. Our Colorado State vs Texas State prediction breaks down why the Bobcats are positioned to pile up points, how the market has moved since opening and where the betting value sits on the spread, moneyline and total. For more free college football predictions, check out the rest of our weekly card.
Colorado State vs Texas State Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Texas State -14 (-115)
- Total Pick: Over 69.5 (-112)
- Projected Final Score: Texas State 48, Colorado State 24
Odds and Line Movement for Colorado State vs Texas State
Texas State has moved from a 13.5-point favorite to a two-touchdown favorite, while the total has climbed as high as 72.5 before returning to 69.5. Stay on top of every adjustment with our live odds page leading up to kickoff.
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado State | +13.5 (-105) | Over 69.5 (-102) |
| Texas State | -13.5 (-115) | Under 69.5 (-118) |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado State | +14 (-105) | Over 69.5 (-112) |
| Texas State | -14 (-115) | Under 69.5 (-108) |
Line Movement – Spread
| Date | Colorado State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| 10/13 | +14 (-105) | -14 (-115) |
| 10/13 | +14 (-102) | -14 (-118) |
| 10/13 | +14 (-105) | -14 (-115) |
| 10/13 | +14.5 (-112) | -14.5 (-108) |
| 10/13 | +14 (-105) | -14 (-115) |
| 10/13 | +14.5 (-115) | -14.5 (-105) |
| 10/12 | +14 (-108) | -14 (-112) |
| 10/12 | +14.5 (-115) | -14.5 (-105) |
| 10/12 | +14 (-105) | -14 (-115) |
| 10/12 | +14.5 (-115) | -14.5 (-105) |
| 10/12 | +14 (-110) | -14 (-110) |
| 10/12 | +14 (-112) | -14 (-108) |
| 10/12 | +14 (-110) | -14 (-110) |
| 10/12 | +14 (-112) | -14 (-108) |
| 10/12 | +13.5 (-105) | -13.5 (-115) |
The spread has toggled between 14 and 14.5 for two days, with the price on Texas State -14 now juiced to -115. The Bobcats are drawing 96 percent of the spread money and 75 percent of the tickets.
Line Movement – Total
| Date | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10/13 | 69.5 (-112) | 69.5 (-108) |
| 10/13 | 70.5 (-110) | 70.5 (-110) |
| 10/13 | 70.5 (-105) | 70.5 (-115) |
| 10/13 | 70.5 (-110) | 70.5 (-110) |
| 10/13 | 71.5 (-105) | 71.5 (-115) |
| 10/13 | 71.5 (-110) | 71.5 (-110) |
| 10/13 | 71.5 (-105) | 71.5 (-115) |
| 10/13 | 71.5 (-110) | 71.5 (-110) |
| 10/13 | 71.5 (-115) | 71.5 (-105) |
| 10/13 | 72.5 (-105) | 72.5 (-115) |
| 10/13 | 71.5 (-115) | 71.5 (-105) |
| 10/12 | 71.5 (-108) | 71.5 (-112) |
| 10/12 | 70.5 (-110) | 70.5 (-110) |
| 10/12 | 70.5 (-105) | 70.5 (-115) |
| 10/12 | 69.5 (-110) | 69.5 (-110) |
| 10/12 | 69.5 (-105) | 69.5 (-115) |
| 10/12 | 69.5 (-102) | 69.5 (-118) |
The total rose three full points to a peak of 72.5 before sliding back to where it started at 69.5. The latest betting split shows 95 percent of the money on the under while 56 percent of the tickets back the over, so the over now carries the slightly heavier price at -112.
Colorado State vs Texas State Key Matchups and Handicap
Colorado State’s Defensive Coordinator Crisis
The situation in Fort Collins is about as chaotic as it gets for a first-year staff. Jim Mora demoted defensive coordinator Tyson Summers during the first half of the recent embarrassment against Oregon State and dismissed him entirely before the team returned to the locker room after that loss. Filling the job has proven difficult, and whoever is calling the defense now inherits a unit in deep trouble.
The numbers explain the urgency. Colorado State allowed an average of more than 50 points across its previous three games, all losses. If any team looked like it needed last weekend’s bye, it was the Rams. The question is whether one week off is enough to fix a defense that has been overwhelmed for most of the past month.
Texas State’s Explosive Passing Game
Texas State arrives capable and likely very angry after a self-inflicted collapse in its recent loss at San Diego State. That is bad news for Colorado State, because the Bobcats have plenty of offense to take their frustration out on a vulnerable opponent. Texas State has scored more than 44 points per game across its three home games this season in San Marcos.
Veteran dual-threat quarterback Brad Jackson is the engine. Jackson has already thrown 13 touchdown passes before the season has reached its midway point, and 12 of those have come in the last three games. Facing a defense without a permanent coordinator, he should find plenty of open targets.
Bobcats’ Rushing Attack Adds Balance
GJ Kinne’s offense is not one-dimensional. Explosive running back Davian Jackson scored four rushing touchdowns a few weeks ago against North Texas, and in that same game backfield mate Torrance Burgess Jr. ran for 214 yards against one of the top contenders in the American. That balance makes Texas State extremely difficult to slow down, especially for a Colorado State defense that has struggled to stop anyone.
This is not the spot to back Mora’s defense-shy group. The better time to consider the Rams comes later in the schedule, when they face some of the lesser Pac-12 offenses. Against Texas State, the edges all point toward the Bobcats.
CSU vs TXST Betting Trends
- Colorado State lost each of its previous three games while allowing an average of more than 50 points.
- Texas State has averaged more than 44 points per game in three home games this season.
- Brad Jackson has thrown 12 touchdown passes over Texas State’s last three games.
- Texas State is drawing 96 percent of the spread money and 75 percent of the spread tickets.
- The spread has moved from Texas State -13.5 to -14, crossing the key number of two touchdowns.
- The total peaked at 72.5 before returning to 69.5, with 95 percent of the money on the under and 56 percent of the tickets on the over.
CSU vs TXST Key Injuries and Notes
- Colorado State is without a permanent defensive coordinator after Tyson Summers was demoted and then dismissed during the Oregon State loss.
- The Rams are coming off a bye week.
- Jim Mora is in his first season as Colorado State head coach.
- Texas State is coming off a loss at San Diego State.
- Davian Jackson scored four rushing touchdowns and Torrance Burgess Jr. ran for 214 yards against North Texas.
- Check final injury reports before kickoff for any late updates on either roster.
Colorado State vs Texas State ATS and Total Picks
Texas State -14 Spread Pick
Laying two touchdowns is a big ask, but this matchup justifies it. Texas State has a veteran quarterback in peak form, a pair of productive running backs and a motivated locker room after its loss at San Diego State. Colorado State has been giving up more than 50 points per game in its recent losses and is now trying to rebuild its defense on the fly. The market agrees, with nearly all of the money on the Bobcats pushing the number to 14.
- Pick: Texas State -14 (-115)
CSU vs TXST Over Pick
The case for the over starts with Texas State’s offense, which has topped 44 points per game at home, and ends with a Colorado State defense that has allowed more than 50 per game across its last three outings. The Bobcats can reach the 40s on their own in this matchup, which leaves Colorado State needing only a modest contribution to push the total over. The under has drawn the bigger money, so this is a bet on the matchup rather than the market, and 69.5 is the lowest number the total has shown.
- Pick: Over 69.5 (-112)
Colorado State vs Texas State Best Bets
- Best Bet: Texas State -14 (-115)
- Total: Over 69.5 (-112)
The spread is the strongest play on the board. Texas State brings one of the most productive offenses around into a matchup with a defense that has no permanent coordinator and has been allowing more than half a hundred points per game. The Bobcats on the moneyline is the safest way to back them, while the over leans on Texas State doing most of the scoring.
Final Score Prediction for Colorado State vs Texas State
Texas State uses its balanced attack to stay ahead of a reshuffled Colorado State defense from the opening drive. Brad Jackson adds to his touchdown total, the Bobcats’ run game wears down the Rams in the second half and the extra week of preparation does not slow down an offense this explosive.
- Projected Final Score: Texas State 48, Colorado State 24
- Spread: Texas State -14 (-115) covers
- Total: Over 69.5 (-112) cashes with 72 combined points
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