Golden Knights vs Blackhawks Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

Opening night in the desert rarely comes with this much tension baked into the numbers. The Chicago Blackhawks walk into Las Vegas on September 29 to kick off the 2026-27 NHL regular season without their franchise centerpiece, and the betting market has responded by pricing the Golden Knights as a heavy home favorite.

Our Blackhawks vs Golden Knights prediction digs into what Chicago’s lineup looks like without Connor Bedard, why Vegas’ forward depth is such a problem for a short-handed opponent, and how the sharp and public money has shaped this line since it opened in July.

If you are building a card for the first night of the season, this breakdown, along with the rest of our NHL picks, will help you find the best angle before the puck drops at 10:30 PM ET.

Blackhawks vs Golden Knights Quick Picks and Prediction

Puck Line Pick: Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 (+105)
Total Pick: Over 5.5 (-135)
Projected Final Score: Golden Knights 4, Blackhawks 2

Odds and Line Movement

Opening Odds

Team	Moneyline	Total
Chicago Blackhawks	+205	Over 5.5 (-125)
Vegas Golden Knights	-250	Under 5.5 (+105)

Current Odds

Team	Puck Line	Moneyline	Total
Chicago Blackhawks	+1.5 (-125)	+210	Over 5.5 (-135)
Vegas Golden Knights	-1.5 (+105)	-258	Under 5.5 (+114)

Line Movement – Puck Line

The puck line currently sits at Vegas -1.5 (+105) and Chicago +1.5 (-125). The price movement on this game has played out on the moneyline, which is tracked below.

Date	Chicago	Vegas	Public ($, #)
09/28	+210	-258	CHI 75%, VEG 78%
09/24	+215	-265	CHI 51%, VEG 86%
07/23	+205	-250

Line Movement – Total

Date	Over	Under	Public ($, #)
09/27	5.5 (-135)	5.5 (+114)	OV 65%, OV 57%
09/26	5.5 (-130)	5.5 (+110)	OV 54%, UN 57%
09/23	5.5 (-125)	5.5 (+105)	UN 54%, UN 60%
09/17	5.5 (-120)	5.5 (+100)	UN 77%, OV 50%
07/23	5.5 (-125)	5.5 (+105)

Golden Knights vs Blackhawks Key Matchups and Handicap

The single biggest factor in this handicap is who is not on the ice. Chicago begins the season without Connor Bedard, who is recovering from shoulder surgery and carries an estimated return date of November 7.

That is not a minor absence. Bedard led the Blackhawks last season with 75 points in 69 games, posting 30 goals and 45 assists, and he was the player the entire offense ran through. Taking him out of the lineup for a road opener against one of the deepest teams in the league changes the entire complexion of this matchup.

The market has priced that reality in from the start. Vegas opened at -250 in July, stretched as far as -265 on September 24, and now sits at -258.

Chicago has bounced between +205 and +215 before settling at +210. The public split is notable: on the most recent move, 78% of tickets backed Vegas while 75% of the money landed on Chicago.

That kind of divergence suggests some larger wagers took a shot on the underdog price, which explains why the Vegas number came back slightly from its peak. Even so, the Golden Knights remain priced well north of -250, and the underlying matchup still points heavily in their direction.

Blackhawks Offense Without Bedard

With Bedard sidelined, the scoring burden shifts to a group that produced solid but not elite numbers a year ago. Tyler Bertuzzi is the most proven finisher left on the roster after scoring 32 goals and recording 58 points last season.

He becomes the primary threat by default, and Vegas will be able to focus its defensive attention on him in a way that was not possible when Bedard was drawing the top matchups.

Frank Nazar is the next piece to watch after contributing 15 goals and 41 points, while Teuvo Teravainen chipped in 35 points. Ryan Donato and Ryan Greene will also be asked to take on bigger offensive roles while Bedard recovers.

That is a lot of responsibility spread across players who were complementary pieces last season, and it is difficult to expect that group to consistently generate high-quality chances on the road against a structured opponent.

On the back end, Alex Vlasic and Artyom Levshunov anchor Chicago’s blue line. They will need to handle heavy minutes against a Vegas forward group that can roll multiple scoring lines, and the pressure on Chicago’s defense and goaltending could be significant if the Golden Knights control possession for long stretches.

Golden Knights Forward Depth

The contrast on the other side is stark. Jack Eichel led the Golden Knights with 90 points last season, including 63 assists, and he remains the engine of one of the most complete attacks in the league. Mitch Marner added 80 points, and Mark Stone contributed 73. That is three forwards who each outproduced every healthy player on Chicago’s roster a year ago.

The depth does not stop there. Ivan Barbashev posted 61 points, and Tomas Hertl added 58, giving Vegas five forwards who can drive offense on any given shift. For a Chicago team trying to protect its own zone without its best player, there is no easy line to hide from. Every Vegas unit brings real scoring punch, which is exactly why the -1.5 puck line at plus money stands out.

Vegas Blue Line and Home Ice

Vegas also holds a clear edge on defense. Shea Theodore and Noah Hanifin remain key pieces on the blue line, and the offseason addition of Rasmus Andersson strengthens an already deep defensive group. That trio should help Vegas limit Chicago’s already reduced offensive output while also supporting the attack from the back end.

Add in home ice for the season opener, and the Golden Knights have every structural advantage in this game: top-end scoring, superior depth, a stronger defensive unit, and a Chicago opponent forced to manufacture offense without its leading scorer. At -1.5 (+105), bettors are getting paid a plus price to back Vegas winning by two or more goals, which is a reasonable outcome given the gap between these rosters.

The total is where the handicap gets more interesting. A number of 5.5 is low on the surface, and it would be tempting to lean Under given Chicago’s diminished offense.

However, the Blackhawks’ weakened lineup could lead to extended Vegas possession, sustained pressure, and more scoring chances allowed. Vegas has the firepower to carry a large share of the scoring load on its own, and a 4-2 type of result pushes this game Over the number.

CHI vs VGK Betting Trends

Vegas opened as a -250 moneyline favorite and has held between -250 and -265 throughout the betting cycle.
Chicago has moved from +205 at open to as high as +215 before settling at +210.
On September 24, 86% of moneyline tickets were on Vegas, while the money split was nearly even with 51% on Chicago.
On September 28, 78% of tickets backed Vegas, but 75% of the money came in on Chicago.
The total has stayed at 5.5 since opening, but the Over price has climbed from -120 on September 17 to -135 on September 27.
Money on the total flipped from 77% on the Under on September 17 to 65% on the Over on September 27.
Ticket counts on the total have also shifted toward the Over, with 57% of bets on the Over in the latest update.

CHI vs VGK Key Injuries and Notes

Connor Bedard (CHI): Out following shoulder surgery, with an estimated return date of November 7.
Raphael Lavoie (VGK): Day-to-day, with an estimated return date of September 29.
Lukas Cormier (VGK): Out, with an estimated return date of September 29.
Note: Bedard led Chicago with 75 points last season, making his absence far more damaging than either Vegas injury.
Note: Rasmus Andersson makes his Vegas debut as an offseason addition to the Golden Knights’ defense.
Note: This is the 2026-27 regular season opener for both teams, with puck drop set for 10:30 PM ET in Las Vegas.

Blackhawks vs Golden Knights ATS and Total Picks

The Golden Knights are the play on the puck line. Vegas brings five forwards who topped 55 points last season, a strengthened defense led by Theodore, Hanifin, and Andersson, and home ice against a Chicago team missing its top scorer. At -1.5 (+105), the price rewards bettors for backing the more complete team to win by multiple goals, and the rosters support that outcome.

On the total, the market movement lines up with the handicap. The Over has been steadily bet from -120 to -135, and the money has flipped decisively toward the Over. Vegas has the scoring depth to put up four or more goals on its own, and Chicago’s weakened lineup could leave its defense and goaltending under sustained pressure. Even a modest contribution from Bertuzzi and the Blackhawks’ secondary scorers would push this game past 5.5.

Puck Line Pick: Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 (+105)
Total Pick: Over 5.5 (-135)

Final Score Prediction

Vegas should control the pace of this opener behind Eichel, Marner, and Stone, while Chicago leans on Bertuzzi and Nazar to find enough offense to keep things respectable. Without Bedard, the Blackhawks simply do not have the firepower to match the Golden Knights over 60 minutes, and Vegas opens its season with a comfortable multi-goal win.

Projected Final Score: Golden Knights 4, Blackhawks 2
Puck Line: Vegas -1.5 (+105)
Total: Over 5.5 (-135)

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