UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos Picks, Predictions and Odds September 26, 2026

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang for September 26, 2026 with the main event headlined by Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos in a bantamweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from the Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV.

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Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, September 26	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos
Rounds:	N/A
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Arena:	Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV
TV:	Paramount+

UFC Fight Night Undercard Predictions

Rodolfo Vieira (-130) vs Robert Bryczek (+114) 

Vieira is a grappler who needs this fight on the ground to win. His striking is terrible, and his cardio has become a major problem at this point in his career. After the first round, he struggles to get anything going, doesn’t have the energy for aggressive takedowns, and becomes an easy target on the feet.

Bryczek doesn’t have great takedown defense, so surviving the early portion will be important, but he’s the better striker and should have the cardio advantage. I’ll take  Bryczek at plus money. 

Rinya Nakamura (-330) vs Brady Hiestand (+260) 

Nakamura lost two fights ago when he decided to strike instead of relying on his wrestling, which is clearly his biggest strength. That strategy cost him, but he bounced back in his next fight by landing a great body kick and punch for an early knockout.

Hiestand hasn’t fought in  more than two years, and I’m not sure what to expect from him. His wins have come against bad  competition, his striking is just okay, and I don’t see a high ceiling with his ground game. Nakamura has elite wrestling to fall back on whenever he needs it. Nakamura is the pick. 

Mehemmedeli Osmanli (-290) vs Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu (+235) 

I liked Osmanli from the beginning on The Ultimate Fighter, and I’m going to keep riding with him. He’s excellent on the ground and completely fearless. He’s a bit of a lunatic outside the cage, but that same mentality is part of what gives him such a high ceiling when he fights. Osmanli is the pick. 

Josiah Harrell (-125) vs Elves Brener (+112) 

I’m not a fan of Harrell. He has one win against someone I would consider a good opponent, was badly knocked out in his UFC debut, and has spent time fighting in the Ohio Combat League. He just looks sloppy by UFC standards, and I don’t think his striking is good enough to consistently force Brener backward.

Brener has lost three straight, but those losses came against really good competition, and this is a major step down in class. His volume should be better, his cardio  should be better, and he should be able to capitalize on Harrell’s mistakes. Brener is the pick at +112. 

Rodolfo Bellato (-175) vs Christian Edwards (+145) 

Edwards was less than impressive in his UFC debut. He got hit quite a bit and couldn’t generate much offense with either his striking or wrestling. I’m still not sure exactly what he does particularly well.

Bellato has legitimate power early, but he also tires quickly, which makes it difficult to lay -175. If Bellato doesn’t get the early finish, Edwards could take over in the second  and third rounds. I’m not a fan of either guy, but at these odds, Edwards at +145 is the only way I’d play it. 

Montel Jackson (-205) vs Ricky Simon (+170) 

Simon has really slowed down over the last few years, losing five of his last eight UFC fights and getting a draw in a fight he probably should have lost. Jackson will have a significant reach  advantage and can score with his jab, but he can also get stuck in the mud and stop throwing. 

Barcelos was able to take Jackson down several times, so Simon has a potential path with his wrestling if he chooses to use it, although he hasn’t relied on it much lately.

I don’t trust either guy, but Simon could avoid the long-range striking, work inside, mix in takedowns, and make  this an ugly fight. Simon is the underdog pick at +170. 

John Castaneda (-300) vs Alatengheili (+240) 

These odds are out of whack in my opinion. Both guys fight similarly—they’re primarily strikers, neither has huge knockout power, neither has a dynamic ground game, and neither  consistently creates huge moments that jump out to the judges.

Castaneda is coming off a draw  where he lost a point for low blows, but even before that he was struggling against a fighter who  was only 5-foot-3 despite having a three-inch height advantage.

I think Alateng can keep these rounds close enough to make the judges think hard about who won them. At these prices,  Alatengheili at +240 is the only way I’d play it. 

Ailin Perez (-127) vs Norma Dumont (+110) 

Perez fights essentially the same way every time. She gets early takedowns, controls position, banks rounds, and then starts getting tired in the third. By that point, she’s usually already done  enough to earn the decision.

Now she’s stepping up in competition, and that formula is going to  become tougher to execute. Dumont is strong and is the better striker, although she can be low volume on the feet.

If she can stuff Perez’s takedowns—or even make Perez work extremely  hard to get them early—she can drain her gas tank and potentially take over in rounds two and three. I like the plus-money side with Dumont at +110. 

Mickey Gall (-150) vs Sedriques Dumas (+125) 

I don’t think this fight goes the distance. Gall has major durability concerns, and if Dumas lands clean, he can knock him out. On the other hand, if Gall gets the fight to the ground, he has a clear path to submitting Dumas.

Dumas isn’t trustworthy, and I have major questions about how  seriously he takes his career. It’s scary laying money with Gall, but I think he shoots for the takedown, gets the fight to the ground, and finds the submission. Gall by submission is the pick. 

Yazmin Jauregui (-900) vs Vanessa Demopoulos (+600) 

These odds are crazy. Demopoulos has lost three straight, doesn’t offer much with her striking and her ground game isn’t particularly strong either. Cardio has traditionally been one of her  better attributes, but even that has started to decline.

Her striking defense is getting worse, and she appears to be trending in the wrong direction. Jauregui has lost two of her last three, with  both losses coming by first-round finish, so she’s absolutely capable of making mistakes early. If she settles into the fight, though, she should take over. Jauregui is the pick, but there’s no way  I’m laying -900.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Raul Rosas Jr. (-175) vs Raoni Barcelos (+158)

Rosas is primarily a grappler. He’s young and very strong, although I still have some questions about how seriously he and his camp approach everything.

Barcelos is 39 years old, but he still  has gas left in the tank and has won five straight. He’s probably the better striker, and he can  hold his own in the wrestling department.

The biggest question is whether he’s strong enough to  fight off Rosas’ takedowns. If he can, he’s very live to pull the upset. I’ll take the veteran with  more weapons and more paths to victory. Barcelos is the underdog pick at +158.

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