2026 NFL MVP Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Bets and Longshots
The 2026 NFL MVP race is taking shape with less than two weeks remaining until kickoff of Week 1 of the NFL regular season. With the new campaign approaching, there is still time to evaluate the updated NFL futures markets and identify potential value in the NFL Regular Season MVP odds.
Joe Burrow and Josh Allen enter as the +570 co-favorites at DraftKings, followed by Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson at +735. Below, Picks and Parlays NFL handicapper Steve Seagrave breaks down the latest 2026 NFL MVP odds, recent MVP winners and important betting trends before revealing our NFL MVP predictions, best bet and longshot pick for the upcoming season.
2026 NFL MVP Odds
Here are the latest NFL Regular Season MVP odds at DraftKings:
| Player | Team | MVP Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati | +570 |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo | +570 |
| Caleb Williams | Chicago | +735 |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | +735 |
| Lamar Jackson | Baltimore | +735 |
| CJ Stroud | Houston | +900 |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas | +900 |
| Drake Maye | New England | +900 |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City | +1000 |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay | +1150 |
NFL Regular Season MVP Winners
Looking at recent NFL MVP winners can provide additional context when evaluating the 2026 futures market. Quarterbacks have dominated the award, and that trend is clear when looking at each winner since 2018.
| Season | NFL MVP | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Matthew Stafford | LA Rams |
| 2024 | Josh Allen | Buffalo |
| 2023 | Lamar Jackson | Baltimore |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | Baltimore |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City |
NFL MVP Betting Trends for 2026
The NFL MVP betting trends strongly favor quarterbacks. The position has won the award in each of the last 13 seasons and 18 of the last 19. Adrian Peterson was the last non-quarterback to win MVP, doing so in 2012.
Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes will each be looking to become the seventh player to win three MVP awards. Only two players have won the award more than three times: Peyton Manning with five and Aaron Rodgers with four. Over the last eight seasons, Jackson, Mahomes and Rodgers have each won two MVP awards.
There is also some crossover between winning MVP and reaching the ultimate team goal. Eleven players have won the Super Bowl and NFL MVP in the same season, and all but four of those players also won Super Bowl MVP.
2026 NFL MVP Predictions and Picks
NFL MVP Best Bet: Joe Burrow +570
Joe Burrow +570 at DraftKings is our best bet to win the 2026 NFL Regular Season MVP.
Burrow’s 2025 season was derailed by injury, as a Grade 3 turf toe cost him multiple months of action. Despite the missed time, he still managed to record 1,809 passing yards and 17 touchdowns against only five interceptions.
Burrow would have won this award in 2024 if it wasn’t for the Cincinnati Bengals missing the postseason. He produced elite numbers that season, leading the league in passing yards (4,918), touchdowns (43) and completions (460). Burrow also recorded the third-best passer rating (108.5) and fourth-best completion percentage (70.6%).
Cincinnati still has elite weapons around its quarterback, with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins arguably forming the best wide receiver duo in the NFL. The issues for the Bengals have consistently centered around their defense and protecting the quarterback.
For the first time in Burrow’s career, however, all five starting offensive linemen return from the previous season. Cincinnati has also added elite defensive talent in Dexter Lawrence II and Jonathan Allen.
Regardless, the success of this team remains on Burrow’s shoulders, and he has thrived in that situation in the past. If Burrow can stay healthy and push Cincinnati to double-digit victories, the ingredients are there for an MVP-caliber season.
2026 NFL MVP Best Bet: Joe Burrow +570 (DraftKings)
NFL MVP Longshot Pick: Kyler Murray +1150
Kyler Murray +1150 at DraftKings is our longshot pick in the 2026 NFL MVP odds market.
Murray joined the Minnesota Vikings in March after dealing with a couple of injury-riddled seasons in Arizona, and we have seen him perform at an MVP level for long stretches in the past. Murray already has three 500-yard rushing seasons under his belt, giving him another way to produce the type of numbers necessary to enter the MVP conversation.
Minnesota also provides Murray with plenty of weapons, including Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson.
We have already seen an unexpected top-five MVP finish from a quarterback playing under head coach Kevin O’Connell. Sam Darnold threw for 4,153 yards with a 35-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 106.4 quarterback rating in 2024.
O’Connell is a quarterback guru, and his aggressive play-calling style could fit Murray perfectly. This represents Murray’s best supporting cast, and the change of scenery could do wonders for the veteran quarterback.
If Murray can avoid injuries and limit interceptions, Minnesota could provide an ideal situation for him to re-enter the MVP conversation at better than a 10-1 price.
2026 NFL MVP Longshot Bet: Kyler Murray +1150 (DraftKings)
2026 NFL MVP Best Bets
The quarterback dominance of the NFL MVP award makes the position the clear starting point when evaluating the 2026 NFL MVP odds. Joe Burrow enters the season as a +570 co-favorite after producing MVP-caliber numbers when healthy, while Kyler Murray offers a bigger potential payout at +1150 following his move to Minnesota.
Best Bet: Joe Burrow +570 at DraftKings
Longshot Bet: Kyler Murray +1150 at DraftKings
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