UFC 330: Makhachev vs Garry Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds August 12

UFC 330 Picks, Predictions and Odds

UFC 330 picks and predictions for August 12 by UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang are available below with the main event headlined by Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry in a welterweight title fight! The main card starts up at 9:00pm ET from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, PA.

Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry: UFC 330 Main Event

Saturday, August 15	UFC 330 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over -160 / Under +126)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT
Arena:	Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, PA
TV:	Paramount+

UFC 330 Predictions: Undercard

Mackenzie Dern (-213) vs Gillian Robertson (+203)

This should be an outstanding grappling battle, but Mackenzie Dern deserves to be the favorite. Gillian Robertson is one of the better submission specialists in the division, but the challenge is actually getting Dern to the mat and keeping her there.

Dern’s defensive grappling is world class, and her striking has steadily improved over the past few years, making her a much more complete fighter.

Robertson has also taken major strides, but Dern’s recent win over Virna Jandiroba showed she can neutralize elite wrestling and grappling. If she could solve Jandiroba’s takedown game, she should be able to handle Robertson as well. Dern is the pick.

Charles Johnson (+350) vs. Jose Ochoa (-459)

Jose Ochoa looks like one of the safer favorites on the card. His striking is fast, technical, and efficient, with his only UFC losses coming against quality opponents in Asu Almabayev and Lone’er Kavanagh.

The only real concern in his game is takedown defense, but Charles Johnson isn’t the type of fighter who consistently attacks with wrestling. Johnson has been extremely active over the past few years, fighting nine times in roughly two and a half years, and the wear and tear appears to be catching up with him.

His speed, durability, and defensive wrestling have all declined recently. Ochoa should control the striking exchanges from start to finish and earn a convincing victory.

Mansur Abdul-Malik (-525) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+488)

Mansur Abdul-Malik finds himself in an ideal bounce-back spot after suffering the first loss of his professional career. Fighters coming off their first defeat often respond well, especially when they’re given a step down in competition.

Dustin Stoltzfus can be competitive early, but he consistently fades after the opening round. Although he has a wrestling background, he hasn’t relied on it nearly as much in recent fights, leaving him with striking that simply isn’t dangerous enough at this level.

Abdul-Malik has speed, power, and the ability to wrestle if necessary. Once Stoltzfus begins to slow, Abdul-Malik should take complete control and cruise to victory.

Edson Barboza (+426) vs. Esteban Ribovics (-456)

Father Time appears to have finally caught up with Edson Barboza. At 40 years old, he’s looked noticeably slower over his last two fights and has struggled to maintain his pace deep into contests.

Esteban Ribovics thrives in high-volume striking battles and should be able to push a pace that Barboza simply can’t sustain anymore.

Ribovics isn’t necessarily known as a huge knockout artist, but he throws enough volume to completely wear opponents down. Whether it comes by decision or a late stoppage after Barboza wilts under the pressure, Ribovics is the clear side.

Chidi Njokuani (+217) vs. Joel Alvarez (-277)

Joel Alvarez is one of the stronger plays on this card. Chidi Njokuani enters on a two-fight losing streak and looked completely out of rhythm in his last outing against Leal.

His striking defense broke down, and he struggled to generate any offense once he was put under pressure. Alvarez lost his last fight as well, but it came against an elite grappler who exposed his ground game.

That’s not a path Chidi is likely to replicate. Alvarez should be the aggressor from the opening bell, land the heavier shots, and eventually overwhelm Njokuani for a finish.

Jalin Turner (-163) vs. Kauê Fernandes (+156)

Jalin Turner remains one of the more frustrating fighters in the division. After losing four of five fights, briefly retiring, and then returning with a win over Barboza, it’s difficult to know exactly what version of Turner will show up.

At his best, his length, kicks, and striking are outstanding, but mental lapses and cardio issues have repeatedly cost him. Kauê Fernandes possesses arguably the best leg kicks in the UFC, and Turner’s long, skinny legs present an obvious target.

If Fernandes can consistently attack that lead leg early, he could take away Turner’s movement and completely change the fight. At plus money, Fernandes is the value side.

Donte Johnson (-219) vs. Eric McConico (+189)

Donte Johnson appears to have clear advantages across the board in this matchup. Eric McConico has split his four UFC appearances, with both wins coming largely because his opponents faded late. When facing better competition, he’s been knocked out and hasn’t shown enough offensive weapons to threaten quality opponents.

Johnson may be undersized for the division, but he’s powerful, well-rounded, and has demonstrated solid striking and wrestling. His cardio also held up well in his last decision victory. Johnson should control where this fight takes place and earn another win.

Vicente Luque (+122) vs. Tresean Gore (-127)

It was surprising to see Vicente Luque win his last fight after looking close to retirement in several previous performances. His speed has noticeably declined, and much of his offense now revolves around finding opportunistic submissions.

Tresean Gore showed tremendous heart in his last fight, surviving adversity before rallying for a third-round finish. He appears to have the better cardio, a solid grappling game, and enough striking to keep Luque uncomfortable.

As the fight progresses, Gore’s youth and pace should become the difference, allowing him to wear Luque down and finish him late.

Rafael Tobias (+265) vs. Lucas Fernando (-307)

Lucas Fernando is the rightful favorite, but the price feels inflated. His recent resume raises some questions after losses to relatively inexperienced competition on Contender Series and in LFA, making it difficult to know exactly how high his ceiling is.

Rafael Tobias hasn’t impressed either, compiling wins over questionable competition before struggling badly in his UFC debut against Diyar Nurgozhay.

His offense lacks variety, and he has shown little ability to adjust during fights. Tobias could have some success with wrestling if he chooses that approach, but Fernando remains the better overall fighter. He’s the pick, though this is a fight to pass from a betting perspective.

Neil Magny (+113) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (-117)

Neil Magny continues to win fights the same way he always has. He survives difficult first rounds, lets younger opponents wear themselves out, and takes over late with his experience and cardio.

Ramiz Brahimaj’s UFC wins have all come by finish, while his recent losses have been decisions where he simply ran out of gas as the fight progressed.

If Magny can weather the early storm, history suggests he’ll begin taking over during the second half of the fight. It’s not a matchup worth betting with confidence, but Magny’s veteran savvy gives him the slight edge to grind out another close decision.

Jeremiah Wells (+567) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-614)

Myktybek Orolbai deserves to be a massive favorite in this matchup. He’s younger, more explosive, and far more dangerous in every phase of the fight than Jeremiah Wells at this stage of their careers.

Wells still carries knockout power, but injuries, inactivity, and age have significantly slowed him down, making it difficult to trust him against one of the division’s rising contenders.

Orolbai should dictate where the fight takes place, overwhelm Wells with his pace and physicality, and likely secure a finish before the final bell.

UFC 330 Main Event: Islam Makhachev (-300) vs. Ian Machado Garry (+285)

Islam Makhachev may be entering the later stages of his dominant championship run, but he’s still the best fighter in the world until someone proves otherwise.

At 34 years old with nearly 30 professional fights, he doesn’t appear to have quite the same explosion or violent finishing instincts that made him so terrifying a few years ago, but his wrestling remains elite.

Once Makhachev gets opponents to the mat, they rarely find a way back to their feet. Ian Machado Garry has excellent fight IQ, outstanding cardio, and has undoubtedly spent countless hours preparing his takedown defense for this matchup.

He’ll circle on the outside, use his movement, and try to make Islam chase him for five rounds. Eventually, though, Makhachev’s pressure and wrestling should break through. The time to bet against Islam is coming, but it isn’t this fight. Makhachev gets another title defense.

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