UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds July 11

UFC 329 Picks, Predictions and Odds

UFC 329 picks and predictions for July 11 by UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang are available below with the main event headlined by Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway in a welterweight fight! The main card starts up at 9:00pm ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.

Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway: UFC 329 Main Event

Saturday, July 11	UFC 329 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Conor McGregor +186 vs Max Holloway -194
Rounds:	2.5 Rounds (Over -102 / Under -126)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT
Arena:	T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	Paramount+

UFC 329 Predictions: Undercard

Benoit Saint-Denis (-133) vs Paddy Pimblett (+127)

Saint-Denis has won four straight fights, but those victories came against opponents who all had noticeable weaknesses, whether it was age, poor grappling, or limited skill sets. Paddy doesn’t have those same holes.

BSD chose to stand and trade with Justin Gaethje in his last fight, and it didn’t end well, but surviving three rounds against the current champion is still impressive. I think the value is on the underdog here.

Paddy has become a much more complete striker than people give him credit for, and I think he can neutralize a lot of Saint-Denis’ wrestling. In a competitive fight, I’ll trust Paddy’s cardio to carry him through the third round and steal a decision with late grappling.

Cory Sandhagen (-138) vs Mario Bautista (+133)

The value is all on Bautista at plus money.

Sandhagen is just 4-4 over his last eight fights, and the losses to Merab Dvalishvili, Umar Nurmagomedov, and Petr Yan all exposed problems against high-pressure fighters with strong wrestling. Even many of his wins haven’t come against elite competition. Deiveson Figueiredo is well past his prime, Rob Font offers very little wrestling threat, and the Marlon Vera win was only a split decision against a low-volume striker.

Bautista is incredibly fast and has quietly developed one of the better grappling games in the division. Sandhagen probably has the cleaner striking at range, but Bautista’s speed and wrestling can dictate where the fight takes place. At plus money, Bautista is my pick.

Brandon Royval (+194) vs Lone’er Kavanagh (-203)

Kavanagh is the pick here. On paper, Royval beating Brandon Moreno after getting knocked out by Kape looks strange, but that knockout loss wasn’t nearly as one-sided as it appears. He was actually winning much of the striking before getting caught.

Still, Kavanagh’s movement and boxing are elite. Royval has now lost two straight to quality strikers, and that’s concerning in this matchup. Royval has length and a capable ground game, but I don’t see him getting Kavanagh uncomfortable enough to consistently wrestle.

Kavanagh’s speed, jab, and footwork should carry him to another win.

King Green (+134) vs Terrance McKinney (-150)

McKinney is the definition of kill or be killed. He explodes out of the gate, constantly attacking with strikes and takedowns, but once the first few minutes pass, his cardio completely falls apart.

Green’s relaxed, hands-down style won’t work early in this fight. He’ll need to respect McKinney’s explosiveness until the pace slows.

Green is a veteran who’s coming off two straight finishes and looks rejuvenated. If he survives the early storm, I think he takes over and gets the stoppage himself. Rather than betting the moneyline, I’d rather play Green by finish.

Robert Whittaker (-186) vs Nikita Krylov (+178)

Whittaker all day. Losing to Reinier de Ridder in what was primarily a striking battle wasn’t a great look, but I still believe Whittaker is the superior striker in this matchup.

Krylov is coming off a win where his opponent looked terrible, and honestly Krylov didn’t look particularly impressive either. He was low volume, looked slow, and simply happened to face someone even worse.

He was also knocked out early in each of his previous two fights, which raises questions about his durability. Whittaker should simply be the faster, more active fighter over three rounds.

Gable Steveson (-1011) vs Elisha Ellison (+669)

Steveson makes his UFC debut carrying enormous expectations. He’s one of the most decorated wrestlers to ever transition into MMA, and the UFC clearly views him as a future star.

Ellison feels like a sacrificial lamb in this spot. Steveson’s wrestling should overwhelm him immediately. Not much breakdown is needed here. Steveson by first-round finish.

Cody Garbrandt (+317) vs Adrian Yanez (-335)

I think Yanez wins, but this line is getting out of hand.

Garbrandt isn’t the fighter he once was, but he still moves well, throws fast combinations, and can be competitive for stretches.

Yanez should be the better boxer throughout. He’s coming off a draw with Ricky Simon that I thought he deserved to win, and his accuracy and damage should separate him over three rounds. Yanez is the correct side, but laying this kind of price is difficult.

Kai Kamaka III (+285) vs Luke Riley (-300)

Luke Riley is one of my favorite picks on the card. Kamaka returned to the UFC with a split decision win over an opponent who lacked cardio and looked below UFC level.

Riley is still developing and occasionally leaves his chin exposed, but he’s durable enough to absorb shots and continue pushing forward. I don’t think Kamaka has the speed or power to consistently back Riley up.

Kamaka may have some success in the clinch, but I don’t see him winning enough rounds. Riley by decision is the most likely outcome as he takes over in rounds two and three.

Tracy Cortez (+108) vs Cong Wang (-117)

Cortez is heavily dependent on her wrestling, but Wang already showed she can handle a physical grappler by beating Moura in her last fight.

On the feet, Wang is simply the cleaner striker.

This is partly a stylistic opinion, but I’m fading Cortez at this stage. Between the inconsistency inside the cage and the distractions outside of it, I think Wang is the more composed fighter. I love Wang in this matchup.

Damian Pinas (-186) vs Cesar Almeida (+178)

I’m not sure Almeida has the grappling to survive this matchup.

His kickboxing background has translated well offensively on the feet, but the wrestling and clinch game remain major concerns.

Pinas can compete with Almeida in the striking exchanges, but the real advantage comes if he chooses to wrestle. The takedowns and top control should be available throughout the fight. Pinas is the pick.

Ryan Gandra (-178) vs Zachary Reese (+170)

This is an interesting matchup. Gandra is an incredibly fast starter with serious power and tends to overwhelm opponents early.

Reese has had some strange performances throughout his career. My overall read is that his ceiling isn’t particularly high. He slows down, and while he can steal rounds, I haven’t been sold on him as a long-term UFC fighter.

The biggest question is whether Gandra finds an early finish or fades himself. Since he has shown he can go the distance before, I think the most likely outcome is Gandra doing the more meaningful damage and earning the win.

Cody Durden (+200) vs Alessandro Costa (-250)

Costa is one of my favorite plays on the entire card. He’s a complete fighter with quality striking, solid defensive awareness, and an underrated ground game.

Durden has built a reputation for taking short-notice fights, but his cardio and striking have never been elite. Against someone as technically sound as Costa, that’s a difficult combination.

Costa should light him up on the feet, wear him down early, and take over the fight. Durden is tough, but toughness alone won’t be enough against someone who is better in every area.

UFC 329 Main Event: Conor McGregor +186 vs Max Holloway -194

Holloway all day for me. Conor hasn’t won a fight since 2020 and hasn’t stepped into the cage in five years. Since then, his life outside the sport has been chaotic, with injuries, surgeries, and years of wear and tear.

At 37 years old, I don’t think he’ll have the same elite movement, timing, and counter-striking that made him a champion. He beat Holloway 13 years ago, but he also beat Dustin Poirier in 2014 before losing both rematches years later.

Holloway remains one of the best boxers in MMA. His recent losses came against elite opponents like Charles Oliveira and Ilia Topuria, and even against Topuria he made it into the third round before being stopped.

He’s coming off dominant performances over Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje, and that Gaethje win continues to age well now that Gaethje is the champion. Holloway should be the faster fighter, the jab will be there all night, and I think he makes this look easy.

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