Sean Alvarez

THE PLAY: Maryland +6.5 (-105)

Maryland has had a surprisingly good season so far with a 5-1 record and while they didn’t beat much in the first 3 games of the season, I thought they had a nice 17-point win over Wisconsin and a tough 4-point loss to Washington last week. The running game for Maryland seems to be an afterthought and uses their passing attack to setup their running game. The Terrapins average just 3.3 yards per carry on the year and average just 28.6 rushes per game on the year. Malik Washington has played well at quarterback for Maryland with a 9/2 TD/INT ratio with a 60.1% completion percentage and while the receiving group is not deep, he spreads the ball out to 4 receivers consistently with Octavian Smith and Shaleak Knotts holding 17.1 and 16.9 yards per reception. Maryland has a big play type offense that is going to take shots down field and while Nebraska does have a solid secondary unit, they lack a pass rush to bother Malik and I think we see some big plays from Washington and his receivers.

Dylan Raiola has had a good season so far with a 12/2 TD/INT ratio with a 74.2% completion percentage, but he hasn’t played against much in regard to decent defenses this season. Raiola doesn’t lean on any particular receiver, and they have made big plays this season, but again those came against weak defenses while now going up against a Maryland defense that holds a 92.8 PFF rating and has held opposing offenses to just 96.8 yards rushing per game. That is going to be tough for Nebraska and their running game that they lean on to stay ahead of the chains. Emmett Johnson has a 5.6 yards per carry average with 474 yards on the season, but the Terrapins front 7 should pose issues for Nebraska to get the running game going. 

I think both teams are pretty similar here and am seeing this as a 1 score game, so I am going to take the points with Maryland in a game that I believe they can come away with a win.

THE PLAY: Fresno State -6.5 (-110)

Fresno State is off to a nice start after dropping their season opener to Kansas but winning their next 5 games coming into this matchup. EJ Warner has a solid 72.5% completion percentage with a 7/6 TD/INT ratio but 2 of those interceptions came against Kansas in the season opener leaving him with a 7/4 TD/INT ratio over the next 5 games. The offensive line has done well to keep Warner upright with only 5 sacks given up over the last 5 games after Kansas. The Bulldogs have a strong running game with 2 ‘backs over 346+ yards rushing this season and a 5 & 6.4 yards per carry average while adding 100+ yards receiving average as well. The receiving core is not deep but leans on a 2 receiver and tight end scheme which could pose an issue for a weak Colorado State defense who has given up 191.4 yards rushing per game this season.

Colorado State came out with a solid performance, albeit in a loss, against a top national team in Washington, but have struggled recently with a loss to UTSA, a bad loss to Washington State, but a decent performance last week while putting up 24 points against San Diego State. The Rams have turned to Jackson Brousseau at quarterback who has improved the completion percentage by 11% but that is only up to 64.6% completion percentage on the season. Jalen Dupree leads the running attack for Colorado State with 370 yards on the season with a 5.4 yards per carry average and will need a similar performance as we saw last week against SDSU to be competitive against Fresno State. The passing game has been weak all season for the Rams, and I am not sold on Brousseau being the answer to the issues we have seen this season.