Andy Lang

THE PLAY: Angel Reese Rebounds Over 11.5 (-105)

I really like Angel Reese in this spot against the Golden State Valkyries, and the numbers back it up. Reese has grabbed 12 and 16 rebounds in the first two games of this series, clearing this total both times. Even more impressive, she has gone over 11.5 rebounds in every game she's played against Golden State in her career. That's exactly the kind of consistency I want when attacking a rebounding prop.

The way this series has been played is another major reason I like this bet. Both teams have been playing tough, physical defense, and the games have been staying under their totals. That means plenty of contested shots, lower shooting percentages and more opportunities for rebounds.

Just look at the last game, when the two teams combined for 81 missed shots. That's an enormous number of potential rebounding opportunities, and it's exactly the kind of environment where a player like Reese can thrive. We don't need either offense to have a big night. In fact, another defensive battle with plenty of missed shots works perfectly for this play.

Reese has already shown she can dominate the glass in this matchup, and with 12 and 16 rebounds in the series, we're not asking her to do anything she hasn't consistently done against this opponent.

We're getting a proven rebounder who has cleared this number in every career meeting with Golden State, playing in a series where defense and missed shots are creating plenty of opportunities. I expect Reese to be active on the glass once again.

THE PLAY: North Texas Total Over 31.5 (-108)

I absolutely love what North Texas has been doing offensively, and I think we're getting a very manageable team total against a Navy defense that has really struggled lately. The Mean Green offense has been humming since Week 2, and I don't see the Midshipmen having much success slowing them down.

Just look at the offensive production North Texas has put together. They've scored 44 points against UNLV, 35 against Texas State, 63 against Houston Christian, 45 against Tulsa and 50 against Charlotte. That's five games with at least 35 points, and we're only being asked to get to 32 on Saturday afternoon.

What's impressive about this offense is how balanced and explosive it has become. North Texas quarterbacks have combined for over 2,000 passing yards and 17 touchdown passes, while the rushing attack is averaging 5.1 yards per carry with 14 touchdowns. That's a dangerous combination because defenses can't simply focus on stopping one aspect of the offense. North Texas can beat you through the air or on the ground.

Now let's look at Navy's defense, because I don't like what I've seen from the Midshipmen recently. They've allowed 34 points to UTSA and 26 to Tulsa over their last two games. Last week alone, Navy surrendered 350 passing yards and three passing touchdowns. That's a major concern when you're preparing to face a North Texas offense that has been consistently putting up big numbers.

The weather also looks like it should cooperate, which is another positive for this play. With favorable conditions expected in Annapolis, North Texas should be able to operate its offense without having to worry about the elements disrupting the passing game.

We're getting an offense that has scored at least 35 points in five of its recent games, facing a Navy defense that has been vulnerable through the air and struggling to keep opponents off the scoreboard. North Texas has too many offensive weapons, and I expect another big afternoon from the Mean Green.