Andy Lang

THE PLAY: North Texas Total Over 30.5 (-109)

North Texas is rebuilding under Neal Brown, but through two games I think this offense is ahead of schedule. The opener was a brutal assignment on the road against defending national champion Indiana, and even in a 52-16 loss there were positives. Tayven Jackson completed 22 of 28 passes for 192 yards, and North Texas had 16 points through three quarters before the game completely got away from them.

Then we saw what this offense could do against a much more reasonable opponent. UNLV went into North Texas in a game where the Mean Green were actually underdogs, and North Texas absolutely destroyed them 44-6. Jackson threw for 233 yards and two touchdowns, while the Mean Green ran for 183 yards and averaged right around 4.8 yards per carry. They scored on the ground, through the air and put up 44 against a UNLV team that was expected to be competitive.

Now they get a Texas State defense that has been getting shredded. The Bobcats opened the season by allowing 59 points at Texas, then came home and lost 31-26 to UTSA. Through two games, Texas State is allowing 45 points and 457 yards per game, including more than 300 passing yards per game. That's a major step down in defensive difficulty from what North Texas faced at Indiana.

Jackson is also starting to look comfortable in this offense. He's completing 68.5% of his passes through two games, and against UNLV we saw North Texas establish the running game while still creating explosive plays through the air. That's exactly what I want when playing a team total—we don't need North Texas to rely on one specific part of the offense.

The full-game total is sitting around 63.5, so the market is already expecting points in this matchup. I think North Texas can hold up its end. This is a rebuilding roster, but there appears to be legitimate offensive talent here, and the 44-point performance against UNLV showed how quickly things may be coming together.

We only need 31 points against a Texas State defense that has allowed 59 and 31 in its first two games.