Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Total Over 161.5 (-110)

The Connecticut Sun enter Thursday’s contest off their first victory of the season, riding back-to-back strong offensive showings—87 points versus the Dallas Wings and 85 against a shorthanded Indiana Fever. Tina Charles and Marina Mabrey have led the surge. Despite the Sun’s 12th ranked defensive rating, their newfound offensive confidence cannot be ignored. They’ll look to continue this momentum against a New York Liberty squad that has yet to drop a game and remains one of the league’s most efficient offenses.

New York’s undefeated start has been built on a fast-paced, high-efficiency attack that overwhelmed their opponents so far. While they went under in three straight games, that trend can be attributed to rotation management during a compressed schedule—three games in four nights. In this game the Liberty should return to their customary up-tempo style, pushing the ball and attacking at all levels. This should generate plenty of high-percentage looks early, creating a large scoring gap that forces their opponent into hurried possessions.

Given Connecticut’s surge—scoring 87 and 85 points in back-to-back outings—and New York’s capacity to explode offensively, the conditions are ripe for an Over 161.5 finish. Expect New York to dominate early, compel the Sun into a faster pace, and ultimately, the Sun shoudl do enough offensively to push the combined total past 161.5.