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Free Picks

Sport

Game Selection

Game Time

MLB

(907) Los Angeles Dodgers at (908) Colorado Rockies: Total

3:10pm EDT - Apr 19/2026

THE PLAY: Total Over 11.5 (-110) Action

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LAD at COL Projection

The game is set for Sunday, April 19, 2026 at Coors Field, with Roki Sasaki starting for Los Angeles and Michael Lorenzen for Colorado. The live board showed Dodgers -293, Rockies +234, and a total of 11.0 to 11.5, with 11.5 shaded near even on the over and slight juice on the under. Conditions project much better for offense than the freezing opener of the series: around 58-65°F, mostly clear, and playable air in Denver.

The core run environment is still Coors-first. Los Angeles has been the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching so far, with a .786 OPS, while Colorado has been more middle-of-the-pack against righties at .688. The Dodgers also entered in much better current form, with 58 runs over their last 10 games, while the Rockies had 37 over their last 10.

The starting-pitching matchup is a blend of ceiling and volatility. Sasaki entered with a 6.23 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 15 strikeouts, and only 13.0 innings, and his 2026 splits show more trouble in day games and in April. Lorenzen entered with an 8.10 ERA, 2.22 WHIP, 13 strikeouts, and 16.2 innings, which is the weaker current baseline of the two. Neither side had a usable in-window batter-vs-pitcher history surfaced for this specific matchup, so direct head-to-head weight stays light.

Bullpen and team-form context lean hard toward Los Angeles. The Dodgers have the best team ERA in baseball over the last 10 games at 2.43 with a 1.00 WHIP in that span, while the Rockies sat 17th by team ERA over the last 10. Los Angeles also won Friday’s opener 7-1 and has been one of the hottest teams in the league overall, while Colorado entered 3-7 over its last 10.

The expected lineup core used here leans on the active Dodgers regulars around Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández, Max Muncy, and Dalton Rushing, with Colorado built around Mickey Moniak, Hunter Goodman, Tyler Freeman, Brenton Doyle, and the current active regular group. Saturday’s confirmed Dodgers lineup showed Ohtani, Tucker, Pages, Freeman, Hernández, Muncy, and Rushing together, and ESPN’s game preview listed Muncy and Moniak as the home-run leaders for the two clubs entering Sunday.

The model starts from a high total because of Coors Field and Lorenzen’s current baseline, then trims slightly because Sasaki still has enough swing-and-miss to keep Colorado from fully breaking loose. It also avoids a no-bottom-9th suppression because Los Angeles is the road team, making a full nine innings more likely than in a home-favorite setup. The result is a Dodgers win projection with a total almost exactly on the market.

Projected Score

Segment	LAD	COL	Total
1st 5 innings	4.0	2.4	6.4
Full game	7.1	4.5	11.6

Projected Starting Pitcher Boxscores

Pitcher	IP	ER	H	K	BB
Roki Sasaki	5 0/3	3	5	6	3
Michael Lorenzen	4 1/3	5	7	4	2

Projected LAD Hitter Boxscore

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO
Shohei Ohtani	5	1	2	1	0	1	1
Kyle Tucker	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
Andy Pages	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
Freddie Freeman	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
Teoscar Hernández	5	0	1	0	0	1	2
Max Muncy	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
Dalton Rushing	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
Hyeseong Kim	4	0	1	0	1	0	1
Tommy Edman	4	0	1	0	0	0	1

Projected COL Hitter Boxscore

Hitter	AB	BB	H	2B	HR	SO
Tyler Freeman	5	0	2	1	0	1
Mickey Moniak	5	0	1	0	1	2
Hunter Goodman	4	1	1	1	0	1
Brenton Doyle	4	0	1	0	0	2
Kris Bryant	4	0	1	0	0	1
Nolan Jones	4	0	1	1	0	2
Ezequiel Tovar	4	0	0	0	0	1
Jacob Stallings	3	1	0	0	0	1
Jordan Beck	4	0	1	0	0	2

Wager & Probability Analysis (Model-Driven)

Market	Consensus odds	Model win / hit %	Fair odds	Consensus minus projected	Value	Confidence
LAD moneyline	-293	72.5%	-264	-29 cents	No value	3
COL moneyline	+234	27.5%	+264	-30 cents	No value	3
Full game over 11.5	-108	50.6%	-102	+6 cents	Small value	2
Full game under 11.5	-112	49.4%	+102	-10 cents	No value	2
Full game over 11.0	around -108 equivalent	53.3% non-push	-114	Small value	Small value	2
Full game under 11.0	around -112 equivalent	46.7% non-push	+114	No value	No value	2

Tokyo's Clutch Index - runner on third with less than 2 outs

Team	Rank	OPS
LAD	1	.786
COL	21	.688

Two-Team Ranking Snapshot

Category	LAD	COL
Starting pitcher ERA+WHIP curve rank	Roki Sasaki: 25th	Michael Lorenzen: 30th
Bullpen last 10 days ERA+WHIP curve rank	1st	17th
Lineup run production last 10 days curve rank	2nd	21st

Bottom Line

The game projects almost exactly where the market is already sitting. The strongest lean is a small over position at 11.5.

WagerTalk TV

Last 20

Date

Sport

Pick

Result

Apr 18

MLB

Detroit Tigers -1 (-123) Tarik Skubal (LHP) Must Start
(Analysis)

Win

Apr 18

MLB

F5 Atlanta Braves +0.5 (-130) Chris Sale (LHP) Must Start
(Analysis)

Win

Apr 18

MLB

Minnesota Twins -134 Action
(Analysis)

Loss

Apr 18

MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-186) Emmet Sheehan (RHP), Ryan Feltner (RHP) Must Start
(Analysis)

Loss

Apr 18

KBO

F5 Kiwoom Heroes Total Under 1.5 (104)
(Analysis)

pending

Apr 18

KBO

KT Wiz -135
(Analysis)

pending

Apr 18

MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates 1st H +0.5 (-236) / Los Angeles Dodgers -1.0 (-250)
(Analysis)

pending

Apr 17

MLB

(913) Kansas City Royals at (914) New York Yankees: F5 Total F5 Total Under 4.5 (-115) Action
(Analysis)

Win

Apr 17

KBO

F5 Hanwha Eagles Total Under 2.5 (-109)
(Analysis)

No Play

Apr 16

KBO

(304659) Kiwoom Heroes at (304660) Kia Tigers: F5 Total F5 Total Under 4.5 (-105)
(Analysis)

Win

Apr 16

KBO

Kia Tigers -146
(Analysis)

Win

Apr 16

KBO

(304657) Samsung Lions at (304658) Hanwha Eagles: F5 Total F5 Total Under 5.0 (-112)
(Analysis)

Win

Apr 16

MLB

(963) Baltimore Orioles at (964) Cleveland Guardians: F5 Total F5 Total Under 4.5 (-136) Action
(Analysis)

Win

Apr 16

MLB

F5 Colorado Rockies Total Over 1.5 (-134) Action
(Analysis)

Win

Apr 16

MLB

F5 Toronto Blue Jays Total Over 1.5 (-148) Action
(Analysis)

Loss

Apr 16

MLB

(955) Kansas City Royals at (956) Detroit Tigers: F5 Total F5 Total Under 4.5 (-120) Action
(Analysis)

Loss

Apr 15

KBO

SSG Landers -121
(Analysis)

Win

Apr 15

MLB

Atlanta Braves -1 (-125) Action
(Analysis)

Win

Apr 15

MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers -1 (-126) Shohei Ohtani (RHP) Must Start
(Analysis)

Win

Apr 15

MLB

Cleveland Guardians 100 Action
(Analysis)

Loss

Consultant Bio

Don't look at streaks, look at seasons... #1 all sports profit at Wager Talk 3 of the last 5 years.

You won't see Brandon talking about how he did in 7 or 3 days, he talks about how he does in seasons. #1 at Wager Talk 3 of the last 5 years in profit. Brandon scouted Japanese baseball for the Pacific Rim Scouting Department of a Major League Baseball team for ten years and is based in Tokyo, Japan. Brandon is Wager Talk's #1 all-sports profit capper in 2021 (+256 units), 2022 (+127 units) and 2024 (+180 units). He now uses his mathematical probabilities and scouting analyses to handicap sports including Japanese baseball, Korean baseball, Asian basketball and MLB.

Brandon has lived in Japan since 1992 and is originally from Phoenix, Arizona. Brandon graduated from The University of Arizona with a BA degree in Japanese Studies in 1992.

** Actual client recommendations: ( Click here for twitter feed @Tokyo_Brandon )

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