Marco D'Angelo
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Last updated Oct 13, 1:22 AM EDT
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Free Picks
THE PLAY: Michigan +7.5 (-112)
I’m taking Michigan plus the points. Just like last week when we backed Tennessee against Alabama, this is as much a fade of the favorite as it is a play on the underdog.
Alabama entered that matchup coming off a major loss, had to regroup quickly, and then went into a difficult road environment laying points. Tennessee won outright. Now Indiana finds itself in a similar situation after suffering its first loss of the season in crushing fashion.
Indiana had the potential game-winning touchdown in its hands, only for the receiver to come up inches short of staying in bounds. That is the kind of loss that can linger. The Hoosiers now have to recover emotionally, go on the road, and win by enough to cover as the favorite. This fits the classic “lose the same game twice” setup: a team pours everything into one game and struggles to find that same intensity the following week.
Indiana’s recent results also suggest it is more vulnerable than the market may be pricing. Three of its last four games have been decided by one possession. Even if the Hoosiers are the better team on paper, they have not consistently created separation.
Michigan has two losses and arguably could have a third, but its defense has been outstanding. The Wolverines have held all six opponents to 20 points or fewer, giving them a strong foundation to stay competitive even when the offense is not at its best. I always say that when the better defense is getting points, I’m interested.
The combination of Michigan’s defense and Indiana’s difficult emotional reset makes the Wolverines the side here. I expect a tight game from start to finish, and I’m grabbing the points with Michigan.
THE PLAY: Iowa State +10.5 (-104)
I’m backing Iowa State plus the points in a matchup where the scheduling spot favors the Cyclones. Both teams are coming off a bye, but they entered that break heading in completely different directions.
Arizona went into its bye riding a four-game winning streak after a 52–31 victory over West Virginia. That is not always the ideal time for a break. When a team is rolling, a bye can interrupt its rhythm. I much prefer backing a team that enters the bye on a bad note, giving the coaching staff two weeks to identify problems, make adjustments, and get everyone refocused. Iowa State fits that profile.
Arizona also has its biggest game of the season on deck next week at Texas Tech. That creates a potential look-ahead spot for the Wildcats, who could be tempted to look past a 3–3 Iowa State team.
But the Cyclones’ record does not tell the whole story. All three losses have come by 14 points or fewer, and two came against Utah and BYU—both currently ranked in the top 10. Iowa State’s defense has kept it competitive, and that ability to hang around matters when we are getting points.
The combination of two weeks to regroup, a competitive defense, and an Arizona team potentially looking ahead makes this an attractive spot for the underdog. I expect Iowa State to make the Wildcats work for everything and keep this closer than the records might suggest.
Take Iowa State plus the points.
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Consultant Bio
Marco D'Angelo has been a professional sports handicapper and bettor since 1980. Marco moved to Las Vegas in 2008. During the 2010 Baseball Season, Marco made handicapping history when he won a documented 25 Baseball Games in a row. Even more impressive was the fact that he never laid more than -120 in any of the 25 plays. The Sports Monitor of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, documented the 25-game winning streak. Marco is a 2 Time winner of Preferred Picks Wise Guy Football Contest. Marco is regarded as one of the country's top Big Play Experts given the success he's enjoyed with his 5% Major Wager Plays!
Marco has been featured as a guest handicapper on several radio shows as he has been on ESPN regional and national shows, Yahoo Sports Radio, Sports Overnight America, as well as appearing on shows covering regional teams in both College and Pro sports. Marco was co-host of a successful Las Vegas Show for several years. Marco is also the go-to guy for Horse Racing information from media outlets.
Follow Marco on twitter: @MarcoInVegas
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