Tokyo Brandon

THE PLAY: Los Angeles Dodgers -210 Tarik Skubal (LHP) Must Start

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Dodgers ML

• Skubal is the clear pitching edge. He just struck out 11 over seven innings against Pittsburgh, allowing the Dodgers to come back from an early 3-0 deficit and win 4-3. That was his strongest Dodgers start yet and suggests his stuff is in very good shape entering Detroit.

• This is Skubal against his former team. He knows Detroit's hitters, organization and park extremely well. Before the trade, he had a 2.67 career ERA at Comerica Park across 77 appearances, so this is hardly an unfamiliar road environment.

• Detroit's offense has been struggling badly. As recently as August 22, the Tigers had lost 7 of 8 games, and against Kansas City they managed only three hits and one run. That is a rough setup when the next elite lefty they see is Skubal.

• Anderson has been serviceable, but his underlying profile is less impressive than his recent ERA. He moved from the bullpen into Detroit's rotation after personnel losses and entered his last start with a 2.84 ERA as a starter, but his strikeout-to-walk profile and FIP pointed toward regression.

• Anderson hasn't been going particularly deep. His recent starts have generally been around five innings. He allowed 3 runs in 5+ innings against Kansas City last time out. That means Los Angeles should get multiple innings against the Detroit bullpen even if Anderson keeps the game competitive early.

• Huge lineup-depth advantage. Los Angeles enters 80-54, compared with Detroit at 62-71. The Dodgers can beat you throughout the lineup rather than relying on one or two hitters to generate offense.

• Los Angeles had been playing its best baseball of the summer before the Atlanta series. The Dodgers recently put together a five-game winning streak, their longest since May. Even after Atlanta cooled them off, the underlying roster quality hasn't changed.

• Detroit traded away Skubal and Casey Mize, which materially weakened the club. Anderson is in the rotation largely because of those departures. Los Angeles essentially took Detroit's best starting pitcher and now gets to use him against Detroit. That's a pretty nasty matchup swing.

THE PLAY: Yomiuri Giants +1.5 (-156)

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Nearly everything about this matchup points toward a low-scoring, one-run type of game.

1. Howard gives Yomiuri a real chance to keep Hanshin suppressed. Howard has been one of Yomiuri’s better run-prevention starters, and his recent starts have been especially strong. Yomiuri beat Chunichi 1-0 on August 14 behind Howard and beat Hiroshima 2-0 on August 21 with Howard starting. That matters enormously for +1.5 because you don’t necessarily need Yomiuri to hit Murakami well—you mainly need Howard to stop Hanshin from creating separation.

2. The total is only 5 runs. The current market has this game at O/U 5, with Hanshin around -170 on the moneyline. A total this low makes +1.5 much more powerful than it would be in a normal 7–8 run environment. If the expected score distribution centers around something like 2-1, 2-2, 1-0 or 3-2, Yomiuri +1.5 survives most of those outcomes.

3. Yomiuri doesn't even have to win. These all cash:

• Hanshin 1-0

• Hanshin 2-1

• Hanshin 3-2

• Yomiuri 1-0

• Yomiuri 2-1

• Any Yomiuri win

You're really only worried about Hanshin winning by 2+ runs.

4. Hanshin's offense has not been consistently explosive recently. From August 18 through August 26, Hanshin scored 3, 2, 1, 4, 5, 2 and 0 runs in its completed games. That's a lot of games where Hanshin's total offensive output would make covering -1.5 difficult.

5. Koshien supports the +1.5. This isn't Tokyo Dome. In a game with Howard and Murakami at Koshien, the setting generally reinforces the low-scoring structure that makes taking an underdog with an extra run attractive.

6. Murakami being dominant doesn't automatically hurt this bet. This is important. Murakami could pitch seven innings of one-run baseball and Yomiuri +1.5 could still cash easily. Earlier this month Murakami held Yomiuri to one run over eight innings in a 9-1 Hanshin win, so obviously the blowout risk exists. But the big difference tonight is Howard starting for Yomiuri rather than Yamasaki. You're betting on Howard preventing the Hanshin side of that previous 9-1 result.

7. Yomiuri has recently shown it can win close games. Before this series, Yomiuri had wins of 2-0, 5-0, 8-6 and 5-3 among its latest results. The key for +1.5 isn't offensive dominance; it's remaining competitive deep into the game.

The matchup path I like

My basic game script is:

Through 5:
Yomiuri 0-1
Hanshin 0-1

Then the bullpens decide it.

I'd center the final-score distribution around something like:

Hanshin 2-1
Yomiuri 2-1
Hanshin 3-2

All three cash Yomiuri +1.5.

Biggest pros

My probability

I would put Yomiuri +1.5 full game around 67–69% to cash.

The biggest risk is simply that Murakami completely shuts Yomiuri down while Hanshin gets one bad inning against Howard/bullpen and wins 3-0 or 4-0. But in this particular low-total matchup, I think the one-run loss protection is extremely valuable.