Kyle Anthony

THE PLAY: Malcolm Wellmaker Wins By TKO/KO (+140)

Malcolm Wellmaker enters Saturday’s fight looking to rebound from a highly disappointing loss in his most recent outing against Ethyn Ewing. Heading into that bout Wellmaker was a significant -410 favorite, while Ewing came in on short notice for his UFC debut. Against expectations Ewing delivered a strong performance, earning a hard fought decision victory over Wellmaker in a competitive striking battle. Ewing edged the total strikes 85-77 but it was his three takedowns that proved decisive in securing the win. In hindsight, Wellmaker appeared to underestimate the challenge, perhaps taking the short notice opponent a bit lightly. Since then Ewing has continued to impress, picking up another victory inside the distance with a knockout in his next fight. That back-to-back success has solidified the view that Ewing is a legitimate prospect with a strong pace, constant pressure and well-rounded skills that make him a handful for anyone in the division. For Wellmaker, this matchup Saturday night represents an ideal opportunity to get back on track. He possesses legitimate one-punch knockout power, with four of his last five wins coming by way of knockout. He is an explosive athlete who has quick developing combinations, transitions smoothly between stances and showcases noticeably sharper and more polished striking than most fighters at this level. His dynamic movement and explosive power make him dangerous when the fight stays on the feet. Diaz, by contrast, brings a similar stylistic approach to Ewing. Relentless pressure boxing with the ability to mix in takedowns and solid durability but he sits several notches below Ewing. He is still relatively green, riding momentum from a standout Contender Series performance where he finished Won Kwon with a highlight-reel spinning back elbow. While that moment stole the show, the fight was far more competitive than the finish suggested, Kwon was landing clean shots and staying in the fight until the dramatic conclusion. Kwon’s own striking, power, and footwork were well below Wellmaker’s level, which underscores how much more difficult Diaz’s task will be here. I expect this fight to play out primarily on the feet, which plays directly into Wellmaker’s strengths. Diaz’s striking is relatively slow, basic while limited in variety and he tends to be quite hittable when exchanging in the pocket. His willingness to stand and trade should create openings for Wellmaker to unleash his heavier hands and sharper combinations. While Diaz may attempt wrestling, I do not foresee him generating sustained success against Wellmaker’s athleticism and defensive instincts. All things considered, this looks like a favorable spot for Malcolm Wellmaker to rediscover his winning ways. Expect him to capitalize on the matchup with a violent finish, likely a brutal knockout that puts his UFC career back on the upward trajectory.