Kyle Anthony

THE PLAY: Joel Alvarez +155

Yaroslav Amosov enters this contest with an impressive 29-1 professional record and arrives as a former champion from other organizations. In his UFC debut he did submitted an aging Neil Magny in round 1. His primary strategy is to wrestle, secure takedowns and establishing dominant top control once the fight hits the mat. What makes this matchup particularly compelling is Joel Alvarez’s comfort when fighting off his back. Alvarez possesses elite grappling ability that allows him to remain dangerous even in inferior positions. He actively hunts for submissions from bottom guard and demonstrates remarkable creativity in setting them up. His submission arsenal is broad and versatile enabling him to finish fights from virtually any angle at any moment. Out of his 23 victories, 17of those were by submission. Amosov’s wrestling base virtually guarantees he will pursue takedowns early and often. Yet those entries play straight into Alvarez’s greatest strength. Joel deliberately invites opponents into grappling exchanges because he trusts his superior skill once the fight reaches the canvas. It is difficult to envision Amosov maintaining prolonged top pressure without facing constant submission threats. Every moment spent on the ground carries legitimate finishing danger for the Yaroslav. Should the bout remain standing Alvarez enjoys an even more pronounced advantage. He is the far more polished and powerful striker of the two. His arsenal features devastating knees, heavy elbows and significant power behind every shot. Even in the clinch he's especially destructive relentlessly accumulating damage in tight against his opponents. Amosov’s stand-up game by contrast remains relatively basic and lacks the technical depth Alvarez displays. This disparity leaves Amosov in a precarious spot. He must contend with a dangerous submission threat on the ground while facing a superior striker on the feet. These factors allow Alvarez to control the tempo and fight as the clear aggressor. He can choose when to engage in grappling exchanges and when to press the action at range. This also represents a significant step up in competition for Amosov who has spent much of his career competing in minor leagues in organizations such as Bellator. Alvarez on the other hand has consistently tested himself against UFC level opposition and found success. Overall Alvarez stands out as the more violent fighter with substantial finishing upside and brings superior experience against higher caliber competition. At a plus money price tag in a favorable matchup give me Joel Alvarez to get the win and cash this play!