Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: Napoli -1.0 (-107)

Napoli vs Bologna
Serie A, Monday, 2:45pm ET

Play: Napoli -1
Odds at Time of Release: -107
Line Parameter: Line good to -120

Napoli are sitting 2nd with 70 points but still haven't booked a ticket to next season's Champions League, as Juventus are 2 points behind, Milan and Roma are 3 points behind and Como are 5 points behind, however all these teams have played one more match. That means that if Napoli manage to beat Bologna on Monday they will go to 73 points and their last two matches of the season are against bottom-feeders Pisa and mid-table Udinese, so they'll have extremely high chances of finishing in the top-4.

Napoli are coming into this match in mediocre form with just 1 win in L/4 (W1 D2 L1), but the Draw was on the road against Parma where they dominated the game (1.22 xG with 20 shots and 6 on target, to Pisa's 0.2 xG with 3 shots and 2 on target), a home loss to Lazio by 2-0 but they've won just 1 of L/8 against them, a logical 4-0 home win vs Cremonese and a goal-less draw away at Como, who have the best defense in the Serie A.

Napoli have the 2nd best home record in the Serie A with a W12 D4 L1 and a +15 goal difference, and have won 4 of L/5 at home. They do have injuries to Lukaku and Neres, but have learned to live life without them.

Bologna have deflated after their deep run in the Europa League, where they were eliminated to Aston Villa, came back to not win any of their last 3 Serie A matches (D1 L2), with losses to Juventus (2-0 on the road), Roma (2-0 at home) and a goal-less draw against Cagliari at home. They failed to score in all 3, struggling to even create chances, let alone convert them.

Bologna's last league goals came over a month ago and against teams from the bottom half: Lecce (#17), Cremonese (#18), Verona (#19) and Sassuolo (#11).

Napoli beat Bologna by 2-0 in the Super Cup (on neutral ground), lost 2-0 in Bologna earlier in the season, but have done well as hosts against them in recent years, winning 4 of L/5 in this venue, and 9 of L/11 (W9 L2).

Napoli haven't exactly been rolling lately, but neither have Bologna, so Napoli can take advantage of that and get a valuable win, especially since Bologna have struggled on the road against the top teams this season (2-0 loss at Juventus, 2-0 loss to Napoli, 3-1 loss at Inter Milan.

Take 2% on Napoli -1 (-107), line good to -120

THE PLAY: Penalty Kick Awarded (+210)

Tondela vs Moreirense
Portugal, Monday, 3:15pm ET

Play: Penalty Kick Awarded
Odds at Time of Release: +210 FanDuel
Line Parameter: Line good to +200

Moreirense have nothing to play for in terms of points, sitting 7th with 42 points and no chance to make it to the top-4. They are hosted by Tondela, who have everything to play for as they are sitting 17th with 25 points, 1 point behind the relegation playoffs spot, and 3 points behind salvation. This is the penultimate match of the season, with Tondela also playing against the indifferent Arouca in the final match day.

In Tondela's L/10 matches we saw 11 Penalty Kicks, 3 Own Goals and 3 Red Cards:

1-0 win at Casa Pia: 2 Red Cards for Casa Pia, 1 Penalty Kick for Tondela
2-2 draw at Sporting: 2 Own Goals (1 for each team), 1 Penalty Kick for Tondela
2-0 loss vs Nacional: Own Goal by Tondela
2-0 loss at Porto: 1 Penalty Kick for Porto
2-2 draw vs Gil Vicente: 2 Penalty Kicks (1 for each team)
5-0 loss at Guimaraes: 2 Penalty Kicks for Guimaraes
0-0 Draw vs AFS: -
1-0 loss vs Rio Ave: Penalty Kick for Rio Ave
2-2 draw vs Santa Clara: 2 Penalty Kicks (1 for each team)
2-0 win at Estrela: 1 Penalty Kick for Tondela, 1 Red Card for Estrela

Oddly enough, Tondela have been awarded the 2nd most Penalty Kicks in the league with 13.

And they are now playing against Moreirense, who have the MOST Penalty Kicks Against with 13, and their last game (against Estrela who are also fighting relegation) had three penalty kicks. Their match against Casa Pia (also inside the relegation zone) had a Penalty Kick for each team, their match against Nacional (also fighting for relegation) had 2 Penalty Kicks for Nacional.

Referee is Ricardo Baixinho, one of the best (if not the best) for Penalty Kicks and Red Cards:

2025/26 Liga Portugal (9 matches): 6 Red Cards, 6 Penalty Kicks
2025/26 All domestic (16 matches): 13 Red Cards, 9 Penalty Kicks

2024/25 Liga Portugal (8 matches): 3 Red Cards, 2 Penalty Kicks
2024/25 All domestic (16 matches): 9 Red Cards, 10 Penalty Kicks

2023/24: Liga Portugal (10 matches): 5 Red Cards, 3 Penalty Kicks
2023/24: All domestic (23 matches): 8 Red Cards, 10 Penalty Kicks

Lifetime: 124 domestic matches, 66 Red Cards (0.53/game), 58 Penalty Kicks (0.46/game).

These are pretty astronomical numbers for a referee, basically gives a red card in 1 of every 2 games, and a Penalty Kick in 1 of every 2 games.

Take 1% on Penalty Kick Awarded (+210 FanDuel), line good to +200