Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: Both Teams to Score (-150)

Colombia vs Portugal
World Cup, Saturday, 7:30pm ET

Play: Both Teams to Score
Odds at Time of Release: -150
Line Parameter: Line good to -165

Colombia currently top of the group with 6 points, they can lock the top spot with a win or a draw. Portugal 2nd with 4 points, they can only move at the top with a win, a draw would see them lock the 2nd spot, while a loss could potentially drop them to third, only if DR Congo win their match and cover the goal difference, which seems unlikely. So basically we have Colombia who will top the group with a win or a draw, and Portugal can only do so with a win.

Whoever finishes 2nd will play against the 2nd from Group L, which will either be England, Ghana or Croatia. England will probably not be 2nd, as they are playing against Panama, so basically Ghana or Croatia.

The winner of the group will play against either Ecuador, Senegal or whoever finishes third in the England group (again, most likely Croatia or Ghana).

We rarely see teams in a spot like Colombia intentionally lose, but you never know. Portugal looked lethal in their last game vs Uzbekistan but it was against Uzbekistan. And they improved their tactics, for example it was Nuno Mendes who took a Free Kick that in 99% of the situations in the past would've been taken by Cristiano. So Portugal might actually have some sense and changing their tactics for the greater good.

Colombia do not have a good defense, but they do make up for it through their offense. And Portugal haven't exactly been water-tight at the back under coach Martinez, conceded goals to DR Congo, even Uzbekistan (albeit ruled out for a foul), vs Nigeria and Chile in friendlies, vs ARMENIA in the qualifiers, 2 vs Ireland, 2 and 2 vs Hungary.

In the nations league conceded 2 vs Spain, 1 vs Germany, 2 and 1 vs Denmark, 1 and 1 vs Croatia, 1 vs Scotland, you get the picture. In L/23 competitive matches under coach Martinez, Portugal have kept just 7 clean sheets, and have conceded goals against teams that are far less lethal than Colombia.

Colombia conceded vs Uzbekistan, 3 vs Venezuela, both matches vs Argentina were BTTS, both matches vs Brazil were BTTS, so again, you get the picture.

Take 2% on Both Teams to Score (-150), line good to -160