Marco D'Angelo

THE PLAY: Atlanta Falcons +3.0 (100)

Cincinnati enters this matchup in a difficult scheduling spot, while Atlanta has an opportunity to rebound from a performance that could make the Bengals look more attractive than they should.

The Bengals beat division rival Baltimore two weeks ago, needed overtime to get past Tennessee last week, and now must travel to Spain. That’s a demanding sequence, but the bigger concern is what comes next: a matchup with Pittsburgh that could carry first-place implications. With a major divisional showdown on deck, this sets up as a potential look-ahead spot for Cincinnati.

Atlanta, meanwhile, is coming off an ugly 16–0 loss to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers won without completing a pass, as Baker Mayfield went 0-for-3 and Tampa Bay rushed 56 times for 324 yards in a rainstorm. The Falcons never established an offensive rhythm, but I’m reluctant to treat such an unusual game as the best measure of this team.

The timing matters, too. That performance followed Atlanta’s upset of previously unbeaten San Francisco—a spot that had all the ingredients for a post-upset letdown. Before the Tampa Bay debacle, the Falcons had gone 3–2 over a five-game stretch, with both losses coming by one score. There’s more competitiveness here than last week’s shutout suggests.

The matchup also gives Atlanta a path to a better offensive performance. Cincinnati allowed 158 rushing yards to Tennessee last week and 217 to Miami three games ago. I expect the Falcons to attack that vulnerability, establish their running game, and take pressure off Michael Penix Jr. Sustaining drives on the ground would also help Atlanta control the pace rather than asking its quarterback to carry the offense.

This play comes down to looking beyond the most recent results. Cincinnati escaped with an overtime win, while Atlanta looked dreadful in an unusual, weather-driven game. With the Bengals facing travel, accumulated fatigue, and a significant divisional matchup next week, I’m backing the Falcons to deliver a much sharper effort.

TAKE ATLANTA +3

THE PLAY: Notre Dame -7.0 (-115)

The long-awaited Miami–Notre Dame rematch is here, and I’m backing the Irish behind the stronger defense and plenty of motivation.

Miami beat Notre Dame by three points last season, a result that helped propel the Hurricanes into the College Football Playoff while leaving the Irish out. Notre Dame has had this matchup circled ever since, and the opportunity to strengthen its own playoff position while settling that score adds another layer to an already significant game.

Both teams delivered flat performances last week, which is understandable with this showdown looming. I’m more concerned, however, with Miami’s recent stretch than with either team’s most recent outing. The Hurricanes have survived two scares in their last three games and surrendered 35 points in two of those contests. Those defensive lapses make them difficult to trust against an opponent of Notre Dame’s caliber.

The Irish have been much more consistent defensively. No opponent has scored more than 28 points against Notre Dame this season, and six of its eight opponents have been held to 13 points or fewer. That ability to limit scoring is the foundation of my handicap—not simply the revenge angle.

The playoff stakes give Notre Dame additional urgency, but motivation alone isn’t enough to win a matchup like this. The Irish also bring the more dependable defense, while Miami enters with recent warning signs on that side of the ball. I expect Notre Dame’s defensive consistency to make the difference and put the Irish in position to avenge last season’s loss.