Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: Over 2.75 (-115)

Turkey vs USA
World Cup, Thursday, 10pm ET

Play: Over 2.75 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -115
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Meaningless match in this group, with USA having already topped the group no matter what happens, and with Turkey having already been eliminated. However, the Turks are a prideful people and will not want to go back home with ZERO points and ZERO goals in the bag. The situation is already bad as it is, they will just look to make it slightly better by having a good game against the hosts here.

USA will most likely have to rotate, as they got 4 players on one card, and if they get carded again they will miss the Round of 32. Those players are Robinson, Richards, Balogun and Adams. The SMART thing for a manager to do is to not use them at all, protecting them from getting carded or injured, but also giving the bench players a chance to shine.

USA are playing good, offensive soccer, that leaves open spaces at the back. The fact that they didn’t concede against Australia was due to pure luck. These two met in a friendly a few months back, where Turkey won by 2-1, and this time around there is absolutely no reason for either side to sit back and play defense.

Expecting fireworks here, going with the Over 2.75 Goals (split line of Over 2.5 and Over 3 Goals). This bet is a Full Win at 4 goals or more, is a half win/half push if there are exactly 3 goals, and loses entirely at zero, one or two goals.

The Play is Over 2.75 Goals (-115), line good to -125

THE PLAY: Chong 2+ Fouls Won (-350) & Christ Inao Oulai 2+ Fouls Won (-180) final price +101

Curacao vs Ivory Coast
World Cup, Thursday, 4pm ET

Play: Chong 2+ Fouls Won (-350) & Christ Inao Oulai 2+ Fouls Won (-180)
Odds at Time of Release: +101
Line Parameter: Line good to -120

Germany have already topped the group no matter what happens in these two matches, and Ivory Coast are sitting 2^nd with 3 points. They’ve already beaten Ecuador, so they are better in case of a tie with them, so that basically means that even a Draw vs Curacao would be enough to seal the 2^nd spot. Be careful with the big spreads here, because Ivory Coast DON’T EVEN NEED TO WIN. Let alone by 3 goals or more. Not saying they won’t win, but we’ve seen stranger things. Skipping past the sides and totals and going straight to some player props.

Chong fouls suffered: 8 vs Germany, 3 vs Ecuador
Chong got fouled 5 times in the friendly vs Scotland, 2 times in 45 mins vs Australia, 3 times in 45 minutes vs China. He was averaging well above 2.5 Fouls Won/game as a starter with Birmingham and Luton Town a few years back.

3+ Fouls Won is -121 at B365 / -130 at FD

2+ Fouls Won is -350 at FD and we are picking this as the first leg of our parlay.

Christ Inao Oulai Fouls suffered: 1 vs Germany, 2 vs Ecuador in 20 minutes.
Fouls suffered in the AFCON: 2/3/7/2
Fouled once in 22 minutes vs France in a friendly, once in 90 minutes vs Scotland,

He is projected to start in midfield for Ivory Coast on Thursday, and this is a player that carries the ball a lot, makes deep runs towards the opposing defense and he gets fouled a LOT.

Curacao’s midfield fouled Ecuador’s ball carriers a little too much in Match Day 2, and I expect a similar situation here.

Christ Inao Oulai 2+ Fouls Won is -180 and could be considered as a single bet. I am parlaying it with Chong 2+ Fouls won for a nice plus money play in a game where Curacao will be free of anxiety and that makes them a dangerous side.

The Play is a Parlay with Chong 2+ Fouls Won (-350) & Christ Inao Oulai 2+ Fouls Won (-180), final price +101 at FanDuel, line good to -120