Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: PARLAY Fluminense Total Over 1.5 (-285) & Montevideo City Double Chance (-335) final price -133

2-Team Parlay: Fluminense Total Over 1.5 (-285) & Montevideo City Double Chance (-335)
Odds at Time of Release: -133
Line Parameter: Line good to -145

Fluminense vs Bolivar
Copa Libertadores, Tuesday, 6pm ET

Bolivar have an atrocious record when playing on Brazilian soil, with just 1 win in 21 matches (W1 D1 L19) and a -53 goal difference, and that sole win was back in 2002. Fluminense have won all 4 home matches against Bolivian teams with a +12 goal difference, and winning by 2+ goals in 3 of 4.

Fluminense are not exactly in fine form right now, but they are coming off back to back wins at home, are unbeaten in L/4 and have been pretty strong at home this season (W12 D3 L2), losing only to arch rivals Flamengo and a very good Independiente Rivadavia. They've done poorly in the Copa Libertadores so far (W0 D2 L2) and are sitting at the bottom, but they can still qualify, if they beat Bolivar here. And preferably by 2+ goals, as they lost at Bolivar by 2-0, and H2H is the first tiebreaker. That means that even if Fluminense win by 1 goal, they would still be below Bolivar, as they lost on the road by 2-0.

Bolivar are always good at home, in the altitude of La Paz, but they disappear on the road, and Fluminense's home ground is a boiling cauldron, with 52,000 tickets having already been sold (the stadium hold 78,000).

Fluminense scored 2+ goals in each of L/4 at home, and in 5 of L/7, failing to do so in the two losses against arch rivals Flamengo and Independiente Rivadavia, who are having a tremendous season.

They need to win by at least 2 goals here, otherwise their qualification will be quite tough. They will shoot a lot, and might need to score at least two goals, because Bolivar have good quality up front and might find the net.

Take Fluminense Team Total Over 1.5 (-285) as the first leg of our parlay

Montevideo City vs Deportivo Riestra
Copa Sudamericana, Tuesday, 6pm ET

Montevideo City are leading the group with 9 points, Gremio have 7, Deportivo Riestra have 4 and Palestino have 2 points. That means that Montevideo City will qualify to the next round with a win or a draw here, but whether they will finish first (and skip a knockout round) or 2nd (will have to play an extra round of matches) is yet to be decided.

They are hosting Deportivo Riestra who have massive problems in scoring, especially on the road, where they haven't scored a single goal in L/7, and have scored just ONE goal in 9 on the road all season. It's not that they are unlucky, they are just bad in creating chances, and finishing them. This team finished the Apertura in Argentina with just 5 goals in 16 matches. And they've scored just 2 in 4 Copa Sudamericana matches, both at home, where they are slightly better.

Montevideo City lost in the reverse fixture by 2-1 on the road, but Riestra are better at home, and they actually had more xG and more shots in that match, and even a shot at the crossbar (albeit, Riestra also had a shot at the crossbar).

Riestra win-less on the road since September (D5 L7), Montevideo City with a W7 D1 L3 at home since February, losing twice to Nacional (whom they've beat just once in L/10) and Albion (against whom they've lost 5 of L/6).

Riestra are just terrible, especially on the road, they know that anything else than a win here probably means elimination, but they've proven that they are lacking offensive spark, can't create, can't score.

Montevideo City know that even a Draw here would be enough to see them through, but a win would really increase their chances of finishing at the top.

Take Montevideo City or Draw Double Chance (-335) as the second leg of our parlay

Take 3% on a 2-Team Parlay with Fluminense Team Total Over 1.5 (-285) & Montevideo City Double Chance (-335) final price -133 at Bovada, line good to -145