Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Both Teams to Score (-110)

Brazil vs Japan
World Cup, Monday, 1pm ET

Play: Both Teams to Score
Odds at Time of Release: -110
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Brazil do not have a very tight defense and they did concede 14 shots (5 on target) to Scotland, 7 shots (3 on target) vs Haiti and 14 shots (3 on target) vs Morocco in the group stage. They kept just 2 clean sheets in 8 friendlies, conceding even against Tunisia and (twice) to Panama, while their friendly vs Japan was a 3-2 loss despite taking a 2-0 lead.

Japan came back from two goals behind to beat Brazil by 3-2 in a friendly, pulled even twice vs the Netherlands in the group stage, and going back to the 2022 World Cup: they came back from one goal behind to beat GERMANY by 2-1 and SPAIN by 2-1 in the group stage. I know it's a small sample but Japan do not back down, they have a lethal offense that can cause problems even when they fall back.

After some consideration on this match, I think Both Teams to Score is the best play here. I know I gave 1H Under 1 on my Free Play video but that was two days ago. Did some reading and I do like Both Teams to Score.

Take Both Teams to Score (-110), line good to -125

World Cup Thank You Bonus: As a way to say thanks for buying my World Cup Package, you get 100% back, the full $149, toward my 1 Year Soccer Pass. That drops the price to $550 with code BB149. It covers the next 12 months and any soccer play, regardless of league or tournament, plus my 5% Soccer Best Bets. Added bonus: your 365 days do not start counting down until after the World Cup ends, so you get the rest of the tournament before the clock even starts.

THE PLAY: 1H Total Under 1.0 (103)

England vs DR Congo
World Cup, Wednesday, 12pm ET

Play: 1H Under 1 Goal
Odds at Time of Release: +103
Line Parameter: Line good to -115

England are -900 to qualify, DR Congo are +700, and I know England are a better team and a fan favourite, but if you're looking for VALUE, that +700 on DR Congo is the VALUE. It's gonna be hard, and it can only come if DR Congo revert to their ultra defensive mind-set.

As for Regulation, England are -350 favourites, the Draw at +460 and DR Congo are +1140 underdogs, with the Spread at 1.5 and the Total at 2.5

Excluding England's first half vs Croatia that had FOUR goals, they kept it tight in their next two matches, with ZERO goals vs Ghana and ZERO vs Panama. And that actually makes sense, as coach Tuchel is a very defensive-minded coach and I expect a tight first half here as well. Going back to their friendlies and looking at 1H Totals: 1 vs Costa Rica, 1 (late) vs New Zealand, 1 vs Japan, 0 vs Uruguay. Going further back to their World Cup Qualifiers in a group with Albania (0 and 1), Serbia (1 and 2), Latvia (1 and 3) and Andorra (1 and 0), but also further back to the Nations League vs Ireland (0 and 2), Greece (1 and 0) and Finland (1 and 0), we will see that in their only 4 of their last 17 competitive matches had 2 or more first half goals, 7 of 17 had zero goals and 6 of them had exactly 1 goal. So, tight. Basically just 23.5% of their competitive matches under coach Tuchel had 2 or more first half goals.

DR Congo are a tight team with not a ton of quality up front, their main attribute is the defense. 1H totals in the World Cup: 1 vs Uzbekistan, 0 vs Colombia, 2 vs Portugal. Friendlies: 0 vs Chile, 0 vs Denmark, 1 (late) vs Bermuda. Going back further to the AFCON: 1 vs Benin, 0 vs Senegal, 2 vs Botswana, 0 vs Algeria in the knockouts. Going back to the previous AFCON (under the same coach): 2 vs Zambia, 1 vs Morocco, 0 vs Tanzania, 2 vs Egypt (late PK), 2 vs Guinea, 0 vs Ivory Coast, 0 vs South Africa.

You get the picture. DR Congo cannot outgun England, they will try to keep it tight here for as long as possible and hope to maybe hit on the counter or even send the match to extra time/penalties and hope for the best.

The Play is 1H Under 1 (+103), line good to -105

Several ways to bet this game:

1H Under 1 (+103), I find it hard to see 2+ goals in 1H, Under 1 feels SAFE
1H Draw (+164), if DR Congo are to have a shot at this game, they need to keep it tight
England Win & Under 3.5 Goals (-125) England won 7 of 17 matches by the exact score of 2-0, which is +450

VALUE BETS (longshots, bigger odds, small stakes)

England win by 2-0 (+450)
HT/FT Draw/England (+300)
Draw (+460)