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THE PLAY: Texas A&M +2.5 (-105)

3% Texas A&M (3:00 ET): As discussed earlier this week on the Morning Wager, #8 Tennessee now has a clear path to the College Football Playoff. The Volunteers have only two losses on the season, both by just three points. The first was at home to Texas. The second was at South Carolina, a game the Vols actually led by 7 with less than two minutes to go in regulation. Last week may have been their most complete performance of the season, beating Kentucky 34-6 as 6-point favorites in Knoxville. But that final score was a little misleading in the sense that total yardage was 389-361. Tennessee benefited from a +3 turnover margin and two Kentucky fourth down failures. It was a 13-6 game going into the 4Q.

While spirits may be high in Knoxville right now, there’s been a lot of head-scratching in College Station. Texas A&M made the College Football Playoff last season. Now they are just 4-5 SU. I expected the Aggies to take a bit of a tumble down the SEC standings this season, but the degree to which they’ve fallen has surprised me. Remember, back on Sept 19th, A&M closed -16.5 at home vs. Kentucky! Last week’s 17-9 loss at South Carolina may have been the most brutal result of the season for HC Mike Elko. A&M (+7.5) was leading 9-7 in the 4Q, but gave up a field goal, then had the cover stolen when SC QB LaNorris Sellers ran for a 41-yard TD with 1:19 left. Total yardage was 457-360 in favor of A&M, who ended the game at the SC 10-yard line.

In fact, last week saw the Aggies become the first team in College Football HISTORY to put up 450+ yards of total offense, not turn the ball over and still not score a single touchdown. They’ve been playing this sport for a long time, folks! It was also the second straight road game where A&M blew a 4Q lead (led Alabama 20-17). It is telling that the 8th ranked team in the country is such a short favorite against an unranked team, isn’t it? We’ve seen a lot of Top 10 teams fall in the spot already this season. I’m banking on a very good A&M defense (#1 in the country in the red-zone) slowing down a Tennessee offense with a QB (George MacIntyre) making just his second career road start. The Vols’ passing attack ranks 127th in passing yards per game. They are also down a RB (Duane Morris) and their sack leader (Tyree Weathersby), not to mention injured along the O-line. Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed has struggled passing the ball, but don’t be surprised if he makes some plays with his legs here. While most think this line is too short, I do not! 3% Texas A&M (Play ML if favored)

THE PLAY: Illinois +10.0 (-110)

#4 UCLA is not only 9-0 SU, but also 9-0 ATS. It's the first time since Kansas in 2007 that we've seen a team open a season with nine consecutive covers. From a straight up perspective, the Bruins are one of only two unbeatens we have left (Utah being the other). They're one of only four teams (Georgia, Notre Dame and NEBRASKA) to have outgained every opponent this season (#5 in YPP margin) and have covered the spread by an average of 12.3 PPG.

But it's not like there hasn't been some good fortune going their way. Turnovers have been integral to UCLA's success. They are +14 in TO margin thanks to a FBS-best 27 takeaways. Last week's game at Minnesota is where many thought Bob Chesney's team would slip up. While it ended up being a 34-20 win, the key was back to back 75-yard TD throws from backup QB Ty Dieffenbach, who had just six completions for 158 yards the rest of the game.

I just think it's too many points that the Bruins are laying Friday night to an Illinois team that comes in riding a four-game win streak including upsets over Oregon and Nebraska. The Fighting Illini are a perfect 3-0 ATS catching points this season. While they're having to head to the West Coast for a late night kickoff, it's not like the Rose Bowl is known for being a raucous atmosphere. UCLA seems "due" for a close game. Take the points.