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THE PLAY: Hawaii -8.0 (-110)

Hawaii returns to Stan Sheriff Center with a chance to exploit a UT Arlington defense that showed major vulnerabilities in Friday’s 89-85 win over Portland. Both teams enter 2-0, but the early numbers favor Hawaii, which is averaging 95.0 points while allowing only 58.5, compared with UT Arlington at 89.0 points scored and 70.5 allowed. The strongest argument for laying the points is UT Arlington’s defensive performance against Portland. The Mavericks allowed Portland to shoot 52.7% from the field and 47.8% from three, surrendering 11 three-pointers on only 23 attempts. At the same time, UT Arlington committed 28 personal fouls, giving its opponent 27 free-throw attempts. That combination is difficult to overcome consistently. Allowing efficient perimeter shooting while repeatedly sending opponents to the line creates multiple paths to scoring, and Hawaii has enough offensive efficiency to capitalize.

Hawaii has also demonstrated that it can shoot efficiently at home. The Warriors converted 49.0% from the field and 36.4% from three in their 74-73 opener against Seattle, while Chance Trujillo scored 19 points on 6-of-11 shooting. Through two games, Hawaii has pushed its season averages to 52% from the floor, 95.0 points and 19.0 assists per game. While those numbers come from an extremely small sample and include a blowout of Bethesda, they support the broader point that Hawaii has enough scoring options to punish a defense that struggled badly against Portland. The Warriors also enter with a clear ability to disrupt defenses. Hawaii is averaging 10.5 steals per game and forcing 20 turnovers, with nine steals in its opener. That becomes important against an aggressive UT Arlington team because turnovers can create transition opportunities and allow Hawaii to generate scoring without consistently executing against a set half-court defense. UT Arlington deserves respect offensively. The Mavericks are averaging 89.0 points while shooting 48.2% from the floor and 38.3% from three, and they have produced 19 assists per game. They also possess a significant rebounding presence, averaging 47.0 boards through two contests.

Free throws could become another source of separation. UT Arlington has converted only 62.2% from the line through two games and went 16-of-25 against Portland. If this game reaches a situation where the Mavericks need to score efficiently from the stripe to stay within the number, that weakness becomes increasingly important. It also contrasts with an aggressive offensive approach that has led UT Arlington to commit 22 fouls per game, creating extra free-throw opportunities for the opposition. Home court further strengthens the position. Hawaii finished 16-3 at home last season, while UT Arlington went 8-8 on the road. More importantly for this matchup, the Mavericks are playing their second game in Honolulu after Friday’s four-point win over Portland. Hawaii remains in its familiar home environment, where its shooting and defensive pressure have already translated into two victories this season. The biggest concern is the size of the number, but Arlington’s defensive performance against Portland makes that offensive efficiency difficult to trust as a sustainable formula. Hawaii should have opportunities both from the perimeter and at the foul line, while its ability to force turnovers provides another path to creating the additional possessions needed to build a margin.

My technical database provides further support for Hawaii:

• Play On: Favorites coming off games in which they established a lead of at least 54 points, with an average defensive points-per-shot indicator above 1.55, are 117-77 ATS (60.3%) since 2014, generating +32.3 units and a +15.1% ROI;

• Play Against: Teams facing opponents coming off victories by more than 54 points, subject to the specified venue-streak condition, are 154-209 ATS (42.4%) since 2010. Their opponents have generated +39.6 units and a +9.9% ROI;

• Play On: High-scoring home teams averaging at least 84 points per game after holding their previous opponent to 63 points or fewer are 728-600 ATS (54.8%) since 2003, generating +68.0 units and a +4.7% ROI;

• Play On: Home favorites coming off victories by more than 30 points, with both teams averaging winning margins of at least eight points, are 360-293 ATS (55.1%) since 2002, generating +37.7 units and a +5.3% ROI;

• Play On: Teams coming off games in which they shot at least 48% on 77 or more field-goal attempts are 308-242 ATS (56.0%) since 2015, generating +41.8 units and a +6.9% ROI.

Hawaii's home-court advantage and ability to force turnovers make for a favorable matchup against a UT Arlington team that has surrendered plenty of scoring opportunities despite its undefeated start. The Mavericks' defensive fouling, inconsistent free-throw shooting, and vulnerability against efficient perimeter offenses create a pathway for the Warriors to control this contest. Lay the points with Hawaii as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Sunday, November 8.