5% UFC: BIG TICKET (69% since July!)

THE PLAY: Malcolm Wellmaker wins inside the distance (+105)

Not long ago Malcolm Wellmaker looked like one of the clearer rising names in the division. He was 10-0, with all three of his UFC wins coming by first round knockout. He was walking opponents down, landing clean and ending nights early. The trajectory felt straightforward, then two losses changed the conversation. Back-to-back defeats created real doubt about his skill set and about how high his ceiling actually sits. Even with that context, the profile is still clear. Wellmaker is an explosive power puncher who builds his game around boxing and pressure. He likes to force the action and looks most dangerous when he can set his feet and let his hands go. While Otari Tanzilovi is a different type of problem. He is decently well rounded and prefers to come forward. He throws big spinning attacks and often hides takedown attempts behind combinations. On paper there is a path for him. If he can turn the fight into a wrestling match and keep Wellmaker on the mat, the night gets complicated for the power puncher. Wellmaker has shown some recent vulnerability defending takedowns, so that route is not imaginary, but the quality of the opposition matters here. Wellmaker’s last two losses came against Ethyn Ewing and Juan Diaz. Ewing is a physical monster. Diaz looks like a solid fighter as well. Both can strike at a high-level that forces respect and both have shown they can time takedowns off of strikes. That combination is hard to deal with. Tanzilovi has not shown the same package. Otari did find takedowns in his last two fights, but those came against Shane Collins and Josias Musasa. Neither of those opponents carry anything close to Wellmaker’s power or explosiveness. Landing shots and mixing in wrestling against that lower level of opposition is not the same job as doing it against a finisher who can end the fight with one clean sequence. This fight is a sizable step down in competition for Wellmaker and a step up for Tanzilovi. On the feet the edge should belong to Wellmaker. He can press the action, lean on the power advantage and make Tanzilovi pay for coming forward. Spinning attacks and layered entries are useful tools, but they also create windows against a fighter who punches this hard. If the fight stays upright for long stretches, Wellmaker should be the one dictating. At slight plus money I like this spot with 8 of Wellmaker's 10 professional wins coming inside the distance.

Free Play:

Malcolm Wellmaker wins by knockout or submission (+105)