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THE PLAY: Kansas State -2.5 (-110)

We’ve been underwhelmed by much of the Big XII thus far, Houston among those, as the Cougs have looked irresistible this season only against FCS foe Southern U. Certainly not last week vs. UCF, which had the Cougars on the ropes until well into the third quarter when Scott Frost temporarily ran low on QBs and was forced to use third-stringer Kaleb Annett - who couldn’t get the ball downfield - after starter Keyone Jenkins was temporarily KO’d following his disastrous interception deep in his own territory got Houston back into the game. It’s going to take a better effort than last week or the previous Saturday at Georgia Southern (both spread losses for the Cougars) to deal with a more-dangerous K-State squad that has had a week to lick its wounds after blowing a second-half lead at Cincinnati. Now it’s back to the Little Apple, where new head coach Collin Klein won all three for the ‘Cats in September, and where veteran dual-threat QB Avery Johnson (better than 300 yards per game total offense thus far) is more likely to fly, or perhaps run, which he did to the tune of 152 rushing yards the last time KSU played at Manhattan on September 19 vs. Tulane. The Willie Fritz defense must also now deal with a foe that will seriously opt for the overland route as the Cats’ smashmouth infantry is gaining better than 6.4 yards per carry while ranking 13th nationally at 241 yards per game, and probably do it better than a somewhat-disappointing Texas Tech a couple of weeks ago in Lubbock. Let’s also see if Houston can stand up a bit better against another quality QB after facing only one of those (Oregon State’s Braden Atkinson, in his first start, tossing for 376 yards) and another pair of so-so pilots (Georgia Southern’s ageless Max Johnson and Texas Tech’s rather limited Will Hammond) who burned the Cougs for over 550 combined pass yards in recent weeks.
Play Kansas State

THE PLAY: Total Over 61.5 (-106)

Florida has won five of the last six meetings in this SEC matchup, with the last one being a 41-39 road win at South Carolina in October 2023. Gamecocks' head coach Shane Beamer can't afford another heart-breaker like that, and frankly, we're not sure how many more losses he can take under any circumstances if he wants to stay in Columbia. South Carolina is off to an 0-3 start (both straight-up and against the spread) in SEC play after last week's 35-34 loss to Kentucky. The Gamecocks jumped out to a 17-0 lead by the beginning of the second quarter, but the defense couldn't slow down Kentucky's offense after that. LaNorris Sellers ran for 147 yards in addition to his two touchdowns through the air. South Carolina's four games against FBS-level competition have all gone over the total. Florida is also licking its wounds after last week's 45-17 loss at Missouri. Just like the Gamecocks, all four of Florida's games against FBS-level competition have gone over the total. For the first time this season, the Gators' offense never got out of park. Jadan Baugh's Heisman campaign took a major hit after he was only able to generate 13 rushing yards on 12 attempts against the Tigers' defense. QB Aaron Philo failed to throw for 200 yards and he wasn't able to offer much on the ground, either. Even though Florida's offense struggled last week against Missouri, we see no reason to jump off the "over" train that each team is riding. The Gamecocks' defense was fired up and ready to go last week against Kentucky, forcing the Wildcats to punt on each of their first four possessions. As soon as Kentucky's offense started to make adjustments, South Carolina's defense had no answers. Big Blue scored on six of its last nine possessions. Beamer has floated the idea of benching Sellers, but after he produced 373 yards last week, the Gamecocks have bigger issues on the defensive side, not their veteran QB. Play the Over