5% MAXIMUM CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK • 91-57 (+106.2) RUN • LAST ONE WON BY MORE THAN 30!

THE PLAY: Troy -10.5 (-108)

Troy has won-and-covered each of the last five meetings, including a 28-18 upset win at Southern Miss last season as a 6.5-point road 'dog. The Trojans out-gained the Eagles by 124 yards in that contest as it became clear at that point of the season that former Southern Miss head coach Charles Huff (now at Memphis) had one foot out the door in Hattiesburg. Both teams are playing with equal rest. Southern Miss is still searching for its first win over an FBS-level opponent after dropping games to Auburn, UConn and Tulane. All four of Troy's games have stayed under the total this season, which is part of a 10-game "under" streak that extends back to Halloween of last year. We don't LOVE the idea of backing Troy to win by double-digits as a low-scoring, defensive-minded team, but we can only look in the Trojans' direction. That three-point win over Sam Houston in Week 1 looked a little shaky at the time, but the Bearkats are 4-0 against the spread this season (maybe 3-1 if you caught a low number against Texas Tech two weeks ago). Troy's 27-17 loss to Missouri also looks a little better at the moment considering what the Tigers did to Florida last week. On the flip side, Southern Miss' profile isn't holding up very well. The Eagles allowed 43 points against an Auburn team that failed to crack the 17-point mark against Baylor, Tennessee and Vanderbilt. A 28-point home loss to UConn certainly isn't holding up very well. QB Landry Lyddy was sacked four times in the Eagles' recent loss to Tulane. Southern Miss' best chance for success is to keep the clock running with successful plays on the ground, but that unit was only able to average 3.85 yards per carry against the Green Wave and the Eagles went 3-of-14 on third down. As long as Trojans' QB Goose Crowder takes care of the football, Troy should cruise to a double-digit win.