Oskeim Sports

THE PLAY: Oklahoma -41.5 (-115)

Oklahoma enters the 2026 season with legitimate College Football Playoff expectations after winning 10 regular-season games last year, and this opener provides an ideal opportunity to make an immediate statement. The Sooners return quarterback John Mateer along with leading receiver Isaiah Sategna III, giving offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle proven pieces in an offense that should be more comfortable in Year 2 of his system. Oklahoma improved from 86th to 19th nationally in offensive SP+ last season, and nearly the entire offensive line returns, providing continuity up front. The Sooners also added receiving talent through the portal, including Parker Livingstone and Trell Harris, giving Mateer even more weapons. Defensively, Brent Venables should once again field an imposing unit after Oklahoma finished fourth nationally in defensive SP+ last season, and the front seven looks particularly difficult for UTEP to handle. The Sooners return impact defenders such as David Stone, Jayden Jackson, Kip Lewis, Owen Heinecke, and Taylor Wein, and the trench matchup will be extremely one-sided from the outset.

UTEP enters the season with substantial personnel turnover, including many new starters, making this an incredibly difficult trip to Norman to start the 2026-27 season. The historical gap between these programs has been enormous: Oklahoma is 5-0 against UTEP, outscoring the Miners 248-41 in those meetings. Oklahoma has also won 20 consecutive home openers, and the unusual Friday-night atmosphere in Norman should provide another edge for a team that has won all six of its Friday-evening regular-season games. From a technical standpoint, large college football favorites are 20-0 SU and 17-3 ATS (85%) in season-openers versus FBS opponents, covering the spread by an average margin of 8.7 points per game since 2012. SEC teams are 67-17 SU and 50-31-3 ATS (61.7%) in season-openers versus non-conference opponents, while UTEP is 15-31 SU and 14-32 ATS (30.4%) versus non-conference foes since 2014, failing to cover the spread by an average of 3.8 points per game.

The Sooners have a massive step up in competition at Michigan the following week, so expect a focused performance designed to establish rhythm, build confidence and put UTEP away before turning their attention to Ann Arbor. Lay the points with the Oklahoma Sooners as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner on Friday, September 4.

THE PLAY: Hawaii +4.0 (-115)

Get the Rest of the Year for $799 — Save $696!
One payment locks in every sport, every 5% Best Bet, straight through December 31. CFB, NFL, NHL, NBA, College Basketball — all included. Pay once and save 47%.

Hawaii enters Saturday’s matchup with the continuity and experience advantages I want when backing a road underdog in a season opener. Timmy Chang is entering his fifth season, and the attached material notes that his slow rebuild took a significant step forward in 2025, improving from 5-7 to 9-4 with a bowl victory while climbing from 107th to 94th in SP+ and 68th overall. The Warriors are projected 84th in SP+ for 2026 with 7.3 average wins, giving them a solid statistical foundation entering the season. Hawaii also brings back quarterback Micah Alejado, who developed into a productive starter last season, along with running back Pofele Ashlock, giving Chang proven pieces in his offense. The offensive line returns three big, experienced seniors, another important advantage in an opener where continuity up front can determine whether an offense stays on schedule. The Warriors also return productive defensive pieces, including linebacker Jamih Otis, who is one of the Mountain West's better tacklers. Stanford, meanwhile, is essentially beginning another rebuild under new head coach Tavita Pritchard, with new coordinators on both sides of the ball and a new starting quarterback in Michigan transfer Davis Warren. That amount of change creates legitimate execution concerns in Week 0, particularly against an experienced Hawaii team that already knows exactly what it wants to do schematically.

Since the beginning of the 2021-22 season, college football teams with new defensive coordinators are 163-195 ATS (45.5%) in the first four weeks of the season versus opponents with returning defensive coordinators. Moreover, Power 4 home favorites of -30 or fewer are 17-29 ATS (37%) versus Group of 5 teams in Weeks 0 and 1 over the last three seasons. Hawaii also has a psychological edge after beating Stanford 23-20 last season, despite giving the Cardinal 10 early points and allowing Stanford to control possession for more than 36 minutes. Chang specifically emphasized avoiding another slow start, and the Warriors have even practiced on grass to prepare for Stanford's playing surface, showing attention to detail on this road assignment. With greater coaching continuity, an established quarterback, an experienced offensive foundation, and a Stanford program adjusting to wholesale changes, take the points with Hawaii as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, August 29.