Oskeim Sports

THE PLAY: Tennessee +7.5 (-104)

Michigan possesses an explosive offense ranked 11th in the nation in PPG (87.5), 6th in FG% (51.1%), and 48th in 3PT% (36.9). The Wolverines enter off back-to-back SU and ATS wins over St. Louis (95-72) and Alabama (90-77), but teams averaging greater than 85.4 points per game coming off two or more consecutive ATS wins are just 170-236-9 ATS (41.9%), provided they have a Pace of at least 68.4. This situation has been 107-176-5 ATS (37.8%) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season. The Wolverines’ attack ranks 32nd in the country in Pace (71.5), which is also significant because fast-paced teams like Michigan are 126-164-8 ATS (43.4%) in the NCAA tournament, including 64-87 ATS (42.4%) since 2020. Conversely, Tennessee plays at a more methodical tempo, ranking 229th in Pace (67.2), and historically, slower-paced teams have had more success in the NCAA tournament from a point-spread perspective. Specifically, fast-paced NCAA tournament teams like Michigan are 94-132-4 ATS (41.6%) versus slow-paced teams like the Volunteers, including 47-70 ATS (40.2%) since 2019. Since 2001, #1-#3 seeds in the Elite Eight have struggled against lower-seeded opponents, going 8-21-2 ATS (27.6%). Finally, from the Round of 32 forward, Big Ten Conference schools are just 27-42 SU and 28-39-2 ATS (41.6%) since 2017. Grab the inflated number with the Tennessee Volunteers as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, March 29.

THE PLAY: Phoenix Suns -16.5 (-110)

Utah arrives in Phoenix off a 135-129 loss to the Nuggets, and large NBA underdogs coming off a loss are 90-139-1 ATS (39.3%) versus .712 or worse opponents, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of 2.9 points per game. Phoenix enters this contest off a 125-123 loss to the Nuggets, which is relevant because the Jazz apply to a negative 21-56 ATS (27.3%) NBA system of mine that dates to 1989 and invests against large underdogs of +15 or greater versus opponents coming off one or more consecutive losses, falling short of market expectations by an average margin of 5.4 points per game. Utah is 38-36 ATS this season, while the Suns have posted a 43-27-3 ATS mark, which is significant because NBA home teams with a 60% or better ATS record are 445-354-8 ATS (55.7%) versus opponents with a 60% or worse ATS record, including 249-185-2 ATS (57.4%) since the beginning of the 2023-24 season. Phoenix falls into a very good 149-89-2 ATS (62.6%) system that invests on certain large NBA favorites with an average point spread of less than -1.91. This situation is 100-50-1 ATS (66.7%) since the beginning of the 2018-19 season, covering the spread by an average of +4.2 points per game. Finally, covering a spread this large is challenging, but it's worth mentioning that favorites with lines greater than -17 have covered the spread 49 times out of 87 games (56.3%) after the All-Star break. Lay the number with the Phoenix Suns as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, March 28.

THE PLAY: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-112)

Since 2006, MLB favorites of -201 or greater are 2709-1030 (72.5%; +2.2% ROI) and 2010-1522 RL (+2.7% ROI) in games with totals of eight or more runs, including 1833-646 (73.9%; +3.7% ROI) and 1444-1036 RL (+2.9% ROI) since 2016, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Meanwhile, Arizona falls into very negative 2975-5274 (36.1%; -4.1% ROI), 2542-4537 (35.9%; -4.4 ROI), and 912-2225 (29.1%; -10.6% ROI) systems of mine that date to 2002 and invest against certain moderate to large road underdogs. The latter situation has lost by an average margin of 1.8 runs per game and is 1276-1478 RL (-6.4% ROI) since 2004. Since 2006, MLB favorites coming off a win in which they used seven or more pitchers are 678-416 (62%; +3.4% ROI), including 387-230 (62.7%; +3.6% ROI) since 2017. The Dodgers are 50-2 (96.2%; +33.8% ROI) and 38-12 RL (76%; +37.9% ROI) as large favorites in the final game of a series, winning by an average margin of +3.7 runs per game since 2003. Finally, the Dodgers are 40-3 (93%; +32.1% ROI) and 29-13 RL (69%; +32.3% ROI) in the final game of a series following a one-run win, winning by an average of +2.7 runs per game. Take the Los Angeles Dodgers as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, March 28.

THE PLAY: Purdue +6.5 (-110)

Purdue has won seven straight games, which is significant because NCAA Tournament underdogs coming off four or more consecutive wins are 28-8-1 ATS (77.8%) in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Round, covering by an average margin of +4.7 points per game. Arizona ranks 44th in college basketball for pace with 71.1 possessions per 40 minutes, but fast-paced teams like the Wildcats are 125-163-8 ATS (43.4%) in the NCAA tournament, including 63-86 ATS (42.3%) since 2020. In contrast, Purdue plays at a much more methodical pace, ranking 321st in pace (65.3). Historically, the slower-paced teams have controlled the tempo and had more success in the NCAA tournament from a point spread perspective. Specifically, fast-paced NCAA tournament teams like Arizona are 94-132-4 ATS (41.6%) versus slow-paced teams like the Boilermakers, including 47-70 ATS (40.2%) since 2019. Behind an offense ranked 23rd in the nation in points per game (86.7), the Wildcats have covered the spread in four straight games. Based on its recent point spread success, Arizona falls into a negative 170-236-9 ATS (41.9%) college basketball system that dates to 2014 and invests against certain teams with potent offenses entering off two or more consecutive ATS wins. This situation is 107-176-5 ATS (37.8%) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season. Finally, Arizona is just 8-13-1 ATS (38.1%) in the NCAA Tournament since 2014, including 4-8 SU and 3-7 ATS (30%) from the Sweet 16 Round forward, falling short of market expectations by an average margin of 3.8 points per game. Grab the inflated number with the Purdue Boilermakers as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, March 28.