Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Total Over 2.25 (-112)

Jamaica vs Guatemala
Gold Cup, Monday, 10pm ET

Play: Over 2.25 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -112
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Jamaica are -110 favourites, the Draw is at +235, and Guatemala are +325 underdogs, with the Asian Spread set at 0.5 and the Asian Total set at 2.25

Panama are the big favourites to win the group at -115, Jamaica right behind them at +100, Guatemala are 3rd with +1400 and Guadeloupe are the big underdogs at +4000.

Guatemala used to be an Unders team up until a couple of years ago, with a crushing majority of their matches finishing with a maximum of 2 goals as they mainly used a backline of 5 in a 5-4-1 formation, or a 3-5-2 with the wingbacks falling back to the defense. However, that changed back in November of 2021 when they hired Mexican coach Luis Fernando Tena who has a thick resume of coaching Mexican clubs, and they've changed their profile. Religiously using a 4-2-3-1 formation which has produced a lot of goals in their matches. 

In fact, since the change, Guatemala have played 46 matches in all competitions, with 20 of 46 finishing with Over 2.5 Goals, 14 of 46 finishing with exactly 2 goals and 12 of 46 finishing with zero or 1 goals.

Isolating the competitive matches (24 matches): 13 of 24 had Over 2.5 Goals, 7 of 24 had exactly 2 goals and just 4 of 24 had zero or 1 goals, so that means that they've left behind that ultra defensive mindset.

Judging by how the two teams have played lately, I see at least a couple of goals here, but the Asian Total is tricky at 2.25.

That means that if we take the Over 2.25 Goals and there are exactly 2 goals, we get half a push and half a loss. If we pick the Under 2.25 Goals and there are exactly 2 goals, we get half a win and half a push. However, I think there is a better chance of seeing 3+ goals than seeing zero or 1 goals, so leaning to the Over 2.25 Goals (-110) here. 

Lean to the Over 2.25 Goals (-112), line good to -125

THE PLAY: REGULATION Total Over 2.5 (-110)

Panama vs Guadeloupe
Gold Cup, Monday, 7pm ET

Play: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -110
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Panama are -375 favourites, the Draw is at +460 and Guadeloupe are +925 underdogs here, with the Asian Spread set at -1.5 and the Asian Total set at 2.5 Goals. 

Panama are the big favourites to win the group at -115, Jamaica right behind them at +100, Guatemala are 3rd with +1400 and Guadeloupe are the big underdogs at +4000.

Fun fact, Guadeloupe reached the semi-finals in 2007 and the quarter-finals in 2009, having played in 3 more Gold Cups since the but getting eliminated in the group stage in all 3. 

Panama have lowkey been very successful in the Gold Cup in recent years, made it to the quarter-finals in 9 of L/10 Gold Cups, to the semi-finals in 5 of L/10 editions and made it to the final three times, most recently in 2023. 

Both teams have coaches that guided them in the 2023 and the 2021 editions of the Gold Cup. 

Panama's results in 2023: W2 D1 L0 in the group stage (3-0 to the Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals), beat Qatar 4-0 in the quarter-finals, beat USA in the semis and lost to Mexico in the final. 

In 2021: W1 D1 L1 in the group stage (3-0 to the Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals), didn't make it out of the group. 

Guadeloupe's results in 2023: W1 D1 L1 in the group stage (3-0 to the Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals), also 3-0 to the Over 3.5 Goals 

In 2021: W0 D0 L3 in the group stage, 3-0 to the Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals.

Take 3% on the Over 2.5 Goals (-110)

THE PLAY: REGULATION Over 5 Cards (+111)

Boca Juniors vs Benfica
Club World Cup, Monday, 6pm ET

Play: Over 5 Cards
Odds at Time of Release: +111 (Pinnacle)
Line Parameter: Line good to -115

Benfica are -140 favourites here, the Draw is at +290 and Boca Juniors are +340 underdogs, with the Asian Spread set at 0.75 and the Asian Total at 2.5 Goals. 

Bayern are the big favourites to win the group at -200, Benfica are the 2nd favourites at +300, Boca Juniors are at +450 and Auckland City are at +10000

To Qualify from the group, Bayern are -900, Benfica are -190, Boca Juniors are at -115 and Auckland City at +3000

Fire a side bet, I think the odds don’t do justice to Boca Juniors, +340 is a pretty big price, and so is that +290 of the Draw. I find no value in that -140 for Benfica, I think those odds don’t really reflect the danger of the situation here. 

Just 5 losses in 21 matches in all competitions for Boca Juniors, with just 2 of those losses coming by 2+ goals, and in one of them they had a chance to narrow that deficit but Cavani missed a penalty kick. Generally hard to beat, let alone by 2+ goals. 

On the other hand, Benfica don’t usually beat teams by 2+ goals, unless it’s teams from the bottom half of their domestic league where the gap in quality is pretty big. Or unless it’s Porto, whom they humiliated on quite a few occasions this season. Benfica can certainly win this, but it won’t be easy against a tight Boca Juniors side. 

That being said, leaning Boca Juniors +0.75 here, which is a split line between Boca Juniors +1 and Boca Juniors +0.5. This means that we get a full payout if Boca win or Draw, we lose half our bet (and the other half is returned) if Boca lose by exactly 1 goal, and we lose the entire stake if Boca lose by 2+ goals. 

For Totals we are leading Under 2.5 Goals, although this is a tricky line and the match could go anywhere. Boca Juniors are 13-7 to the Under 2.5 goals this season, and they tend to play pretty tightly against the good teams, so I’d be surprised to see them open up and allowing a lot of goals. 

On the other hand, Benfica’s matches can really go anywhere in terms of totals, although they do have a tendency for high-scoring matches, who can forget the Champions League earlier in the season where they scored FOUR goals against Barcelona but managed to lose the game 5-4? They tend to be an Overs team, but all 5 of their matches against Sporting Lisbon for example, finished under the total.

Totals are tricky here, I am leaning Under 2.5 but be careful on this one. 

For Props, I like cards here, and a lot of them. 

These are two teams that are very aggressive and I expect a lot of fouls and maybe a lot of cards as well. We don’t know what directive FIFA have given to the referees, and whether they will allow a lot of physical challenges or will they card a lot, but based on the two teams’ profiles, this should have cards and a lot of them, based on the style of play, as well as the temperament of individual players in each squad. 

Referee Ramos has an average of 5.06 cards/match in 29 matches this season, with 14 red cards, roughly 1 red card every 2 matches. Also 13 Penalty Kicks in 29 matches.

Last season he had an average of 4.47 cards/match with 17 red cards in 47 matches. Also 14 Penalty Kicks in 47 matches. 

The season before that, average of 5.53 cards/match with 19 red cards in 43 matches. Also 17 Penalty Kicks in 43 matches. 

Lifetime average of 5.00 cards/match, with 202 red cards in 512 matches, roughly 1 every 2.5 matches, and 142 penalty kicks , roughly 1 every 3 matches. 

Penalty Kick Awarded is +200 at FanDuel

Red Card Awarded is +380 at FanDuel

Over 5 Cards is +111 at Pinnacle, if Asian Line is not available, take the Over 5.5 Cards or lay the juice on the Over 4.5 Cards

Boca Juniors received an average of 3.125 cards/match this season, and opponents of Boca received an average of 2.95 cards/match. 

Opponents of Benfica received an average of 3.47 cards/match this season.

Take 3% on the Over 5 Cards (+111), line good to -115

THE PLAY: REGULATION Flamengo win & Under 3.5 Goals (-105)

Flamengo vs Esperance Tunis
Club World Cup, Monday, 9pm ET

Flamengo are -260 favourites, the Draw is at +382 and Esperance are +768 underdogs, with the Asian Spread set at 1.25 and the Asian Total set at 2.5 Goals

Chelsea are the big favourites to win the group at -200, Flamengo are 2nd favourites at +250, LAFC are at +550 and Esperance Tunis are at +4000. 

To Qualify from this group, Chelsea are -900, Flamengo at -250, LAFC at +130 and Esperance at +1000

Flamengo are playing extremely good soccer this season, currently sitting at the top of the VERY competitive Brazilian league with a W7 D3 L1 record, featuring the best offense with 24 goals and the best defense with 4 conceded in 11 matches. They’ve kept 6 clean sheets in L/7 and in 13 of 19 competitive matches since March. Very good defense, and offensively they usually score between 1-2 goals, with some very few exceptions to this rule. 

Esperance also finished top of their domestic Tunisian league with the best offense (57 goals) and the 3rd best defense with 22 conceded in 30 matches. They won the title, won the domestic Super Cup back n February and also won the cup a couple of weeks ago, so they are coming off a full (and highly successful) season, where they also made it to the African Champions League quarter-finals.

I think Flamengo win this one but I am not sure if they can cover the -1.25 Spread that he books gave them. Esperance are a decent squad, coming off a huge season, both in terms of length but also in terms of success (won the domestic treble), and maybe they pose a risk here. 

Both teams have pretty good defenses so maybe this match doesn’t turn into a goal-fest, so the Under 2.5 could be an option here. With that in mind, I want to discuss some Draftkings lines that make no sense and this book is practically deceiving you. 

Flamengo win to nil is -120 in their Game Parlays tab, but if you create your own same game parlay by picking Flamengo to win & Both Teams to Score – NO, the odds are +100, that’s 20 cents better! 

By the same token, Flamengo win & Under 3.5 Goals is -125 in the Game Parlays tab, but if you make your own same game parlay by picking Flamengo ML and the Under 3.5 Goals, the odds are -105, that’s 20 cents better. 

I keep shouting this from the rooftops, books are out to deceive the unsuspecting bettor with tricks like this, but worry not, because I am here to help you. 

Take 3% on a Same Game Parlay with Flamengo ML & Under 3.5 Goals (-105), line good to -125