Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Washington Mystics -4.5 (-110)

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Analysis: 

After giving up 89 points in a blowout loss, the Mystics will be motivated to reassert their defensive identity—allowing just 47.2% eFG to opponents this season (5th best in the league). Meanwhile, the Sky’s lone recent victory came against the league’s worst defense, and they lack a true floor general with Courtney Vandersloot sidelined. Chicago turns the ball over at the highest rate in the WNBA, and even if Washington doesn’t force every giveaway, the Sky’s own miscues will erode any offensive rhythm.

On the boards, Chicago ranks first in the league in offensive rebound rate and 3rd in generating second-chance points, but Washington counters by ranking in the league’s top five for both offensive and defensive rebounding. Limiting extra possessions will be crucial—without those putbacks, the Sky’s interior-centric attack (1st in paint attempts) will stall against a Mystics frontcourt rotation of Kiki Iriafen, Stefanie Dolson, Shakira Austin, Aaliyah Edwards, and Emily Engstler. 

Finally, Washington’s ability to attack the rim and draw fouls will compound Chicago’s struggles. The Mystics lead the league in free-throw rate, powered by Brittney Sykes’s downhill drives, while the Sky sit dead last in above-the-break three-point efficiency. If Washington grabs an early lead and heads to the line consistently, Chicago will have few offensive counterpunches. Combine a superior defense, strong rebounding, and free-throw prowess, and the Mystics should not only win but cover the 4.5-point spread.