Rob Veno

THE PLAY: Oklahoma City Thunder Total Over 120.0 (-105)

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(503) Indiana Pacers at (504) Oklahoma City Thunder   (Game Analysis Below)

Play Rating: FREE

Play Type: Full Game Team Total

Play: Oklahoma City Thunder Total Over 120.0 (-105)

Date/Time: Jun 8, 2025 8:30 PM 

Line Provider: Consensus Line

Indiana @ Oklahoma City

Scheduling - Three Days Off Between Games

Plenty of time for Oklahoma City to get their frustration out & regroup BUT…

Also plenty of time for Indiana to take a breather after miraculous comeback

Motivation On Each Side

For the Thunder it’s obvious…they have to even this series at 1-1 before going to Indiana for Game #3 

For the Pacers there’s strong motivation to not be satisfied leaving for home with a 1-1 split…Up 2-0 heading home for Game #3 would be a huge advantage

Indiana has been money in Game #2 through these Playoffs…They are 3-0 su & ats after winning Game 1

Won & covered at home as -4 favs vs. Milwaukee 123-115

Won & covered as +5.5 underdogs @ Cleveland 120-119

 Won & covered as +6 underdogs @ New York 114-109

OKC has also been money in Game #2 through these Playoffs…All 3 wins were at Home by 15+

Opening Round as -14.5 favorites vs Memphis = Win & cover 118-99

Conference Semifinals as -10 vs Denver = Blowout win 149-106 

Conference Finals as -8 vs Minnesota = 118-103 

The Denver result is the best situational comp for this game 2 because…

The Nuggets had come from behind and stolen Game #1 in Oklahoma City 121-119 on a last second Aaron Gordon 3 pointer

Thunder destroyed them by 43 in the next game

Closer Look At Game #1

Hard to imagine watching it how this game ended up being won by Indiana BUT…

Three key statistical categories offset the Thunder pressure & swarming style defense

A) The Pacers crushed Oklahoma City on the boards 56-39

B) Indiana made 18 threes and outscored OKC by 21 from beyond the arc

C) Thunder had an amazing 98 FG attempts but shot just 39.8% which kept Indiana from being blown out

Pair of those are correctible…Thunder can level off that rebound margin

Throughout the Playoffs these teams sit #11 & #12 in rebounding separated by 0.4%...there’s no way OKC should be -17 on the glass 

Thunder can shoot better…They’ve shot 46% overall this post season

In their favor Thursday night…Oklahoma City forced 24 turnovers and committed just 6 (+18) AND they had 14 steals to Indiana’s 1 

Final Look 

Oklahoma City could very well and probably should win this game BUT… 

There just does not seem to be enough ammo there to go ahead and give Indiana 11 points 

Each has reasons to bet them full game but there are enough counter arguments not too 

Could shorten it up and play OKC 1Q or 1H but oddsmaker is already there with sizeable prices of -4 & -8 

The one thing I can see here is pace & continued scoring opportunities for the Thunder 

98 shot opportunities, 24 forced turnover & 14 steals are crazy numbers that could be somewhere in the vicinity again   

OKC got to 110 shooting terribly and figure they increase that percentage up to 44% here and get to 120+ 

PLAY: Oklahoma City Team Total OVER 120