Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Union Espanola -0.25 (-115)

Union Espanola vs Limache
Chile, Tuesday, 3pm ET

Play: Union Espanola -0.25
Odds at Time of Release: -115
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Union Espanola, who are one of the biggest teams in Chile, are not having a good season so far, barely finished 3rd (and were eliminated) in their Copa Sudamericana group, and they have also done poorly in their domestic league, currently sitting 2nd to last (#15) with 6 points, 5 points below the relegation zone but with 2 matches in hand.

Mind you, this is a team that has remained in the Chilean top division for 91 consecutive seasons (behind only Colo Colo who have 94), so this is one of the most iconic teams in Chile, and also one of the top-4 fan bases.

Despite their struggles and the 6 points in 11 matches, their underlying numbers paint a different picture, as they have 6 actual points but 15 Expected Points, a huge gap there, which is actually the biggest gap between Points and Expected Points in this league. Underlying stats suggest that they should have gotten way more points (9) than their actual points.

And, more importantly, they are under the new manager bounce, as they sacked their manager two games ago, and results were really encouraging under the interim manager, as they beat GV San Jose by 4-0 in their last match. They did sign a new coach, but the interim manager will be on the bench for this match.

Limache were recently promoted from the 2nd division and are doing a mediocre job so far, sitting 13th with 11 points (W3 D2 L7), and they too have a big gap in Points vs Expected Points, especially on the road where they have just 1 point but 7 Expected Points. They are playing with the absence of danger, with the majority of their matches producing Both Teams to Score.

Union Espanola are looking to jump-start their season and, at the very least, avoid relegation. They need to beat teams that are direct competitors in the relegation battle, and the newly-promoted Limache is not giving away any favours, but Espanola are under the new manager bounce, playing at home and, again, they are one of the big-4 in Chile and they almost always beat newly-promoted sides at home.

Take 2% on Union Espanola -0.25 (-115), line good to -125, that's a split line between Union Espanola -0.5 and Union Espanola PK, which means that we get a full win if Union Espanola win, and half our stake is returned if it's a Draw (we lose all our stake if they lose).