Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Central Cordoba SdE -0.25 (-115)

Deportivo Tachira vs Central Cordoba
Copa Libertadores, Tuesday, 6pm ET

Play: Central Cordoba -0.25
Odds at Time of Release: -115
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Match Day 5 of the Copa Libertadores, with bottom-feeders Deportivo Tachira playing host to Central Cordoba. LDU Quito are 1st in the group with 8 point and a +3 goal difference, Central Cordoba are 2nd also with 8 points and a +2 goal difference, Flamengo are 3rd with 5 points and a 0 goal difference, and Deportivo Tachira are 4th with 0 points and a -5 goal difference.

Reminder that the two top seeds will move on to the Copa Libertadores Round of 16, the 3rd seed will go to the Copa Sudamericana Round of 32 and the 4th seed will be eliminated.

Deportivo Tachira with zero points, they only have a few (and VERY slim) chances for the 3rd spot, but in order for that to happen they need to win both remaining matches (home vs Central Cordoba and away at Flamengo), while Flamengo need to lose both remaining matches, AND the goal difference to be covered. That's almost impossible to happen, and Deportivo Tachira haven't really showed that they can pull off something like this. A Deportivo Tachira side that are in the playoff group of their domestic league, sitting 1st with 6 points and, with two more matches to go, they are hosting the team behind them on the weekend. The top seed goes to the Apertura Finals, so Deportivo Tachira's entire focus is on that upcoming match. I wouldn't be surprised if we learned that they left all starters out of this Copa Libertadores match.

Central Cordoba are kind of in the opposite side of things. Eliminated from their domestic playoffs, which means NO league match on the weekend to look forward to, so their entire focus is on the Copa Libertadores. they are currently sitting 2nd and their last match is a very tricky one, against LDU Quito in the altitudes of Quito, where there is no guarantee that they will even get any points. The easiest path to the knockouts is to beat Deportivo Tachira on Tuesday, while LDU Quito and Flamengo devour each other in the other match of the group.

To be honest, maybe even a Draw here wouldn't necessarily be a bad result for Central Cordoba, but they will most likely need some points from their last match, away at Quito, in order to secure the top-2. However, away matches in Quito are always extremely hard because of the altitude, so Central Cordoba will go all-in for a win here. 

We are very tempted by that +120 on Central ML but we also like the protection of a half push if this ends in a Draw, so we ride with the Asian Spread here. 

Take 3% on Central Cordoba -0.25 (-115), line good to -125