Bryan Power
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Last updated Sep 16, 7:17 AM EDT
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Free Picks
THE PLAY: Detroit Lions Total Under 24.5 (-119)
Historically speaking, it's not a good spot that the Lions find themselves in Thursday night heading to Buffalo, to face a Bills team that's breaking in a new stadium. The Lions survived a missed 2-point conversion to beat the Saints, 31-30, in overtime in Week 1. Teams coming off an OT game and playing on a short week have covered at a paltry 26% rate all-time. It certainly doesn't help the Lions' cause that they basically went a full OT vs. the Saints.
Looking at the total for tonight's game, this will be just the 10th time since 2012 that both teams are on short rest and the O/U is above 54 points. The previous nine instances have seen the Under go a perfect 9-0!
So given what history tells us about the situation the Lions are in, not to mention the total, it then makes sense to bet Detroit Under its team total. QB Goff is always less effective outdoors. The Lions were -100 in total yards last week vs. the Saints. I have no desire to fade a Bills' offense that just put up nearly eight yards per play on the highly regarded Texans' stop unit. But if this TNF matchup does in fact stay Under, it will likely be because the Lions didn't get to their team total.
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Consultant Bio
After spending the previous decade at Covers Experts, Bryan Power has wasted little time establishing himself here at WagerTalk. A consistent winner since first emerging on the scene back in 2011, Power didn't have a single losing calendar year in his first decade as a pro handicapper! In April & May of this year (2022), he went on an amazing 154-99-2 (+$41,322) with all plays! October is when he truly made his mark at WT, at one point cashing 22 of 26 plays (85%).
Power handicaps football (both NFL and college), basketball (NBA and college), MLB, Soccer (most major European leagues), and the UFC. He uses a personal set of power ratings, combined with situational handicapping, to make his selections. Multiple bets per day across multiple sports are the norm. Client plays are rated 3%-5%.
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