Kyle Anthony

THE PLAY: Michael Johnson +136

In my opinion, the wrong guy is favored here. Now both these fighters were struggling but recently turned it around. Alexander Hernandez was on a 1-4 run, now currently on a 4 fight winning streak after changing divisions. Long time UFC vet Michael Johnson was on a 1-5 run, but having a career resurgence going 4-1. Over Alexander's winning streak he's truly had favorable matchup's for his style. Aging out fighters who have grappling and limited striking ability. Perfect for Hernandez who can wrestle defensively and out land his opponents on the feet. Having the striking advantage in each fight opened opportunities to work at range. While Michael Johnson presents a problematic style for Hernandez even in the late stages of his career. Reason being, I'm not seeing a decline in MJ's skill set. In his most recent fight he faced a young rising talent in Daniel Zellhuber who's a sharp rangy striker. Impressively, Johnson out landed Zellhuber 80-52 including a knockdown winning on the judges scorecards as a +600 underdog. Going back rewatching that fight, MJ still had all the tools that made him dangerous earlier in his career. A tricky south paw with fast hands, solid boxing and good footwork. I believe his striking is going to overwhelm Hernandez on Saturday night. The speed at which MJ's combinations develop is much faster than Hernandez who can slow down as the fight goes on. If this fight plays out on the feet... I expect Johnson to land the more damaging impactful shots over 3 rounds. In order for Alexander to find any success he'll need to mix in some wrestling, which hasn't been in his arsenal. Over his last 7 UFC fights he's only secured 4 takedowns and all were against a 38 year old Kurt Holobaugh who has a poor 37% takedown defense. A strength of Johnson is his ability to 'sprawl & brawl', defend the takedowns and land big counters. Currently Johnson supports a strong 81% takedown defense rate, so I don't see Hernandez getting him down or keeping him down. Fight should mostly playout on the feet and that's exactly where Johnson does his best work. Will win with hand speed in pocket exchanges while Hernandez is known wilt. When fights are going his way, he's confident when the gameplan is working. When faced with adversity he can begin questioning himself seeking an exit. It's been an issue throughout his career and at a sizeable favorite price tag he's hard to trust. Give me Michael Johnson to out box him at range and cashing us this plus money ticket!

Free Play: Michael Johnson +136