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The Gold Sheet

The Gold Sheet

(967) New York Yankees at (968) Minnesota Twins

Event:
(967) New York Yankees at (968) Minnesota Twins
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
May 14, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
103
Play:
3% – Minnesota Twins +103 C Paddack (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

Carlos Rodón is posting good, solid numbers for New York, but they are a far cry from the pitcher that the Yankees thought they were signing before the start of last year. After posting a 41.8-percent hard-hit rate last year (which was the highest of his career), that number is up to 44.4-percent this year. His 91.6 mile per hour exit velocity last season was one of the worst in baseball, and he's in the bottom-15th percentile in that category again this year. Entering 2023, Rodon never posted a season with a barrel rate higher than 8.0-percent. Last year his barrel rate was 12.2-percent and it's sitting at 10.5-percent this year. After posting a 34.6-percent strikeout rate in 2021 and a 33.4-percent strikeout rate in 2022, that number is down to 23.1-percent this year. He is a fine starting pitcher, but one that we don't believe should be a road favorite in this spot. Over the Twins' last 14 games, they have a low 16.2-percent strikeout rate against left-hand pitching. Chris Paddack is enjoying a strong season in Minnesota, and more importantly, he's probably got the league's best bullpen behind him. Paddack is 3-0 at home this season with a 1.17 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. In four starts at home, Paddack has recorded 31 strikeouts with four walks. Since his return from the IL, Twins' closer Jhoan Duran has allowed a total of two hits with one walk in 7.0 scoreless innings. The Twins are 17-3 in their last 20 games. We will gladly back them at home on Tuesday night at an underdog price against the Yankees.

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