Week 12 NFL Recap – Week 13 Betting Preview

NFL Betting Recap For Week 11

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his NFL Week 12 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 13 of NFL kicking off on Thursday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!

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NFL Betting Recap For Week 12

Part one of this article will take a look at some of the news and notes from around the NFL. Part two will take a closer look at several teams from the AFC in a section I will call, contender or pretender.

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NFL Week 12 Recap

“Blessed” with poor QB play, the Jets nevertheless dropped back to pass the ball 45 times last Sunday. The final ledger read 38 pass attempts, with seven drop backs resulting in a QB sack. The Jets ran the ball just ten times.

I expect this to change on December 3rd vs. Atlanta. Do not be surprised if Breece Hall and company carry the ball at least 30 times. Adjust your player proposition decisions accordingly.

Many people reacted negatively to the news that the Indianapolis Colts cut LB Shaquille Leonard on November 21st. The Colts are not the most dominant defensive team, but they do have 36 defensive sacks, which translates to about 55 for the entire season.

In the believe it or not column, the Colts could be favored in all six of their remaining games. At the very least, the Colts will have a win shot the rest of the way, meaning making the playoffs is well within reach. More on that news in part two, but suffice to say that Indy believes the young players on defense can carry the load.

The good news for New Orleans is that they have the #2 pass D%, allowing just under 59%. The bad news is that they have just 18 defensive sacks, one more than the last place Chicago Bears have. This is an unusual combination, as teams with solid pass defenses usually get to opposing QB’s more often.

The NYG are winners of two in a row but both wins were underserved. They had a +6 turnover ratio in the win at Washington, and last week, they had a +3 turnover ratio vs. New England. The Patriots committed numerous mistakes in NYG territory and missed a short, game tying field goal. Tommy DeVito was sacked 15 times in the two wins.

Do not buy into the hype that the Giants are turning the corner. They are on pace to be sacked a total of 98 times. There is a bit of good news however, as that would not be the record. Believe it or not, the Philadelphia Eagles endured 104 sacks on their QB’s in 1986. Thankfully, the Giants are off this weekend.

Winning the turnover battle can be directly correlated with winning football games. The Denver Broncos are the latest example of this. At 1-5, Denver had a -5 turnover ratio. Denver is now 6-5, and look at the ratio now. It stands at +8, meaning they won the turnover battle by 13 in the five-game win streak. I’ll examine their playoff chances below.

AFC Contender or Pretender Heading Into Week 13

All AFC teams have played at least eleven games. We’re pretty much done with two-thirds of the season, and a large number of teams are scrambling to make the playoffs.

Below, I will look at many of the teams bunched up with a shot at the playoffs and give my analysis as to whether or not they are true playoff contenders.

NOTE: There’s no need to look at Baltimore, Jacksonville, KC and Miami, as it’s easy to see that they are contenders and not pretenders.

Conversely, I will not be looking at New England or the Jets, and will also eliminate Cincinnati from this discussion as they are just 5-6, and 0-4 in divisional play. This section will go in alphabetical order.

Buffalo Bills (6-6) CONTENDER

Buffalo has a playoff caliber roster, and that alone makes them a threat to win every remaining game on their schedule. Defensive injuries have certainly contributed to their surprising record to this point, but I believe poor game planning, coupled with the lack of in-game adjustments has been the biggest culprit.

Buffalo is my 7th highest rated team according to my Power Ratings, and their sack ratio is outstanding at 41-15.

The missing defensive players certainly contribute to their poor defensive numbers, which are not playoff worthy. Buffalo must sweep games vs. New England and at Miami to get to a 4-2 Divisional record. The schedule is rough, and they will miss the playoffs if they go 0-2 at KC and home to Dallas.

Bottom line: Josh Allen takes too many unnecessary chances, and the staff sometimes forgets to run the ball to mix up the offensive game plan. Buffalo has a bye this week, and must use the time to reassess their offensive strategy.

Cleveland Browns (7-4) CONTENDER

There are enough winnable games on the schedule to give Cleveland a clear path to the playoffs despite some concerns on my part. In the did you know department, Cleveland has allowed nearly 30 points per game on the road, and their two road wins were by scores of 33-31 and 39-38.

The good news is that the Browns are #1 in pass defense %, and have 34 defensive sacks. The bad news is uncertain QB play, and a -7 turnover ratio. It looks like Myles Garrett will not miss any time. The Browns should sneak into the playoffs with a manageable back end of the schedule. Garrett’s presence is certainly an important part of the equation.

Denver Broncos (6-5) PRETENDER

I thought about this one a long time, but much of what Denver has accomplished has been by smoke and mirrors. I give Sean Payton enormous credit for molding Russell Wilson into an interception-free QB, but most of the time he is throwing short passes to RB’s in order to avoid turnovers. Maybe that turnover ratio is sustainable, but the sack ratio is just 23-33 and the run defense has NOT improved during the win streak.

Denver’s next three games are all on the road (Houston, LA Chargers, Detroit). Despite a currently playoff-worthy Power Rating, I think Denver might be the odd team out based on the numbers.

Houston Texans (6-5) CONTENDER

One rule that delivers time and time again is the old “addition by subtraction” mantra. A bad coach exits and a new coach reaps the benefits. Lovie Smith brought this team down in 2022, but DeMeco Ryans has this team playing above all expectations, especially with a rookie QB and virtually no run game.

They fall into pretender mode if they lose this week at home to Denver, mainly because the stat sheet still shows more problem areas (run offense, pass defense) as opposed to areas of strength (run defense). I put them into contender status because in addition to hosting Denver, they play Tennessee twice, travel to the NYJ, and host Cleveland. Beat Denver, and 9-8 is possible, putting them in a situation when the finale at Indy could be for a playoff berth.

Indianapolis Colts (6-5) CONTENDER

This is all about the schedule, which was perceived to be the AFC’s easiest prior to September and that assessment has not changed. RB Taylor is rounding into form, and WR Pittman is already a force in the NFL. I rate the defense as slightly below average, with the exception of their ability to rush the QB. Remaining road games are at Tennessee, Cincinnati and Atlanta. Remaining home games are vs. Pittsburgh, Las Vegas and Houston. Contender does NOT mean they will make the playoffs, but I give them a strong chance to split these six games, putting playoff tiebreakers in play.

Las Vegas Raiders (5-7) PRETENDER

The interim coach adrenaline push lasted almost four weeks, but KC overcame a 14-0 deficit last week to put a damper on this team’s playoff hopes. I like that they have a week off right now to reset, but the lack of a playoff caliber roster is quite evident. The defensive numbers are not of playoff caliber. Rookie QB Aiden O’Connell is holding his own, but has thrown six interceptions in his short time as a Raider.

Las Vegas needs four wins to get to 9-7, where playoff tiebreakers are likely to kick in. I don’t see that happening.

Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) PRETENDER

LA still has four divisional games, but must go 5-1 to be considered in potential tiebreaker scenarios. The pass defense is not good enough, and the run game doesn’t scare anyone. In addition, home field advantage is non-existent. PASS.

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4) CONTENDER

Everyone thinks they are frauds, but any team with T.J. Watt on it is automatically a contender. The Steelers will be favored in three of their remaining six games, and the game at Indy could be close to a tossup. With a 3-1 divisional record and a home game left vs. the Bengals, this team has enough defense to achieve a playoff berth.

Tennessee Titans (4-7) PRETENDER

As a run-first team, Mike Vrabel’s team tries to keep rookie QB Will Levis out of harm’s way, but my Power Number for this team suggests that they may have a ceiling of 7-10. I do not have them as above average in any one area, and I do not believe the OL will hold up if they are forced to pass in obvious passing down and distance situations.

NEXT WEEK: A look at the NFC playoff race, and which teams are contenders or just pretenders.
Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris

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