New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Picks, Prediction and Odds

Miami finally snapped its six-game losing streak last week, but how much that win actually means may not be known until a few hours before kickoff. This Patriots vs Dolphins prediction has a unique twist: the 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday start means bettors will see the Jets host the Raiders first, and that result could tell us whether Miami’s breakthrough was real or just a win over one of the league’s worst teams.

New England comes in with extra rest after a loss in Chicago, and the Patriots’ last four games have all gone over the total. The spread has hovered around a touchdown, but there’s a strong case this one should be closer to double digits. Before you finalize your NFL picks, here’s a complete breakdown of the odds, line movement, matchups, and best bets.

Patriots vs Dolphins Quick Picks and Prediction

Spread Pick: New England Patriots -7 (-105)
Total Pick: Over 43.5 (-110)
Projected Final Score: Patriots 30, Dolphins 17

Odds and Line Movement for New England vs Miami

The spread opened at New England -7.5, climbed as high as -8.5, and has since dropped to -7 with the Patriots attracting most of the spread action. The total has flipped repeatedly between 43.5 and 44.5 before settling at 43.5. Follow every move with our live odds.

Opening Odds

Team	Spread	Total
New England Patriots	-7.5 (-115)	Over 44.5 (-108)
Miami Dolphins	+7.5 (-105)	Under 44.5 (-112)

Current Odds

Team	Spread	Total
New England Patriots	-7 (-105)	Over 43.5 (-110)
Miami Dolphins	+7 (-115)	Under 43.5 (-110)

Line Movement – Spread

Date	New England	Miami
10/28	-7 (-105)	+7 (-115)
10/27	-7 (-108)	+7 (-112)
10/26	-7.5 (-105)	+7.5 (-115)
10/26	-7 (-115)	+7 (-105)
10/25	-7.5 (-105)	+7.5 (-115)
10/22	-8.5 (-110)	+8.5 (-110)
10/20	-7.5 (-115)	+7.5 (-105)

Line Movement – Total

Date	Over	Under
10/29	43.5 (-110)	43.5 (-110)
10/29	43.5 (-115)	43.5 (-105)
10/28	43.5 (-118)	43.5 (-102)
10/28	44.5 (-102)	44.5 (-118)
10/28	43.5 (-118)	43.5 (-102)
10/28	44.5 (-102)	44.5 (-118)
10/28	43.5 (-118)	43.5 (-102)
10/28	44.5 (-102)	44.5 (-118)
10/28	43.5 (-118)	43.5 (-102)
10/27	44.5 (-105)	44.5 (-115)
10/26	44.5 (-108)	44.5 (-112)

Key Matchups and Handicap: Patriots vs Dolphins

New England won and covered both meetings with Miami last season, and both games went over the total. That sweep reversed a long run of Dolphins dominance in this AFC East series, as Miami had won seven of the previous eight meetings before last year.

The Patriots had a couple of extra days to prepare after falling 30-24 in Chicago last Thursday. That loss snapped a three-game winning streak, but New England’s offense has been productive, with each of its last four games going over the total.

Miami snapped its six-game losing streak with a 28-25 win over the Jets last week. The Dolphins were coming off a bye, and first-year head coach Jeff Hafley had to be encouraged by what he saw from his struggling team coming out of the break.

One notable adjustment has been the increased use of quarterback Malik Willis as a runner. After averaging just 4.75 rushing attempts through Miami’s first four games, Willis has carried the ball eight times in each of the last two games. He’s averaged 55.5 rushing yards against the Bengals and Jets, with a rushing touchdown in each game.

The 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff adds an interesting layer to evaluating that win over the Jets. New York hosts the Raiders at 1 p.m. ET, with Las Vegas riding a four-game losing streak and getting crushed in its last four trips to the Eastern Time Zone. If the Jets beat the Raiders, Miami’s win gains a bit of legitimacy.

If the Jets lose, that victory is likely to be forgotten, as New York would be widely viewed as a bottom-five team or worse. Miami deserves credit for ending its losing streak, but it likely came against the worst-coached team in the league. This game projects closer to double digits than the current number suggests.

Betting Trends: NE vs MIA

The Patriots won and covered both meetings last season.
Both meetings last season went over the total.
Miami won seven of eight meetings prior to last season’s sweep.
New England’s last four games have all gone over the total.
The Patriots’ 30-24 loss in Chicago snapped a three-game winning streak.
Miami snapped a six-game losing streak with its 28-25 win over the Jets.
Public spread money has heavily backed New England.

Key Injuries and Notes: NE vs MIA

New England: The Patriots had extra rest after playing last Thursday in Chicago.
Miami: QB Malik Willis has rushed eight times in each of the last two games.
Miami: Willis is averaging 55.5 rushing yards over his last two games with a rushing touchdown in each.
Miami: First-year head coach Jeff Hafley picked up his first win since the bye week.
Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, after the Jets host the Raiders at 1 p.m. ET.

ATS and Total Picks for Patriots vs Dolphins

ATS Pick: The spread has dropped from 8.5 to 7, giving New England backers a better number. The Patriots won and covered both meetings last season, had extra time to prepare, and face a Dolphins team whose lone win came against what may be the worst-coached team in the league. This game projects closer to double digits, making the touchdown spread a value. Take the Patriots -7.

Total Pick: The total has settled at 43.5 after bouncing between that number and 44.5. New England’s last four games have all gone over, and both meetings last season cleared the total. Willis’ growing role as a runner gives Miami’s offense another dimension, which should help the Dolphins contribute enough points to push this past the number. Take the over 43.5.