New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Picks, Predictions and Best Bets For Week 4 October 4, 2026
Drake Maye once went 20 straight weeks without throwing multiple interceptions in a game. He has now done it in three of his last four, and the next stop is Orchard Park against a Buffalo offense that ranks No. 1 in the NFL in EPA per rush attempt.
This Patriots vs Bills prediction digs into a rivalry where the road team won and covered both meetings last season, the line movement that pushed Buffalo to -6.5, the injuries on both sides and the totals trends pulling in opposite directions. If you want more winning angles across the league, check out our free NFL picks.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Bills moneyline
- Spread Pick: Bills -6.5 (-120)
- Total Pick: Under 48.5 (-110)
- Projected Final Score: Bills 27, Patriots 17
- Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park
Odds and Line Movement for Patriots vs Bills
Buffalo opened as a 5.5-point favorite and has been bet up through the week, touching -7 before settling at -6.5. For up-to-the-minute prices across sportsbooks, check the live odds before you place your bet.
Opening Odds
| Market | New England | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +5.5 (-110) | -5.5 (-110) |
| Total | Over 49.5 (-110) | Under 49.5 (-110) |
Current Odds
| Market | New England | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +6.5 (+100) | -6.5 (-120) |
| Total | Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110) |
Line Movement – Spread
| Date | New England | Buffalo | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/30 | +6.5 (+100) | -6.5 (-120) | BUF 77%, BUF 72% |
| 09/30 | +6.5 (-105) | -6.5 (-115) | BUF 72%, BUF 70% |
| 09/29 | +7 (-115) | -7 (-105) | BUF 67%, BUF 71% |
| 09/29 | +6.5 (-105) | -6.5 (-115) | BUF 67%, BUF 71% |
| 09/29 | +7 (-115) | -7 (-105) | BUF 67%, BUF 71% |
| 09/29 | +6.5 (-105) | -6.5 (-115) | BUF 67%, BUF 71% |
| 09/27 | +7 (-115) | -7 (-105) | NE 65%, BUF 57% |
| 09/22 | +5.5 (-110) | -5.5 (-110) | N/A |
Line Movement – Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/29 | 48.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | UN 77%, OV 56% |
| 09/29 | 48.5 (-105) | 48.5 (-115) | UN 77%, OV 56% |
| 09/27 | 48.5 (-110) | 48.5 (-110) | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 09/22 | 49.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | N/A |
Patriots vs Bills Key Matchups and Handicap
This AFC East rivalry has produced surprises recently, with the road team winning and covering both meetings last season. That history will tempt some bettors toward New England, but the current form of these two teams points in very different directions. Buffalo’s offense is one of the most efficient units in the league, while New England’s offense is in a turnover-fueled slump that it has not been able to shake.
New England Offense Searching for a Spark
New England’s offense has stalled badly. The Patriots were sacked three times and turned the ball over three times in last week’s 35-6 loss in Jacksonville. Six points against any opponent is a red flag, and the issues go beyond one bad afternoon. Since the start of last season’s playoffs, New England’s games have averaged just 29.9 total points. If the Patriots are going to find an offensive spark, Orchard Park is a reasonable place to look, but they have shown little evidence that it is coming.
Patriots QB Drake Maye Turnover Problems
From Week 1 of last season through the AFC Championship Game, Drake Maye went 20 consecutive weeks without throwing multiple interceptions in a game. That streak is long gone. Including the Super Bowl loss to the Seahawks, Maye has thrown multiple interceptions in three of his last four games, the latest coming in last week’s ugly loss to the Jaguars. A quarterback in a turnover slump facing an offense that can punish short fields is a difficult combination for a road underdog.
Buffalo Offense Ranks Among NFL’s Elite
Even with all of last week’s turnover issues against the Chargers, Buffalo’s offense remains elite by the numbers. The Bills rank No. 2 in EPA per play, No. 5 in offensive success rate, No. 2 in EPA per drop-back, No. 1 in EPA per rush attempt and No. 1 in rushing success rate. Those rankings have come against a schedule featuring three teams that all finished above .500 last season, so this is not production padded by weak opponents.
Bills Comfortable in New Highmark Stadium
The Bills have moved across the street from the old Highmark Stadium into the new version, and this is their third straight game in the new building. Familiarity matters, and Buffalo should be fully settled into its new surroundings by now. A team on its third consecutive home date also avoids the travel and routine disruptions that can affect performance.
NE Road Success in the Rivalry
The road team won and covered both meetings last season. New England pulled off a 23-20 upset as a 7.5-point road underdog in Buffalo last October, and the Bills returned the favor in a big matchup in Foxboro two months later. In both games, the team that won the yardage battle lost the game. That pattern shows how turnovers and situational football have decided this rivalry, and that is exactly where New England has been struggling most this season.
Patriots Under Streak
Dating back to the start of last year’s playoffs, six of New England’s last seven games have stayed under the total. The lone over was the Divisional Round playoff game against the Texans, which featured five fumbles and five interceptions. Strip out that chaotic outlier, and the Patriots have been one of the most reliable under teams in the league over this stretch.
BUF Home Overs at Highmark
On the other side of the totals equation, Bills home games since the start of the 2024-25 season have gone 15-7 to the over. That trend is the strongest case for the over, and it creates a genuine conflict with New England’s under streak. The deciding factor is which offense shows up. Buffalo can score in bunches, but the Patriots’ offense has been so limited that it may not hold up its end of a shootout.
Betting Trends: NE vs BUF
The spread has moved a full point toward Buffalo since opening, and the total has dipped a point with the money favoring the under.
Patriots Betting Trends
- New England opened at +5.5 and has moved to +6.5, briefly reaching +7.
- The Patriots drew 65% of the spread money early in the week before support shifted to Buffalo.
- Six of New England’s last seven games have stayed under the total, dating back to last season’s playoffs.
- Those seven games have averaged 29.9 total points.
- New England won and covered as a 7.5-point road underdog in Buffalo last October.
Bills Betting Trends
- Buffalo opened at -5.5 and is now -6.5 (-120), with the heavy juice suggesting a possible move to 7.
- The Bills hold 77% of the spread money and 72% of tickets in the latest update.
- Bills home games since the start of the 2024-25 season are 15-7 to the over.
- The total opened at 49.5 and dropped to 48.5, with 77% of the money on the under.
- The road team won and covered both meetings last season.
Key Injuries and Notes: NE vs BUF
New England Injury Report
- Christian Barmore (DT): Left last week’s game with a shoulder injury
- AJ Brown (WR): Injured reserve
- Drake Maye has thrown multiple interceptions in three of his last four games.
- The Patriots lost 35-6 at Jacksonville last week.
Buffalo Injury Report
- Christian Benford (CB): Seen in a walking boot after suffering a toe injury against the Chargers
- Buffalo has otherwise remained in relatively good health through the first three weeks.
- This is the Bills’ third straight game at the new Highmark Stadium.
- Buffalo ranks No. 1 in EPA per rush attempt and rushing success rate.
Patriots vs Bills ATS and Total Picks
BUF -6.5 Spread Pick
This is not one of the strongest plays on the card, but our projection has this game lined above a touchdown, which makes -6.5 an appealing number. Buffalo’s offense ranks among the league’s best in nearly every efficiency metric, and it has produced those numbers against a strong early schedule. New England is coming off a 29-point loss, its quarterback is in a turnover slump and its best receiver remains on injured reserve. Barmore’s shoulder injury could also weaken the Patriots’ ability to slow Buffalo’s top-ranked rushing attack.
- Pick: Bills -6.5 (-120)
Buffalo vs New England Total Pick
The totals trends conflict, with Buffalo’s home overs on one side and New England’s run of unders on the other. We side with the under because the Patriots’ offense has been too limited to push this game into the 50s. The total has already dropped from 49.5 to 48.5 with most of the money on the under. If Buffalo controls the game on the ground and New England’s offense continues to sputter, a final score in the low to mid 40s is the most likely outcome.
- Pick: Under 48.5 (-110)
Patriots vs Bills Best Bets
Our top plays for this matchup lean on Buffalo’s efficiency and New England’s offensive struggles. The Bills on the moneyline is the safest way to back Buffalo, while the spread offers more value given that our number sits above a touchdown. The under ties the card together, as a Buffalo win built on its running game and a stalled New England offense keep the scoreboard in check.
- Moneyline: Bills moneyline
- Spread: Bills -6.5 (-120)
- Total: Under 48.5 (-110)
- Parlay Option: Bills -6.5 and Under 48.5
Final Score Prediction for Patriots vs Bills
Expect Buffalo to lean on the league’s most efficient rushing attack and take advantage of any mistakes from Maye. New England’s defense may keep things competitive early, but the Patriots’ offense has not shown enough to keep pace, and the Bills should pull away in the second half for a double-digit win.
- Projected Final Score: Bills 27, Patriots 17
- Moneyline: Bills win
- Spread: Bills -6.5 (-120) covers
- Total: Under 48.5 (-110) cashes with 44 combined points
