Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders Picks, Predictions and Best Bets For Week 4 October 4, 2026
Strip away the three touchdowns Washington got from Seattle turnovers last week, and the Commanders’ offense looked like this on its other ten possessions: punt, punt, punt, touchdown, punt, field goal, punt, punt, punt, field goal. That stat sets the tone for Sunday’s trip to London, where Washington meets an Indianapolis team that just won by playing keep-away, at a stadium that has turned NFL games into low-scoring grinds.
Our Colts vs Commanders prediction breaks down the line movement, the London scoring trends, the injury reports, and the best bets for this cross-conference matchup. For more winning plays this week, check out our NFL picks.
Colts vs Commanders Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Indianapolis Colts
- Spread Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 (-115)
- Total Pick: Under 48.5 (-112)
- Projected Final Score: Colts 20, Commanders 16
- Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England
Odds and Line Movement for Colts vs Commanders
Indianapolis opened as a 3.5-point favorite on September 27 and drew 97 percent of the early money. The line dipped to Colts -3 early on September 28 as Washington picked up a brief edge in money, but it returned to -3.5 later that same day and has stayed there ever since. The juice is now the story, with the Colts priced at -115 and 88 percent of the money on Indianapolis, while Washington holds 60 percent of the tickets.
The total has been on the rise. It bounced between 46.5 and 47.5 several times on September 28 before holding at 47.5 through September 30, then climbed to 48.5 on October 1. Over bettors control 92 percent of the money and 66 percent of the tickets, which gives under backers a better number than the market started with. Track the latest prices before kickoff with our live odds.
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | -3.5 (-105) | Over 47.5 (+100) |
| Washington Commanders | +3.5 (-115) | Under 47.5 (-120) |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | -3.5 (-115) | Over 48.5 (-108) |
| Washington Commanders | +3.5 (-105) | Under 48.5 (-112) |
Line Movement – Spread
| Date | Indianapolis | Washington | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02 | -3.5 (-115) | +3.5 (-105) | IND 88%, WAS 60% |
| 10/01 | -3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-110) | IND 55%, WAS 60% |
| 09/30 | -3.5 (-112) | +3.5 (-108) | IND 53%, WAS 55% |
| 09/29 | -3.5 (-108) | +3.5 (-112) | IND 53%, WAS 53% |
| 09/29 | -3.5 (-112) | +3.5 (-108) | IND 65%, WAS 54% |
| 09/28 | -3.5 (-108) | +3.5 (-112) | IND 53%, IND 50% |
| 09/28 | -3.5 (-102) | +3.5 (-118) | IND 54%, IND 59% |
| 09/28 | -3.5 (+100) | +3.5 (-120) | IND 54%, IND 59% |
| 09/28 | -3 (-115) | +3 (-105) | IND 55%, IND 67% |
| 09/28 | -3 (-118) | +3 (-102) | IND 55%, IND 67% |
| 09/28 | -3 (-112) | +3 (-108) | WAS 58%, IND 75% |
| 09/27 | -3.5 (-102) | +3.5 (-118) | IND 97%, IND 86% |
| 09/27 | -3.5 (-105) | +3.5 (-115) | IND 97%, IND 86% |
Line Movement – Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01 | 48.5 (-108) | 48.5 (-112) | OV 92%, OV 66% |
| 10/01 | 47.5 (-112) | 47.5 (-108) | OV 89%, OV 67% |
| 09/30 | 47.5 (-108) | 47.5 (-112) | OV 81%, OV 60% |
| 09/30 | 47.5 (-105) | 47.5 (-115) | OV 81%, OV 60% |
| 09/30 | 47.5 (-108) | 47.5 (-112) | OV 81%, OV 60% |
| 09/28 | 47.5 (-102) | 47.5 (-118) | OV 82%, OV 63% |
| 09/28 | 46.5 (-118) | 46.5 (-102) | OV 82%, OV 63% |
| 09/28 | 47.5 (-102) | 47.5 (-118) | OV 82%, OV 63% |
| 09/28 | 46.5 (-120) | 46.5 (+100) | OV 82%, OV 63% |
| 09/28 | 47.5 (+100) | 47.5 (-120) | OV 82%, OV 63% |
Indianapolis vs Washington Key Matchups and Handicap
This is the first meeting between these cross-conference opponents since Washington won in Indianapolis in October 2022. Both teams arrive off gritty wins, but the way each team won says a lot about what to expect in London.
Colts and Commanders Head to a Low-Scoring London Venue
Sunday’s game will be the 13th played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium since 2019, and the venue has leaned heavily toward defense lately. The last six games played there have averaged just 40.0 total points. Last year’s two games at the stadium were perfect examples, with Minnesota beating Cleveland 21-17 and Denver edging the Jets 13-11. A total sitting in the high 40s looks out of step with that recent history.
Colts Win the Possession Battle
Indianapolis picked up its first win of the season in gutsy fashion against Houston. The Colts’ defense held the Texans to 223 total yards, 17 first downs, and 4.4 yards per play. Offensively, Indianapolis simply kept the ball away from Houston, running 20 more plays, converting 7 of 15 third downs, and going 2-for-2 on fourth down. Kicker Spencer Shrader was the hero despite battling a groin injury suffered in pregame warm-ups, going 4-for-4 on field goals, including a 58-yarder at the end of the first half and the game-winning 53-yarder with 16 seconds left.
Commanders Grind Out an Upset
Washington showed its own toughness last week, holding off Seattle as an eight-point home underdog. The box score was not kind to the Commanders. The Seahawks out-gained them by 179 yards and held a 2.8 yards per play advantage. What Washington did well was avoid mistakes, finishing with zero turnovers while Marcus Mariota was sacked only twice.
WAS Offense Without the Turnover Gifts
A closer look at that Seattle win exposes the problem. Three of Washington’s touchdowns came directly off Seahawks turnovers, with one drive starting at the Seattle 21-yard line, another starting at the 32, and an interception returned for a touchdown. On drives that started in a conventional manner, the Commanders punted seven times and managed one touchdown and two field goals. Counting on another wave of short fields would be a mistake, especially against a Colts team built to control the ball.
Indianapolis Passing Game Lacks Punch
Washington’s defense has some major holes, but Indianapolis is not well equipped to exploit them. The Colts rank 28th in EPA per drop-back and 19th in passing success rate, and losing wide receiver Alec Pierce leaves a big hole in a passing attack that was already struggling. Expect Indianapolis to lean on the same ball-control approach that worked against Houston rather than trying to win a shootout.
IND vs WAS Betting Trends
- This is the first meeting between the Colts and Commanders since Washington won in Indianapolis in October 2022.
- The last six games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium have averaged 40.0 total points.
- Last year’s games at the stadium finished 21-17 and 13-11.
- Indianapolis held Houston to 223 total yards and 4.4 yards per play last week.
- Washington won as an eight-point home underdog against Seattle despite being out-gained by 179 yards.
- Three of Washington’s touchdowns last week came directly off Seattle turnovers.
- The Colts rank 28th in EPA per drop-back and 19th in passing success rate.
- The total has risen from 47.5 to 48.5 with 92 percent of the money on the over.
- Indianapolis has held at -3.5 with 88 percent of the money, while Washington draws 60 percent of the tickets.
IND vs WAS Key Injuries and Notes
- Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels missed last week’s win over Seattle.
- Commanders: TE Chig Okonkwo, OG Samuel Cosmi, LB Frankie Luvu, and S Nick Cross also missed last week’s game.
- Commanders: LB Leo Chenal suffered a season-ending injury against Seattle.
- Commanders: Marcus Mariota started last week and played turnover-free football.
- Colts: WR Alec Pierce has been placed on IR with a heel injury.
- Colts: K Spencer Shrader is dealing with a groin injury suffered in pregame warm-ups last week.
Washington’s injury report has been a mess all season, and the losses stretch across all three levels of the roster. The Colts’ biggest concern is in the passing game, where Pierce’s absence takes away one of the few reliable options in an already limited attack.
Indianapolis vs Washington ATS and Total Picks
ATS Pick: Colts -3.5 (-115). Indianapolis has the more complete team in this matchup and the formula to win it. The Colts controlled the clock against Houston and shut down the Texans’ offense, while Washington is banged up and relied on turnovers to manufacture its points last week. Without short fields, the Commanders’ offense has struggled to finish drives, and a Colts team that controls possession should be able to win by more than a field goal.
Total Pick: Under 48.5 (-112). This is the strongest angle on the board. The last six games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium averaged 40.0 points, the Commanders’ offense sputters on conventional drives, and the Colts’ passing game ranks near the bottom of the league and just lost Pierce. A ball-control game plan from Indianapolis shortens the game even further, and the over-heavy action has pushed this total a full point higher than where it sat for most of the week.
Colts vs Commanders Best Bets
- Best Bet: Under 48.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: Indianapolis Colts
- Spread: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 (-115)
The Under is the top play, backed by the London venue’s scoring history and two offenses with clear limitations. The Colts on the moneyline and spread complement it well, as an Indianapolis team that plays keep-away should grind out a win over a depleted Washington roster.
Final Score Prediction for Colts vs Commanders
Expect a grinding, field-position game in London. Indianapolis will lean on its defense and its ability to sustain drives, while Washington will need another round of takeaways to keep pace. Without those gifts, the Commanders’ offense should stall often enough for the Colts to pull out a close, low-scoring win.
- Projected Final Score: Colts 20, Commanders 16
- Moneyline Pick: Indianapolis Colts
- Spread Pick: Colts -3.5 (-115)
- Total Pick: Under 48.5 (-112)
