Best First Touchdown Props Picks NFL Week 4

Best NFL First Touchdown Props Predictions for Week 4!

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NFL Week 4 First Touchdown Props Prediction: Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions (+360)

Jahmyr Gibbs has scored first in Weeks 2 & 3 as he has the advantage over David Montgomery as he’s the feature back on the first scripted drive of the game.

Last season, Montgomery beat Gibbs 7-6 in team first touchdowns and 6-5 in game first touchdowns. However, Gibbs has seen 15 red area touches in 2025 while Montgomery has only seen 8 and Monty has yet to eclipse a 39% snap share.

The Cleveland Browns haven’t scored first yet this season after only striking first in 5/17 games (29.4%) during the 2024 campaign.

Meanwhile the Detroit Lions have found paydirt first in 2/3 games this season and in 12/18 games (66.7%) during the 2024 season.

The Lions are 10-point home favorites with a total of only 44.5. The Browns team total is set at 16.5 and they have only logged five touchdowns in three games while finishing with 13, 17 & 16 points. Detroit is going to score first in all likelihood, and I see Gibbs striking first for the 3rd straight week.

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NFL Week 4 First Touchdown Props Prediction: James Cook, Buffalo Bills (+380)

James Cook has scored an anytime touchdown in all three games to open the season (4 total) and he scored the first touchdown in Week 2 against the New York Jets on a one-yard rush.

During the 2024 campaign, Cook scored 6 team first touchdowns and 3 game first touchdowns. Surprisingly, there wasn’t much of difference in scoring first between the Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints during the 2024 campaign.

However, the Bills have struck first in 2/3 games in 2025 while the Saints have only scored first in 1/3 games.

The Saints defense has allowed 10 total touchdowns while allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 80% of their red area drives thus far in 2025.

New Orleans has allowed the 3rd fewest yards per carry (3.6), but they faced two opponents who haven’t run on anyone (ARZ & SEA), and Christian McCaffrey averaged 4.2 yards per carry against them last week.

Cook ranks 4th in red zone looks in the NFL (14) and he is 2nd to Josh Allen in goal line looks with four to Allen’s five.

The Bills are the biggest favorites on the Week 4 slate (-15.5), and the Saints are averaging less than 16 points per game.

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