Ben Burns College Football and NFL Betting Notes
College Football and NFL Betting Preview
WagerTalk handicapper Ben Burns offers analysis on games that just missed his weekend football card. Ben provides a reason or two why he was drawn in a particular direction, and why ultimately he decided to pass. Remember, these are not official plays, but just some helpful insight from one of the best football handicappers on the planet.
College Football Week 8 Betting Leans
Baylor -10 vs Kansas – Last week, I mentioned that I had hoped to get the Sooners at -7, against Kansas. That number was unavailable. So, I stayed off and the Jayhawks ultimately ended up covering the closing line of +10.5, losing by ten.
This week, I was again overly-optimistic in a game involving the Jayhawks. I had hoped to get Baylor at -8 or better. Though I’m expecting a fairly comfortable win by the Bears, the current number (-10.5 at some spots) will likely keep me on the sidelines.
Oklahoma State +6 vs Texas– Five-straight meetings between these teams have been decided by eight points or less. Two of them went to overtime. The close nature of this series combined with the fact that nobody has beaten the Cowboys by more than five points in nearly two years, makes it awfully tempting to take the points.
I don’t like the way that Oklahoma State lost at TCU last week, though. The Cowboys led the entire way and were still up by 14 into the fourth quarter. They ultimately lost in double-OT. That type of defeat can take a toll and linger for another week.
UTSA -10 vs North Texas– I had this one circled when the schedule came out. It’s Homecoming weekend in San Antonio and a huge game for the Roadrunners.
The winner of this fierce rivalry will be in the driver’s seat in Conference USA. The Roadrunners have a score to settle as North Texas ruined their dreams of an undefeated season last year. UTSA came into that game with an 11-0 record and a top-15 ranking in the national polls.
I’m starting to gain respect for the Mean Green though. They rushed for 469 yards last week, gaining 671 yards overall. The previous game, they gained 300 yards on the ground. North Texas has scored at least 45 in three of its last four games. Those are big time numbers. I think I’ll stay away.
NFL Week 7 Betting Leans
Green Bay Packers -4.5 at Washington Commanders – After the Packers followed up their loss to the Giants by getting blown out by the Jets, I considered backing them to bounce back.
A closer look at their depleted receiving corps gave me pause, though. I also feel that Taylor Heinicke may prove to be an upgrade over Carson Wentz. Recall that Washington, led by Heinicke, out-gained the Packers by a 430-to-304 margin last year (GB still won by 14, however).
Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 vs Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons can’t keep covering the point spread every week (can they?!?). I see Cincinnati beating them by at least a touchdown. I’m not nuts about the Bengals’ four-game winning streak, though. This run could have them patting themselves on the back a bit.
More importantly, I don’t like that Cincinnati faces Cleveland next week. Not only are the Browns a hated in-state division rival, but they’ve also beaten the Bengals four-straight times (and sevent of the last eight).
Recall the Bengals losing outright to the Jets as double-digit favorites, before facing the Browns last season. Pass.
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