2025 AFC West Predictions: Betting Picks and Insights for Every Team

The AFC West is once again a battleground for NFL supremacy. With major coaching moves, QB transitions, and evolving rosters, bettors need to stay sharp to capitalize on this division’s betting opportunities.

Let’s break down each team’s 2025 outlook through the lens of betting, picks, and win total predictions.

Denver Broncos: Trending Upward

Denver surprised many by finishing 10-7 in 2024 and becoming a playoff team. With a strong ATS record (12-5), they were a favorite for bettors. Entering 2025, they’re lined around 9-9.5 wins.

Positives:

• Strong coaching continuity under Sean Payton, Joe Lombardi (OC), and Vance Joseph (DC).
• Bo Nix enters his third season, providing more stability at QB.
• Major defensive additions like Drake Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga.

Concerns:

• Denver was extremely healthy last season and had one of the easiest schedules.
• Late-season schedule is brutal (KC, Washington, Vegas, GB, Jacksonville, KC, LAC).

Best Pick: Lean to Under 9.5 wins. Their price reflects a playoff contender, but regression from last year’s favorable conditions is likely.

Kansas City Chiefs: Champions with Depth Issues

Kansas City finished 15-2 in 2024, but were just 8-9 ATS in the regular season. They’re lined at 11.5 wins with slight juice to the under.

Positives:

• Andy Reid’s historical over-win total trend makes them a tough fade.
• Patrick Mahomes remains elite, and Matt Nagy and Spagnuolo return as coordinators.
• Draft filled needs well: WR, DL, OL.

Concerns:

• Cap space limited depth additions.
• OL concerns and WR unit still unproven (Rashee Rice, Skyy Moore returning from injury).
• Brutal early schedule (Chargers, Eagles, Ravens, Lions, Buffalo).

Best Pick: Avoid win total. Target weekly overs in matchups with weak defenses, especially if injuries pile up.

Las Vegas Raiders: Floor Raised, Ceiling Capped

After a 4-13 season, Vegas is lined at 6.5 to 7 wins. They made huge structural changes including hiring Pete Carroll as HC and signing Geno Smith.

Positives:

• Massive upgrade in coaching and QB stability.
• Defense retains DC Patrick Graham.
• Draft focused on offensive line and veteran depth.

Concerns:

• Worst net rest disadvantage in NFL (-19 days).
• Lost key defensive pieces.
• Still weak homefield advantage (2-6 at home last year).

Best Pick: Over 6.5 wins. Not a high-ceiling team, but their floor is solidified with upgrades in leadership and QB.

Los Angeles Chargers: Ground and Pound Reboot

LA is lined at 9.5 wins after an 11-6 2024 campaign. They benefited from a +12 turnover margin and an easy schedule.

Positives:

• Jim Harbaugh returns with both coordinators.
• Added power on OL and RB (Beckton, Najee Harris).
• Draft focused on reinforcing ground game and interior lines.

Concerns:

• Lost some defensive talent.
• Depth at WR and DL still questionable.
• Brutal closing stretch (Philly, KC, Dallas, Houston, Denver).

Best Pick: Look for early-season overs and potentially play Under 9.5 wins if they stumble late.

AFC West Futures Bets

• Most Valuable Over: Raiders (Over 6.5)
• Most Reliable Under: Broncos (Under 9.5)
• High-Risk Over: Chiefs (due to schedule/injuries)
• Value on Start/Finish Splits: Chargers (Fast start, slow finish)

Interested in More NFL Divisional Previews? Click Below!

2025 NFL Rule Changes

• Touchbacks on a kickoff will now give the receiving team the ball on the 35-yard line instead of the 30 in an effort to increase more kick returns and discourage touchbacks.
• The regular season overtime rules will now match the postseason overtime rules, as both teams will now have an opportunity to possess the ball regardless of the outcome of the first drive. Per Jon Ferrari of the Eagles, 37.5-percent of last year’s overtime games ended with a first-drive touchdown. The new rule will allow both teams to have the ball.
• The video review booth will have an increased role in assisting the on-field officials. The video assistants can’t put a flag on the field if they believe that the officials missed a call, but they can pick one up if an erroneous flag is thrown (i.e. a facemask penalty is called, but upon video review, it’s determined that the facemask was never actually grabbed).
• Artificial intelligence and lasers will be used to determine the remaining yardage for a first down. The officials are still responsible for spotting the football just like they always have, but technology will now do the job of the chain gang and they will no longer have to run in from the sidelines for a first down measurement. Once the official places the ball down, lasers will determine if the offense reached the first down line and/or how far away they are from reaching that mark.
• Teams that are trailing will now be able to attempt an onside kick at any point in the game from the 34-yard-line (instead of the traditional kickoff spot at the 35-yard-line). Previously, teams were only able to attempt an onside kick in the fourth quarter.

2025 Football GoldSheet Early Bird Special

Subscribe to the country’s longest-running sports betting newsletter for less than $7 per week. The Football GoldSheet will be your betting concierge through the 2025-26 football season, offering weekly NFL and NCAAF game previews, stat logs and much more. Early-bird subscribers will begin receiving preseason content in May as we recap the NFL draft and schedule release, plus season win totals and division previews.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all AFC West games from their release in May all the way through Week 1 in September. Find free NFL picks from season win total bets through Super Bowl futures on our free picks pages.

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