Rockets vs Spurs Prediction, Picks & Odds For October 23, 2026

Kevin Durant scored 30 points on 62.5 percent shooting, Houston led for 84 percent of the night and the Rockets rolled past Dallas 128-110 in their season opener. San Antonio’s debut looked very different, as Victor Wembanyama went just 1-of-13 from the field in a 116-104 loss to Oklahoma City.

Now these Southwest Division rivals meet on October 23, 2026, with the Spurs laying points at home and a growing injury list hanging over their rotation.

Our Rockets vs Spurs prediction breaks down the line movement, the shooting splits and why Houston should stay within the number in a game that projects to be higher scoring than the total suggests. For more free NBA picks, check out our full board before tipoff.

Rockets vs Spurs Quick Picks and Prediction

Spread Pick: Houston +5.5 (-112)
Total Pick: Over 228.5 (-105)
Projected Final Score: Spurs 117, Rockets 115

Odds and Line Movement for Rockets vs Spurs

San Antonio opened as a 7.5-point home favorite, but the spread has been bet down two full points to -5.5. The total has toggled between 227.5 and 228.5 and currently sits at 228.5. Follow every change on our odds page leading up to tipoff.

Opening Odds

Team	Spread	Total
Houston	+7.5 (-115)	Over 227.5 (-105)
San Antonio	-7.5 (-105)	Under 227.5 (-115)

Current Odds

Team	Spread	Total
Houston	+5.5 (-112)	Over 228.5 (-105)
San Antonio	-5.5 (-108)	Under 228.5 (-115)

Line Movement – Spread

Date	Houston	San Antonio
10/23	+5.5 (-112)	-5.5 (-108)
10/23	+5.5 (-118)	-5.5 (-102)
10/22	+5.5 (-112)	-5.5 (-108)
10/22	+5.5 (-102)	-5.5 (-118)
10/22	+6.5 (-118)	-6.5 (-102)
10/22	+5.5 (-102)	-5.5 (-118)
10/22	+6.5 (-118)	-6.5 (-102)
10/22	+5.5 (-102)	-5.5 (-118)
10/22	+6.5 (-115)	-6.5 (-105)
10/22	+6.5 (-110)	-6.5 (-110)
10/21	+6.5 (-105)	-6.5 (-115)
10/21	+6.5 (-110)	-6.5 (-110)
10/21	+7.5 (-115)	-7.5 (-105)

Houston money hit the board immediately, with 99 percent of the dollars on the Rockets pushing the spread from 7.5 to 6.5 on opening night. The number then flipped between 6.5 and 5.5 several times before settling at San Antonio -5.5. The Rockets currently hold 59 percent of the money and 56 percent of the tickets.

Line Movement – Total

Date	Over	Under
10/23	228.5 (-105)	228.5 (-115)
10/23	227.5 (-115)	227.5 (-105)
10/23	228.5 (-105)	228.5 (-115)
10/23	227.5 (-112)	227.5 (-108)
10/23	227.5 (-105)	227.5 (-115)
10/23	227.5 (-112)	227.5 (-108)
10/23	228.5 (-105)	228.5 (-115)
10/23	227.5 (-115)	227.5 (-105)
10/23	227.5 (-108)	227.5 (-112)
10/23	227.5 (-112)	227.5 (-108)
10/23	228.5 (-108)	228.5 (-112)
10/23	227.5 (-112)	227.5 (-108)
10/23	227.5 (-108)	227.5 (-112)
10/22	227.5 (-105)	227.5 (-115)

The total has bounced between 227.5 and 228.5 throughout game day, landing at 228.5 in the latest update. The over has been completely one-sided, attracting 100 percent of the money and 100 percent of the tickets.

Rockets vs Spurs Key Matchups and Handicap

Rockets Offense Firing in Opener

Houston’s offense was outstanding in its 128-110 win over Dallas. The Rockets shot 53 percent from the field and 44 percent from three-point range, recorded 32 assists and committed just 16 turnovers.

Kevin Durant led the way with 30 points on 62.5 percent shooting, and Fred VanVleet handed out 11 assists. That combination of efficient perimeter shooting, ball movement and Durant’s scoring ability presents a real challenge for San Antonio.

Houston Controls the Glass

The Rockets also controlled the boards, winning the rebounding battle 42-33 behind 10 rebounds from Amen Thompson. Houston led for 84 percent of the game against Dallas, showing it can dictate tempo against a division opponent. That rebounding edge should help the Rockets stay competitive on the road.

Spurs Offense Sputters Despite Wembanyama’s Defense

San Antonio struggled to score against Oklahoma City, shooting just 39 percent from the field and 27 percent from three-point range. Victor Wembanyama went 1-of-13 from the field, though he grabbed 13 rebounds and anchored a defense that blocked 11 shots.

Stephon Castle led the Spurs with 24 points, and De’Aaron Fox added seven assists. Even so, the Spurs’ defense allowed the Thunder to hit 45 percent of their three-point attempts, a concerning sign against a Houston team that just shot 44 percent from deep.

San Antonio Injury Concerns Mount

San Antonio’s availability picture is cloudy. Fox is uncertain because of a wrist injury, and Keldon Johnson is questionable with a mouth injury.

Tobias Harris is sidelined with a calf issue, and Jayden Quaintance remains out with a knee injury. The Spurs’ interior defense and home-court advantage should keep this game competitive, but those absences reduce their margin for error against a team laying fewer than six points.

Houston Depth Questions

Houston has availability concerns of its own. Steven Adams is questionable with a calf injury, and his absence could reduce the Rockets’ interior depth against Wembanyama.

Reed Sheppard is dealing with a knee issue, which could affect the backcourt rotation. Still, Houston’s offensive efficiency and rebounding performance suggest the Rockets can stay within the number even if both are limited.

HOU vs SA Betting Trends

Houston opened the season with a 128-110 win over Dallas and led for 84 percent of the game.
Houston shot 53 percent from the field and 44 percent from three-point range against Dallas.
Houston outrebounded Dallas 42-33.
San Antonio lost 116-104 to Oklahoma City while shooting 39 percent from the field and 27 percent from three.
San Antonio allowed Oklahoma City to hit 45 percent of its three-point attempts.
The spread dropped from San Antonio -7.5 to -5.5, with Houston holding 59 percent of the money and 56 percent of the tickets.
The over holds 100 percent of the money and tickets, with the total moving between 227.5 and 228.5.

HOU vs SA Key Injuries and Notes

San Antonio G De’Aaron Fox (wrist) is uncertain for this matchup.
San Antonio F Keldon Johnson (mouth) is questionable.
San Antonio F Tobias Harris (calf) is sidelined, and Jayden Quaintance (knee) remains out.
Houston C Steven Adams (calf) is questionable.
Houston G Reed Sheppard is dealing with a knee issue.
San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama shot 1-of-13 in the opener but added 13 rebounds and helped the Spurs block 11 shots.
Check final injury reports before tipoff, as Fox’s status in particular could move this line.

Rockets vs Spurs ATS and Total Picks

Rockets +5.5 Spread Pick

Houston showed in its opener that it can shoot, share the ball and control the glass, and those strengths travel. San Antonio’s offense struggled badly against Oklahoma City, and its defense gave up 45 percent from three.

With Fox uncertain and several other Spurs injured, San Antonio may not have the depth to pull away. The Spurs’ home court and interior defense should help them win a close game, which makes San Antonio the moneyline side, but the Rockets are the play with the points.

Pick: Houston +5.5 (-112)

HOU vs SA Over Pick

Houston scored 128 points in its opener on elite shooting efficiency, and San Antonio has scoring options in Castle, Fox and Wembanyama, who should bounce back after a 1-of-13 night.

The Spurs’ perimeter defense struggled against Oklahoma City, which bodes well for a Rockets team that just hit 44 percent from three. The total looks slightly low given those offensive profiles, and the over has drawn every tracked bet.

Pick: Over 228.5 (-105)

Rockets vs Spurs Best Bets

Best Bet: Houston +5.5 (-112)
Total: Over 228.5 (-105)

The strongest play is Houston with the points. The Rockets’ efficient offense, ball movement and rebounding advantage should keep them close, and the market has already moved two points in their direction. San Antonio’s home court gives it a slight edge to win the game, making the Spurs the moneyline pick, while both teams’ scoring potential supports the over.

Final Score Prediction for Rockets vs Spurs

Durant keeps Houston within striking distance all night, and the Rockets’ ball movement creates plenty of open looks against San Antonio’s perimeter defense. Wembanyama bounces back, Castle stays aggressive and the Spurs hold on late at home, but Houston covers comfortably in a high-scoring game.